How Estonia/NATO responds (and responded today) to air space violations by Russia. A quick calm down for those who scream "why did not you shoot them down".
Short answer is - there was no need, this time.
Who commands and controls?
The Baltic Air Policing mission is a NATO peacetime QRA mission covering Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Allied fighter detachments rotate in (typically from Šiauliai, Lithuania and Ämari, Estonia), ready 24/7.
The CAOC (=Combined Air Operations Centre) with authority to task Baltic QRA is CAOC Uedem (Germany) for the area; CAOCs plan, task and direct air assets, working with national CRCs and QRA units.
The practical sequence (as it happened today)
1. Detect & Assess
NATO sensors (radar network, CRC inputs, AWACS, and liaison contacts) detect an inbound track approaching or inside Baltic sovereign airspace. The CAOC/CRC evaluates transponder, flight plan and behavior. NATINADS provides the integrated picture.
2. Scramble QRA fighters
If identification/intent is unclear or the track violates or threatens sovereign airspace, the CAOC/CRC orders the QRA on alert (based at Ämari/Šiauliai or other regional QRA) to scramble and intercept. Fighters can be airborne in minutes. F-35s at Ämari responded.
3. Identification and initial contact
Interceptors perform BVR identification (radar datalink / IFF) then close for visual ID (VID) if needed. They attempt radio contact on guard and ATC frequencies and monitor transponder/squawk. All contact attempts and imagery/video are recorded as evidence.
4. Visual signals & escort
Standard internationally recognized visual signals (wing-rock, rocking of ailerons, hand signals from the cockpit, and specific manoeuvres) are used to order the intruder to follow or to land. The interceptors then escort the aircraft out of the sovereign airspace (as happened today) or to a designated airfield if compliance is achieved.
5. Escalation ladder / ROE application
NATO follows a graduated response: radio warnings → visual signals/escort → more assertive manoeuvres (e.g., getting between intruder and sensitive assets).
Use of force (shoot-down) is an extreme, last measure and normally requires national political/military authorization and a clear hostile act or intent (necessity + proportionality). National rules of engagement provide the legal basis and CAOC coordinates the intercept. Historical NATO ROE guidance allows national action in self-defence.
Fighters are presumed potentially armed (weapons can be internal, stowed, or jettisoned). Behaviour, location, transponder status and compliance drive threat assessment
Final authority to use lethal force rests with national command. Interceptors act under national ROE and standing NATO direction; an immediate self-defence response can be taken by pilots if under attack, but otherwise kinetic measures require higher authorization. NATO
Evidence preservation and political handling matter. Radar tracks, radio calls, and gun-camera/HUD footage are captured to support diplomatic protest, Article 4/5 consultations or legal follow-up. Today, the Estonian government decided to trigger NATO Article 4 consultations.
6. NATO Baltic-specific practicalities & risks
QRA aircraft are coalition jets (rotational). CAOC Uedem tasks them but the national government, currently Italian, owning those jets retains ultimate ROE/command for use of force. That means political/national calculation happens fast.
The environment is congested (busy corridors, civilian traffic, close proximity to Russian bases). Intercepts are routine — NATO stresses professionalism and minimum necessary force to avoid miscalculation.
Bottom line
In the Baltics, MiGs entering NATO airspace — even without visible weapons — will trigger a NATO QRA intercept ordered by CAOC Uedem and flown by the rotational detachment (Ämari/Šiauliai). The intercept follows a graded ladder: identify, contact, visual signals, escort out — and only escalate to force under strict national ROE and only on clear hostile intent or act.
Today self-defence by our pilots was not needed, clear hostile intent was not evident. This does not mean we will not reconsider next time.
A chapter has closed in Estonian history. Ovid Avarmaa, the last surviving World War II resistance figure and operative of the Estonian National Committee—which fought against both Nazi and Soviet occupations—passed away in Montreal, Canada, at the age of 104.
Avarmaa was born in Tartu, Estonia, on September 24, 1920. The only child of merchant navy captain Niilo Avarmaa (originally Nikolai Akkermann until Estonianization in 1937) and Elizabeth Sokk. His father, a notable mariner who survived a celebrated shipwreck in 1911, was later arrested by Soviets and spent over a decade in prison camps. Ovid’s wider family included figures such as Taavet Avarmaa (David Akkermann), a jurist and political notable, and cpt Juhan Avarmaa, a military officer
Avarmaa attended Hugo Treffner Gymnasium in Tartu, graduating from the humanities track in 1938, with particular achievements in music, religious studies, languages, and history. He then entered the law faculty at the University of Tartu in 1938.
The current attitude of the US administration to small states has been compared to the Athenians, described by Thucydides in the The Peloponnesian War. 1/
The famous para by Thucydides is this (5:89):
"For ourselves (=Athenians), we shall not trouble you (Island of Melos, ally of Sparta) with specious pretences—either of how we have a right to our empire because we overthrew the Mede (Persia), ; 2/
"or are now attacking you because of wrong that you have done us—and make a long speech which would not be believed; " ( in short, we don't bother with moral arguments because we are strong) 3/
80 years ago 17 East European nations were sold out to communist tyranny so that the West could enjoy peace and liberal democracy. 30 years ago Eastern Europe won back its freedom despite efforts of our friends to “keep stability”. 1/6
Now it seems its up to Europe to decide. Do we want to be united and win or be divided between the “great powers” again. 2/6
Its not time to be shocked, insulted nor afraid. Its time for Europe to raise to the challenge. Putin united Ukraine, Ukraine cemented itself in Europe and Trump, albeit accidentally, is uniting Europe 3/6
A bit about the constitutional crises in Georgia.
President @Zourabichvili_S has 1. declared Parliamentary elections illegitimate. 2. declared the a Russian operation is ongoing attempting to take over Georgia 3. said the sitting government is illegitimate
1/n
This has sever constitutional consequences.
Article 49.1 of Georgian Constitution states:
The President of Georgia is the Head of the state of Georgia and is the guarantor of the country’s unity and national independence.
2/n
The President has stated that the independence of the nation is under threat.
She should declare the state of Emergency, but she cannot because the Prime Minister should propose this.
Its obvious the illegitimate PM will not do it.
3/n
As a reminder to my friend @vkaramurza, this is what Solzhenitsyn wrote on "Russian guilt."
"But who, if not we ourselves, constitutes society? This realm of darkness, of falsehood, of brute force, of justice denied and distrust of the good, this slimy swamp was formed by us, and no one else. We grew used to the idea that we must submit and lie in order to survive-and we brought up our children to do so."
"A n d if we now long - - and there is a glimmer of hope that we do - t o go forward at last into a just,
clean, honest society- how else can we do so except
by shedding the burden of our past, except by repen- tance, for we are all guilty, all besmirched?"
"We cannot convert the kingdom of universal falsehood into a kingdom of universal truth by even
the cleverest and most skillfully contrived economic and social reforms: these are the wrong building bricks."