Lauri Myllyvirta Profile picture
Sep 22 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
A key point I always try to convey to policymakers and business folks in the west is that China's competitiveness in manufacturing is underpinned by unrivaled scale and ecosystem. The stereotype far too often is that it's all about subsidies and cheap labor, which...
...causes people to drastically underestimate the challenge of building alternative supply chains and the scale of the resources required to do it.
Or well, a lot of powerful people seem to be so out of touch with the physical production of things that they vastly *overestimate* the challenge in some areas (rare earths) and vastly underestimate it in others (solar and batteries).
The rhetoric about China's dominance of a few strategic industries also overlooks that for many essential clean technologies - wind turbines, electrolyzers, heat pumps, even EVs, there are manufacturers that are at par with or ahead of Chinese suppliers (for now).
Does China use subsidies and trade barriers? Yes. But they've used them strategically over decades to build an awe-inspiring industrial juggernaut that would currently be extremely hard to compete with on a fully leveled playing field.
I think that 1) China's drive to vastly increase the supply and drive down the price of clean energy technology is making a huge positive contribution and 2) maintaining and, when needed, building diversified supply of key strategic clean energy technologies is important.
China itself has insisted on almost fully self-controlled supply chains and therefore has no grounds to object if others want at least to diversify.
It's just important to be clear-eyed about the challenge, and also not to pretend you can skirt it by sticking to 20th century technology forever.

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More from @laurimyllyvirta

Aug 13
NEW from us: Last year, China started construction on an estimated 95 gigawatts (GW) of new coal power capacity, enough to power the entire UK twice over.

We explain why China's still building new coal power plants, and when and how it might stop and begin phasing out. Image
We address several persistent myths and misconceptions about coal power in China. These are the key points we make: Image
POINT 1: New coal is not needed for energy security
Making sure there is enough capacity to cover peak demand is what the government (mainly) means when they talk about “energy security” as the justification for new coal power.
Read 34 tweets
Jul 31
Important data drop that I've been waiting for on China's massive solar installations in H1:
🌞 solar power capacity additions doubled year-on-year to 212 gigawatts, with total capacity at the end of H1 increasing a whopping 54% year on year
Distributed solar accounted for 53% of new additions.
👉 This implies plenty of centralized solar projects are still on the way, many aiming to finish before the end of China's current 5-year plan in December.
Solar generation grew 43% while capacity grew 54%.
🔎 This suggests capacity utilization is slipping—likely due to higher curtailment—but the impact is still much smaller than the surge in capacity.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 4
Jaw-dropping: while most everyone has been projecting a slowdown in China's wind&solar deployment, the State Grid Energy Research Institute expects 380 GW solar and 140 GW wind added to the grid this year. Image
It's been clear that clean (and dirty) power capacity additions numbers would be buoyed by the end of the five-year plan period, when a lot of projects race to complete. But I have not seen anyone predict anything this big.
These clean capacity additions mean around 850 TWh/year of clean power generation added to the grid while the State Grid also projects demand to grow 400-640 TWh (4.0-6.5%).

So this clean energy growth should push power sector emissions down this year and well into next year. Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 24
We knew China's rush to install solar and wind was going to be wild but WOW😮. The solar panels & wind turbines installed in May alone, in a single month, will generarate as much electricity as:
-Poland
-Sweden
-Norway
-the UAE
-North Carolina&Maryland or
-Washington&Wyoming Image
Image
In the first five months of the year, China added 198 GW of solar and 46 GW of wind. Those turbines and panels will generate as much electricity as:
-Indonesia
-Turkey
-Any U.S. state except for Texas or
-California, Arizona and New Mexico put together
-and much more than the UK
Chinese companies installed 93 GW of solar and 27 GW of wind in a single month in May. That's about 230 million solar panels and 5300 wind turbines. That's almost 100 solar panels every second, and a wind turbine every 10 minutes.
Read 12 tweets
May 1
I didn't have time for a hot take on the Spanish power outage a few days ago so here's a bit more of a measured take, and a hot take on the hot takes making the rounds. Image
First of all, the outage wasn't "caused by solar" or any other power plant or technology anymore than the rupture of this pipe was "caused by" water inside the pipe.
The job of the pipe is to keep water inside and the job of the power grid is to manage variations in supply and demand. So IF the outage was related to such variations, the cause isn't those variations but the failure to prepare or the failure of the system to respond as planned.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 24
Xi Jinping just made his first climate-focused, internation speech in several years. While he said little that is new in substance, Xi's speeches are always important signals of the leadership's priorities. 🧵 Image
Significantly, Xi is taking credit for the growth of China's clean energy industry: "Since I announced China's carbon neutrality goal five years ago, we have built the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system as well as the largest and most complete new energy industrial chain."
This year, China's government is formulating new energy targets for the next five-year period, strongly affecting the pace of clean energy development. Significantly upgraded targets are needed to maintain current growth rates, so it's important that the boom has Xi's backing.
Read 10 tweets

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