THREAD ON NEPAL
Scenario 1: If Oli Steps Down
•For Nepal-
Political instability will rise for a while (because of new elections or coalition fights).
But if an India-friendly or centrist PM comes to power, chances of stability increase.(1/N)
Scenario 1: If Oli Steps Down
•For Nepal-
Political instability will rise for a while (because of new elections or coalition fights).
But if an India-friendly or centrist PM comes to power, chances of stability increase.(1/N)
•For India-
Beneficial: the border issue could soften, and connectivity projects may speed up.
Security and coordination along the open border would improve.
India will get the chance to regain its influence in Nepal (which China had taken during Olis tenure).(2/n)
Beneficial: the border issue could soften, and connectivity projects may speed up.
Security and coordination along the open border would improve.
India will get the chance to regain its influence in Nepal (which China had taken during Olis tenure).(2/n)
•For China-
With Oli gone, China will lose a strong supporter.
China will have to put in more effort to bring the new leader on its side.(3/n)
With Oli gone, China will lose a strong supporter.
China will have to put in more effort to bring the new leader on its side.(3/n)
Scenario 2: Hung Parliament or Weak Coalition
•For Nepal-
Greater political instability, with frequent government changes.
Development projects will slow down. (4/n)
•For Nepal-
Greater political instability, with frequent government changes.
Development projects will slow down. (4/n)
•For India & China-
Both countries will try to exert their influence, making Nepal a geopolitical playground.
For India its a mixed situation, and for China as well
(5/5)
Both countries will try to exert their influence, making Nepal a geopolitical playground.
For India its a mixed situation, and for China as well
(5/5)
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