Thread by @provisionalidea

there’s an old truism that a country’s elites have more in common with other countries’ elites than their own countrymen.

this shared class identity and American pining after Arab wealth led the Arab autocrats to believe they were seen as allies and equals. they were wrong. 1/9

https://twitter.com/mazmhussain/status/1967664076756238689

global elites, many of whom are US-educated, have likewise long believed liberal capitalism is sacrosanct to Americans — that doing business and making a profit supersedes all else. if US business interests could be protected, the aegis of Pax Americana would cover you. 2/9

what the attack on Qatar showed is that Israel is valued higher than even capitalism in America. no amount of shared business interests, investments, arms deals, or even military bases are enough to protect you if the colony has you in its sights. this was shocking to many. 3/9

for those paying attention, it’s another step in America’s commitment to a more chaotic, might-makes-right world, but to elder statesmen who got used to the institutions and mechanisms of the liberal world order, this was a red line nobody thought would be crossed. 4/9

murtaza recently wrote about how huntington’s worldview proved correct, and while I am no fan of huntington, history has shown that *american elites* ascribe to the huntingtonian worldview — and increasingly so (as do a revanchist russia and ascendant hegemonic china). 5/9

the imposition of huntingtonianism from the world’s ailing hegemon is now forcing a downstream adaptation from countries realizing (too late!) that they have a target on their back. this response will be regional, but not huntingtonian — take eg arab-persian rapprochement 6/9

it is also worth noting that emerging american huntingtonianism does not see the classical western alliance as allies. the view from washington is increasingly classically colonial (even before trump) where you are either a subject of the american empire, or outside it 7/9

what the americans do not realize is that their abandonment of the liberal world order does not mean that view simply disappears, particularly since the emerging hegemon (china) sees significant power and opportunity in it, and the rest of the world appreciates the stability 8/9

ultimately this will lead to a shift away from american arms and defence agreements, and uniting of the world behind a new liberal economic order increasingly sans america. but it will be a very bumpy ride getting there, with a fair amount of blood shed. 9/9