Thread by @JacobMagid

🧵SCOOP: Trump has authorized Tony Blair to rally regional & international stakeholders around former UK PM's proposal to establish a post-war transitional body to govern Gaza until it can be handed over to PA, 4 sources familiar told @TimesofIsrael (1/29) timesofisrael.com/revealed-tony-…

Blair began crafting the proposal in the early months of the war between Israel and Hamas, envisioning it as a plan for the so-called “day after.” But in recent months, the proposal has also evolved into a plan for effectively ending the war... (2/29)

... as the Trump admin has reached the conclusion that agreement from major stakeholders on what will replace Hamas in Gaza is essential for securing a permanent ceasefire and hostage release deal, a US official and a second source familiar with the matter said. (3/29)

While Blair’s involvement in post-Gaza war planning has been previously revealed, along with his participation in an August 27 White House policy session on the matter, details of his proposal have not been publicized to date. (4/29)

The proposal — a developed draft of which was obtained and authenticated by @TimesofIsrael — envisions the establishment of the Gaza International Transitional Authority (GITA) along with a series of subservient structures.

Pictured: Key Org chart from Blair plan (5/29)

Previous reporting has linked Blair to efforts aimed at displacing Palestinians from Gaza or at building a “Trump Riviera” in Strip, but Blair's actual proposal makes no mention of those ideas & even envisions the establishment of “Property Rights Preservation Unit”... (6/29)

...aimed at ensuring any voluntary departure of Gazans doesnt compromise their right to return to enclave or retain property ownership.

“We dont have a plan to move Gazan population out of Gaza. Gaza is for Gazans,” said a source involved in discussions on the Blair plan. (7/29)

Other plans presented to the Trump administration by those with ties to Netanyahu’s confidant Ron Dermer, those involved in the establishment of GHF and BCG did promote the idea of facilitating or encouraging the “voluntary migration” of Palestinians from Gaza. (8/29)

But Trump — who first gave legitimacy to the concept in Feb when he announced plan to take over Gaza and perm relocate its population — has since distanced from the idea, and during the Aug 27 meeting made clear he was going with Blair’s plan instead, the US official said. (9/29)

The US official noted that Smotrich is apparently unaware of that decision, given that he declared on Wednesday that the Gaza Strip is a potential real estate “bonanza” and that he was in talks with Washington on how to divide up the coastal enclave after the war. (10/29)

The Aug 27 meeting was organized by the US president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who served as senior adviser during Trump’s first term and has remained engaged on Middle East issues in the second term, regularly advising US special envoy Steve Witkoff. (11/29)

Like Kushner, Witkoff has been tasked with a variety of portfolios. The current special envoy has hired limited support staff, though, and Kushner has been helping with Gaza day-after planning, as it is increasingly seen as critical for securing a war-ending hostage deal (12/29)

In the spring, Kushner commissioned the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), which was already engaged on the issue thanks to the former UK prime minister’s ties with Israeli, PA and Arab leaders, the US official said. (13/29)

Blair began regular engagement with Trump officials, keeping them abreast on his progress as he met with leaders throughout the region and began ironing out details of his plan, the source familiar with discussions added. (14/29)

Blair met Abbas in July, thanks to Gulf pressure on Ramallah to engage with the initiative, Arab diplo said.

While PA expresses desire to directly oversee post-war governing body in Gaza & Blair plan falls short of that, source familiar said PA “engaging constructively.” (15/29)

Blair’s proposal envisions PA undergoing major reforms & its involvement in GITA largely to coordination. Still, PA is explicitly mentioned throughout plan that envisions “eventual unifying of all Palestinian territory under PA” — a development that Bibi has long fought (16/29)

Nonetheless, the source familiar said Israel has also engaged constructively with Blair’s effort.

The Arab diplo expressed skepticism, claiming Bibi has history of dispatching Dermer to engage on sensitive matters before later thwarting them to keep coalition intact. (17/29)

Trump, though, was impressed by Blair’s initiative and told him to get “Johnny” on board, the US official said, recalling how Trump referred to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during the August 27 White House meeting. (18/29)

The US views Saudi as one of the most critical players when it comes to post-war reconstruction, with enough sway to get rest of region on board.

While Trump gave Blair his blessing, he also gave him 2-week window to secure regional support for plan, US official said. (19/29)

That deadline has since expired, but the timeline was one the president has used somewhat regularly without sticking to it.

During that period, Blair was also hobbled by the US issuing visa bans against senior PA officials – ... (20/29)

... a decision that led to delays in some of the British premier’s meetings with Gulf officials who didn’t want to be seen as endorsing the administration’s decision by immediately meeting with an effective Trump envoy right afterward, the Arab diplomat said. (21/29)

More damaging to Blair’s effort, though, was Israel’s September 9 strike targeting Hamas leaders in Doha, the source familiar with discussions said.

Blair had been engaging Egypt and Qatar about coaxing Hamas not to stand in the way of the plan, the source said. (22/29)

While Blair’s effort was temporarily derailed by the Israeli strike, engagement has since resumed, the source said.

The Doha strike also highlighted what may be one of the main obstacles Blair faces in trying to sell his plan to Israel. (23/29)

Because while Netanyahu says the strike was aimed at sending a message to Hamas’s leadership — even those involved in hostage talks — that Israel will settle scores w/ all of them, Blair’s plan indicates goal will be to neutralize Hamas through non-military means. (24/29)

Those include establishing an alternative to Hamas through the GITA, but the plan also explicitly refers to the concept of “disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration” or DDR. (25/29)

Rubio may have been referring to this idea when he said during a press conference with Netanyahu in Jerusalem that “Hamas can no longer continue to exist as an armed element,” as opposed to asserting that Hamas cannot exist at all, which has been Bibi's framing. (26/29)

In meantime, the Arab diplo said Blair also faces uphill battle getting Riyadh & other stakeholders on board, as theyre conditioning support on creation of irreversible pathway to future Pal state — something Bibi has long rejected. (27/29)

The aforementioned pathway is one of a list of principles that Arab stakeholders are demanding be folded into any plan that they’re being asked to bankroll, the Arab diplomat said. (28/29)

Still, the source involved in discussions said that Blair has made inroads with regional stakeholders and is racing to advance his plan within a short time frame.

“We don’t have months or weeks. We have days,” the source said (29/29)