Fear & Greed Index dropped 20 points in 4 days
Short-term holders panic selling at a loss
I analyzed 16 years of on-chain data and spotted a pattern
Here’s what it means for crypto and what’s next 👇🧵
Short-term holders panic selling at a loss
I analyzed 16 years of on-chain data and spotted a pattern
Here’s what it means for crypto and what’s next 👇🧵
✦ Before we dive in :
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1/
✦ The weak hands are blinking first
✦ Short-term holders the under-155 day crowd are back to dumping at a loss after months of holding
✦ They’re the first to crack when momentum fades
✦ This shift marks the start of a bigger rotation beneath the surface
✦ The weak hands are blinking first
✦ Short-term holders the under-155 day crowd are back to dumping at a loss after months of holding
✦ They’re the first to crack when momentum fades
✦ This shift marks the start of a bigger rotation beneath the surface
2/
✦ Flash selling by STHs isn’t random it’s the fear trade
✦ Quick-profit wallets get trapped in chop, then rush for exits
✦ That supply gets scooped up by bigger players who plan to hold
✦ Every panic unload is someone else’s cheap entry
✦ Flash selling by STHs isn’t random it’s the fear trade
✦ Quick-profit wallets get trapped in chop, then rush for exits
✦ That supply gets scooped up by bigger players who plan to hold
✦ Every panic unload is someone else’s cheap entry
3/
✦ Each cycle repeats the same rinse
✦ STH capitulation → LTH accumulation → base gets stronger
✦ When weak hands puke, strong hands reload quietly
✦ These flows build the launchpad for the next leg up
✦ Each cycle repeats the same rinse
✦ STH capitulation → LTH accumulation → base gets stronger
✦ When weak hands puke, strong hands reload quietly
✦ These flows build the launchpad for the next leg up
4/
✦ Right now coins bought at the highs are flooding spot markets
✦ CT screams bearish, but long-term holders aren’t budging
✦ That split between panic and patience is your real signal
✦ Under the noise, structural demand is still there
✦ Right now coins bought at the highs are flooding spot markets
✦ CT screams bearish, but long-term holders aren’t budging
✦ That split between panic and patience is your real signal
✦ Under the noise, structural demand is still there
5/
✦ Derivatives have already started their reset
✦ Funding drops, open interest wipes, leverage unwinds
✦ It’s ugly short-term but clears the runway for a clean rally
✦ Bitcoin always self-flushes before it takes off again
✦ Derivatives have already started their reset
✦ Funding drops, open interest wipes, leverage unwinds
✦ It’s ugly short-term but clears the runway for a clean rally
✦ Bitcoin always self-flushes before it takes off again
6/
✦ Panic ≠ the start of a crash
✦ Short-term holders are dumping at a loss classic late-stage fear
✦ This is when the herd thinks the top is in
✦ Smart money uses this exact window to buy quietly
✦ Panic ≠ the start of a crash
✦ Short-term holders are dumping at a loss classic late-stage fear
✦ This is when the herd thinks the top is in
✦ Smart money uses this exact window to buy quietly
7/
✦ Macro still matters: delayed rate cuts, dollar strength, liquidity drain all risk accelerators
✦ If long-term holders hold firm while short-term players fold, downside stays capped
✦ Watch conviction, not the headlines
✦ Macro still matters: delayed rate cuts, dollar strength, liquidity drain all risk accelerators
✦ If long-term holders hold firm while short-term players fold, downside stays capped
✦ Watch conviction, not the headlines
8/
✦ For traders, the edge is simple: don’t chase panic
✦ Tighten risk if you’re long, but don’t dump at local bottoms
✦ If you’re short, know you’re riding weak hands when they run out, shorts get trapped
✦ For traders, the edge is simple: don’t chase panic
✦ Tighten risk if you’re long, but don’t dump at local bottoms
✦ If you’re short, know you’re riding weak hands when they run out, shorts get trapped
9/
✦ Strategic moves right now:
-Track SOPR, exchange inflows, derivatives
-Watch for stabilization after liquidations
-Look for quiet LTH accumulation during sell-offs
✦ These signals front-run the next major move
✦ Strategic moves right now:
-Track SOPR, exchange inflows, derivatives
-Watch for stabilization after liquidations
-Look for quiet LTH accumulation during sell-offs
✦ These signals front-run the next major move
10/
✦ This phase = a healthy flush, not a cycle-ending collapse
✦ Capitulation clears leverage and refreshes momentum
✦ Treat it as a reset before the next leg higher
✦ Long-term trend still leans bullish with conviction in strong hands
✦ This phase = a healthy flush, not a cycle-ending collapse
✦ Capitulation clears leverage and refreshes momentum
✦ Treat it as a reset before the next leg higher
✦ Long-term trend still leans bullish with conviction in strong hands
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✦ Drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to follow
@philarekt for more content like this! 👇
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https://x.com/philarekt/status/1967241277025726680
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