NFL Survivor Week 3 Picks:
🔹Top 6 Candidates
🔹Odds & Popularity
🔹When to Play vs. Save
We’ve helped players win $6.6M+ in Survivor since 2017.
If you skipped BUF, here’s how to handle Week 3👇
🔹Top 6 Candidates
🔹Odds & Popularity
🔹When to Play vs. Save
We’ve helped players win $6.6M+ in Survivor since 2017.
If you skipped BUF, here’s how to handle Week 3👇
6. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
📍 at Titans
📊 Win odds: 66%
Sneaky leverage play. We project them at <5% popularity across all pools, making them attractive in large contests if you’re trying to dodge the chalk.
They don’t carry much future value, so you aren’t burning a premium team early. But in smaller or casual pools, you probably don’t need to get this contrarian.
📍 at Titans
📊 Win odds: 66%
Sneaky leverage play. We project them at <5% popularity across all pools, making them attractive in large contests if you’re trying to dodge the chalk.
They don’t carry much future value, so you aren’t burning a premium team early. But in smaller or casual pools, you probably don’t need to get this contrarian.
5. ATLANTA FALCONS
📍 at Panthers
📊 Win odds: 68%
Better win odds than Indy, and another way to diversify if you’re aiming contrarian.
Falcons still come in low popularity but with higher future value than the Colts.
They’ll face CAR again at home later this season (wk 11) and have two divisional games vs NO, plus Wk 8 home game vs. Miami.
That makes this a trickier call—you get short-term leverage but risk burning a team that could be useful later.
📍 at Panthers
📊 Win odds: 68%
Better win odds than Indy, and another way to diversify if you’re aiming contrarian.
Falcons still come in low popularity but with higher future value than the Colts.
They’ll face CAR again at home later this season (wk 11) and have two divisional games vs NO, plus Wk 8 home game vs. Miami.
That makes this a trickier call—you get short-term leverage but risk burning a team that could be useful later.
4. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
📍 at Giants (SNF)
📊 Win odds: 73%
The Chiefs stand out because they’re the least popular team with 70%+ win odds (~8%). If you’re hunting leverage, KC has it.
But here’s the catch: the Chiefs do have future value. You may want to hold them until later in the year when they’re healthier and have more favorable matchups.
Example - among top projected win odds Week 7 vs. LVR.
In Circa Survivor, KC is also a consideration for both holiday slates—another reason to think twice about burning them now.
📍 at Giants (SNF)
📊 Win odds: 73%
The Chiefs stand out because they’re the least popular team with 70%+ win odds (~8%). If you’re hunting leverage, KC has it.
But here’s the catch: the Chiefs do have future value. You may want to hold them until later in the year when they’re healthier and have more favorable matchups.
Example - among top projected win odds Week 7 vs. LVR.
In Circa Survivor, KC is also a consideration for both holiday slates—another reason to think twice about burning them now.
3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
📍 vs Jets
📊 Win odds: 73%
The Bucs are favored by 6.5 at home vs the Jets, who are rolling out backup QB Tyrod Taylor. On the surface, a strong spot.
But it’s not risk-free. Tampa has offensive line injuries to account for, and they carry medium-high future value with four games against CAR and NO still ahead.
Popularity sits around 13%, we project—not chalk, but not sneaky either. They’re a balanced play, but not a slam dunk.
📍 vs Jets
📊 Win odds: 73%
The Bucs are favored by 6.5 at home vs the Jets, who are rolling out backup QB Tyrod Taylor. On the surface, a strong spot.
But it’s not risk-free. Tampa has offensive line injuries to account for, and they carry medium-high future value with four games against CAR and NO still ahead.
Popularity sits around 13%, we project—not chalk, but not sneaky either. They’re a balanced play, but not a slam dunk.
2. GREEN BAY PACKERS
📍 at Browns
📊 Win odds: 79%
The Packers are one of the strongest win odds teams this week (outside of BUF on TNF), favored by 7.5.
Their popularity is moderate, making them a decent expected value play in Week 3.
But Green Bay also has major future value. In our ratings, it ranks third overall for long-term usefulness.
They face CIN without Joe Burrow (Week 6), CAR (Week 9), and CHI (Week 14).
So yes, they’re a decent play on paper this week. But if you burn them too early, you might regret it later when pool size shrinks and premium options are thin.
Especially in pools with multi-pick weeks later.
📍 at Browns
📊 Win odds: 79%
The Packers are one of the strongest win odds teams this week (outside of BUF on TNF), favored by 7.5.
Their popularity is moderate, making them a decent expected value play in Week 3.
But Green Bay also has major future value. In our ratings, it ranks third overall for long-term usefulness.
They face CIN without Joe Burrow (Week 6), CAR (Week 9), and CHI (Week 14).
So yes, they’re a decent play on paper this week. But if you burn them too early, you might regret it later when pool size shrinks and premium options are thin.
Especially in pools with multi-pick weeks later.
1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
📍 vs Saints
📊 Win odds: 78%
Seattle is one of the biggest decision points of Week 3.
This is the chalk play. Seattle projects to be extremely popular, especially in sharper pools and contests with multi-pick weeks.
And the popularity is justified. The Seahawks have very little future value. This is the best time to use them all season as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The only issue: expected value. Because so many people will take them, the payoff for surviving with Seattle isn’t as high. But if your goal is to advance and save premium teams, this is the move.
📍 vs Saints
📊 Win odds: 78%
Seattle is one of the biggest decision points of Week 3.
This is the chalk play. Seattle projects to be extremely popular, especially in sharper pools and contests with multi-pick weeks.
And the popularity is justified. The Seahawks have very little future value. This is the best time to use them all season as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The only issue: expected value. Because so many people will take them, the payoff for surviving with Seattle isn’t as high. But if your goal is to advance and save premium teams, this is the move.
TLDR:
• Colts/Falcons → contrarian leverage, but thinner win odds.
• Chiefs/Bucs → solid spots, but both carry future value.
• Packers → good on paper, but better spots coming.
• Seahawks → chalk play, little future value, key decision point.
• Colts/Falcons → contrarian leverage, but thinner win odds.
• Chiefs/Bucs → solid spots, but both carry future value.
• Packers → good on paper, but better spots coming.
• Seahawks → chalk play, little future value, key decision point.
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Our NFL Survivor tool has guided $6.6M+ in survivor winnings since 2017.
Check it out here ⤵️
poolgenius.teamrankings.com/nfl-survivor-p…
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