1/ Ukraine is taking the war deep into Russia’s heartland.
Drone strikes are hitting Moscow, St. Petersburg, and oil refineries across the country—undermining Putin’s war economy.
This drone campaign is already driving downstream economic shocks across Russia.
🧵
Drone strikes are hitting Moscow, St. Petersburg, and oil refineries across the country—undermining Putin’s war economy.
This drone campaign is already driving downstream economic shocks across Russia.
🧵
2/ On Sept 9, a Ukrainian drone struck Sochi just hours after Putin held meetings there.
Three days later, another drone hit the Primorsk oil terminal near St. Petersburg—forcing Russia’s largest crude port to suspend operations. bbc.com/news/articles/…
Three days later, another drone hit the Primorsk oil terminal near St. Petersburg—forcing Russia’s largest crude port to suspend operations. bbc.com/news/articles/…
3/ The strikes are intensifying Russia’s fuel crisis.
Ukraine has disabled 17–21% of Russia’s refining capacity.
Fuel prices have risen 25%, with shortages hitting Crimea & remote regions hardest.
Ukraine has disabled 17–21% of Russia’s refining capacity.
Fuel prices have risen 25%, with shortages hitting Crimea & remote regions hardest.
https://x.com/evgen1232007/status/1967606636677358077
4/ Polls show the pressure is biting.
A record 66% of Russians say it’s time for peace talks, while support for continuing the war has dropped to 27%—the lowest ever.
In June, 58% of Russians cited rising prices as their top concern in an earlier poll.
A record 66% of Russians say it’s time for peace talks, while support for continuing the war has dropped to 27%—the lowest ever.
In June, 58% of Russians cited rising prices as their top concern in an earlier poll.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1968404364457853134
5/ While public frustration with the war is rising, elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg remain more resilient to disruption — for now.
Popova: elites have a high tolerance for war-related disruptions and these strikes can become politically destabilizing only in the long-term.
Popova: elites have a high tolerance for war-related disruptions and these strikes can become politically destabilizing only in the long-term.
6/ Kyiv’s strategy is clear: hit Russia’s economic lifeline.
Oil revenues fund Putin’s war.
Zelensky calls these drone attacks “the most effective sanctions.”
Even Transneft warns intake may have to be cut if strikes continue. reuters.com/business/energ…
Oil revenues fund Putin’s war.
Zelensky calls these drone attacks “the most effective sanctions.”
Even Transneft warns intake may have to be cut if strikes continue. reuters.com/business/energ…
7/ Western sanctions are also squeezing Russia, forcing a return to 1990s-style barter.
Putin expressed frustration w/ officials as growth flatlined & budget shortfalls swelled to 4.2 trillion rubles — 150 times more than a year earlier. reuters.com/business/finan…
Putin expressed frustration w/ officials as growth flatlined & budget shortfalls swelled to 4.2 trillion rubles — 150 times more than a year earlier. reuters.com/business/finan…
8/ Drones are also disrupting Russian business.
To block Ukrainian guidance systems, the Kremlin has resorted to mass internet blackouts—costing up to $557M per hour nationwide.
Banks now report surges in cash hoarding. ft.com/content/42b8f4…
To block Ukrainian guidance systems, the Kremlin has resorted to mass internet blackouts—costing up to $557M per hour nationwide.
Banks now report surges in cash hoarding. ft.com/content/42b8f4…
9/ Russian aviation has been in chaos.
Between Jan–May, airports shut down 217 times due to Ukrainian drones—more than in 2023 & 2024 combined.
In Moscow, half of all flights were disrupted this spring. reuters.com/world/europe/m…
Between Jan–May, airports shut down 217 times due to Ukrainian drones—more than in 2023 & 2024 combined.
In Moscow, half of all flights were disrupted this spring. reuters.com/world/europe/m…
10/ The impact is strategic as well as psychological.
Every drone that hits Moscow or St. Petersburg forces scarce Russian air defenses away from the battlefield, stretching an already strained system. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Every drone that hits Moscow or St. Petersburg forces scarce Russian air defenses away from the battlefield, stretching an already strained system. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
11/ As Hudson Institute’s @LukeDCoffey put it: “Russia’s great strategic asset throughout history has been its size. But with Ukraine’s drones, that size is now a liability. Russia simply cannot defend every site.”
tvpworld.com/88968799/zapad…
tvpworld.com/88968799/zapad…
@LukeDCoffey 12/ Beyond the battlefield, the war is also reshaping how Russia is perceived abroad.
Even as far back as 2023, many Afghans in Kabul began to “now see Russia as a dangerous place where drones regularly strike the capital.” newsweek.com/ukraine-russia…
Even as far back as 2023, many Afghans in Kabul began to “now see Russia as a dangerous place where drones regularly strike the capital.” newsweek.com/ukraine-russia…
@LukeDCoffey 13/ Ukraine's growing strength will increase pressure.
Trump can pair sanctions with Kyiv’s kinetic campaign.
“Russia’s oil exports remain its economic lifeline. This is why President Trump has placed so much emphasis on the issue,” @LukeDCoffey.
Trump can pair sanctions with Kyiv’s kinetic campaign.
“Russia’s oil exports remain its economic lifeline. This is why President Trump has placed so much emphasis on the issue,” @LukeDCoffey.
https://x.com/stratcomcentre/status/1968319732681228659?s=46
14/ “Modern war is a war of resources, and Ukraine is a David that tries to find Goliath’s weaknesses,” said Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defense minister.
As Ukraine ramps up production of its long-range drone and missile arsenal, the tempo of attacks may rise.
As Ukraine ramps up production of its long-range drone and missile arsenal, the tempo of attacks may rise.
Russia weighs tax increase as economic pressures mount, Reuters reports. kyivindependent.com/russia-weighs-…
The West should pair more economic sanctions with Kyiv’s kinetic sanctions.
https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1968608108332056682
Price increase
https://twitter.com/evgen1232007/status/1968669568018088004
Some serious damage.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1968587199873503321
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