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David Kirichenko Profile picture
@DVKirichenko
Sep 16 • 12 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
1/ Only Ukraine can teach NATO how to combat Putin’s growing drone fleet

Nineteen Russian drones recently crossed into Polish airspace—the largest NATO violation yet.

Polish PM Donald Tusk called it “the closest we’ve been to open conflict since WWII.”

🧵 Image
2/ Former US Army Europe commander Ben Hodges: the Kremlin wanted to measure NATO’s response times & capabilities.

“Using F-35s and F-22s against drones shows we are not yet prepared,” he warned. kyivindependent.com/romania-was-cl…
3/ A huge imbalance...

Cheap drones vs. expensive missiles is unsustainable.

Russia is forcing NATO into a cost trap and exposing how unready Europe is for drone swarms that Ukraine faces daily.

Europe prepared for a conventional war.

kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-sh…
4/ Since 2022, drones have become the decisive weapon in Ukraine’s skies, seas & cities.

Russia now launches waves of hundreds, sometimes >800 drones at once.

Europe has no answer for that scale. npr.org/2025/09/07/nx-…
5/ Ukrainian commanders like Robert “Magyar” Brovdi have been warning NATO to prepare for the future with masses of cheap drones.

His message in July: "What will NATO do if Shaheds fly over Europe? Your doctrines need an urgent review."
6/ At first, the West didn’t listen.

That changed after Russia’s latest incursion into Poland.

Now, Ukraine will train Polish forces in anti-drone tactics, with more NATO countries likely to follow.
kyivindependent.com/poland-to-send…
7/ Polish FM Radosław Sikorski: “The Ukrainians have better equipment for dealing with Russian drones and more up-to-date experience.”

"It is the Ukrainians who will be training us on how to stand up to Russia, not the other way around."
atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
8/ US envoy Keith Kellogg agrees: Ukraine has become a “world leader” in drone warfare.

Even Washington is behind.

"Ukraine seems now to be a world leader in defense technology... A pretty good argument for making it a member of the European Union."

kyivindependent.com/us-behind-ukra…
9/ Zelensky stressed that no one has enough missiles to shoot down the large volumes of drones currently deployed by the Kremlin.

A new approach is needed: ground-based air defenses, jet fighters, defensive drones, helicopter patrols, & propeller planes. reuters.com/business/aeros…
10/ Indeed, Kyiv is already deploying interceptor drones.

They are cheap and are one scalable solution to counter swarms.

Britain is already helping mass produce them.

Soon, Ukraine will be churning out thousands per month to meet the threat. defensenews.com/global/europe/…
11/ Putin is probing NATO with drones today.

Tomorrow, he may escalate with swarms across Europe, as his appetite for escalation grows.

NATO must learn fast.

Only Ukraine has the hard-earned experience to teach it how. politico.com/news/magazine/…
End of the thread 🧵

Source: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…

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More from @DVKirichenko

David Kirichenko Profile picture
Sep 18
1/ Ukraine is taking the war deep into Russia’s heartland.

Drone strikes are hitting Moscow, St. Petersburg, and oil refineries across the country—undermining Putin’s war economy.

This drone campaign is already driving downstream economic shocks across Russia.

🧵 Image
2/ On Sept 9, a Ukrainian drone struck Sochi just hours after Putin held meetings there.

Three days later, another drone hit the Primorsk oil terminal near St. Petersburg—forcing Russia’s largest crude port to suspend operations. bbc.com/news/articles/…
3/ The strikes are intensifying Russia’s fuel crisis.

Ukraine has disabled 17–21% of Russia’s refining capacity.

Fuel prices have risen 25%, with shortages hitting Crimea & remote regions hardest.
Read 5 tweets
David Kirichenko Profile picture
Sep 17
1/ The Serebrianskyi Forest near Lyman has burned for 3 years straight—pummeled by strikes, swept by fires, and shaken by constant explosions.

Endless assaults, house-to-house fighting, and watchful eyes & ears prevail under drone-filled skies.

A report from the front.

🧵 Image
2/ Deputy commander “Babay” checks for FPV drones before driving us to the frontline HQ of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade’s unmanned systems battalion.

The roads are covered w/ wooden posts & netting “fish nets” against Russian drones.

They only have 20% of what they need.
3/ “You can see the devastation everywhere. The Serebrianskyi Forest has been under fire for three years straight,” Babay says.

“Fires sweep through constantly, destroying positions and equipment. Last year it was so bad we couldn’t even use the roads.”
Read 20 tweets
David Kirichenko Profile picture
Sep 15
1/ Militarnyi: Ukraine’s summer strikes on Russia’s Shahed drone production & storage sites have paid off.

In August, Russian Shahed launches dropped by one-third - from 6,303 in July to 4,132.

🧵 Image
2/ Targets hit:

- Izhevsk “Kupol” plant (drone assembly & microchips)

- Warhead production sites near Moscow

- Krasnozavodsk chemical plant (thermobaric munitions)

- A Russian ship hauling Shahed parts from Iran -- sunk in the Caspian Sea Image
3/ In Tatarstan, SBU strikes destroyed a massive Shahed storage hub 1,300 km from Ukraine.

Satellite images confirmed multiple hits, wiping out stockpiles and disrupting supply chains linked to Iran. kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-s…
Read 5 tweets
David Kirichenko Profile picture
Sep 15
1/ Pokrovsk, once known as the birthplace of “Carol of the Bells,” is a frontline fortress.

Russia is preparing what it calls a “decisive breakthrough” to capture the city.

Ukraine’s defenders are under immense pressure, but they are holding.

🧵 Image
2/ I was near Pokrovsk last summer, watching villages fall days after civilians were evacuated.

A year later, the city still stands.

That survival alone is a victory, but the battle has only intensified.
3/ Putin reportedly told Trump he planned to seize the Donbas in “2–4 months.”

Lofty words - but since late 2022, Russia has gained less than 1% of Ukraine’s land, losing hundreds of thousands of soldiers in the process.
Read 15 tweets
David Kirichenko Profile picture
Sep 11
1/ A new era of asymmetric warfare.

Ukraine has leveraged unmanned systems to fight back and inflict heavy damage on Russia.

Russia is learning from its mistakes with time - so is The Axis of Evil.

NATO used vey costly systems to shoot cheap Russian drones over Poland.

🧵 Image
2/ When 19 Russian drones crossed into Poland’s airspace, PM Donald Tusk warned his country was at its “closest to open conflict since WWII.”

For Putin, it was a message of defiance to NATO, but also he, saw how the West would react in the future.
3/ In the current war, Ukraine has leaned on unmanned systems to offset Russia’s mass.

FPV drones that cost a few hundred dollars have destroyed tanks worth millions.

Kyiv has built a “drone wall” that is now the backbone of its defense.

Read 24 tweets
David Kirichenko Profile picture
Sep 5
1/ For centuries, russia’s vast size has been its greatest strength - making it nearly unconquerable.

Now Ukraine is flipping that advantage into a weakness with long-range bombing raids against russian oil refineries.

Now Ukraine is turning russia’s geography against it:

🧵 Image
2/ Since early in the war, Ukraine has targeted russian oil refineries.

But in recent months, the campaign has intensified.

By late August, strikes disrupted 17–20% of russia’s refining capacity - creating fuel shortages & record gas prices. Image
3/ The Kremlin relies heavily on oil & gas revenues to fund the war effort and pay huge enlistment bonuses to attract soldiers.

Every refinery knocked offline makes this harder to sustain. Image
Read 14 tweets

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