Thread by @HannaLiubakova

What do all these military drills in #Belaris and #Russia mean? Here's your backgrounder 🔽

#Zapad2025 is a large-scale joint military exercise happening Sept 12-16, 2025, the first big drills since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Unlike earlier Zapad exercises, there is a pronounced focus on nuclear escalation and offensive scenarios, including simulating an attack corridor through Poland and Lithuania - a clear shift from defensive posturing.

Belarusian dictator Lukashenka calls the drills de-escalatory but simultaneously announces the planning of the use of Russian nuclear assets and Oreshnik, showing his limited independence yet an attempt to calm the West.

Belarus increasingly acts as a forward Russian military base: permanent infrastructure, munitions depots, rail links, and now integration of new nuclear-capable missile systems, Oreshnik, represent major strategic shifts.

#Zapad2025 blends traditional warfare with hybrid tactics - drone incursions (notably into Poland), airspace violations, GPS jamming, cyberattacks, disinformation, and migration controls along NATO's borders.

Officially, Russia & Belarus are training to repel attacks on their "Union State," restore territory, and coordinate defense/offense. But drills notably include rehearsing offensive breaks through the Suwalki corridor connecting Belarus and Kaliningrad.

The Kaliningrad region is militarily critical to Russia. These drills simulate defending it from NATO - effectively rehearsing offensive moves into Poland and Lithuania under the guise of defense.

Troop numbers are uncertain - Belarus initially said 13,000, then half that, but Western estimates suggest 20,000-30,000. This is down from some 200,000 in Zapad 2021 due to Ukraine war strains.

The drills come days after Russian drones entered Poland, prompting NATO's first direct engagement with Russian targets since 2022, raising fears that Zapad masks real military moves or provocations.

Regional responses include Poland, Lithuania and Latvia tightening border & airspace controls, Poland deploying 40,000 troops, and NATO states remain alert for cyber, drone and hybrid threat activity during Zapad.

At least 500 Belarusian firms - some "front" companies - are actively producing and supplying arms for Russia, circumventing sanctions. This shows Belarus' deep integration into Russian war efforts. Check @osbbelpol data.

In summary, #Zapad2025 is more than a routine drill - it's a strategic demonstration of Russia’s military reach, Belarus' role as Moscow's forward outpost, and a warning signal to NATO amid continuing regional tensions.