🚨🇷🇺🇺🇸🇪🇺 ENERGY WARS IGNITE: A New World Order is Rewriting Global Oil & Gas Rules
This isn't just markets—it's a US-led power grab to rewire the world's energy grid. The stakes? Global dominance.
Buckle up for the truth🧵👇
This isn't just markets—it's a US-led power grab to rewire the world's energy grid. The stakes? Global dominance.
Buckle up for the truth🧵👇
The American Agenda: Pressure & Profit
Washington’s goal is clear: rebalance global energy demand in favor of US producers. The strategy is two-pronged:
🔸Pressure on Europe: Force an accelerated transition away from Russian energy.
🔸Tariffs on China/India: Punish those still buying Russian oil.
Washington’s goal is clear: rebalance global energy demand in favor of US producers. The strategy is two-pronged:
🔸Pressure on Europe: Force an accelerated transition away from Russian energy.
🔸Tariffs on China/India: Punish those still buying Russian oil.
Brussels is caught in an impossible position.
🔸It has acquiesced to the first demand, signing off on $250B in US oil & LNG purchases.
🔸But imposing tariffs on China/India is suicidal. The EU economy couldn't withstand rising energy costs AND retaliatory measures on its industrial chains.
🔸It has acquiesced to the first demand, signing off on $250B in US oil & LNG purchases.
🔸But imposing tariffs on China/India is suicidal. The EU economy couldn't withstand rising energy costs AND retaliatory measures on its industrial chains.
Trump's pressure on Europe serves a concrete purpose:
🔸Minimum Goal: Monopoly power for US companies in the EU market + leverage to gain a share of the Russian fuel supply chain to Europe (control over routes like Nord Stream).
🔸Maximum Goal: Drag Europe into a full economic standoff with China.
🔸Minimum Goal: Monopoly power for US companies in the EU market + leverage to gain a share of the Russian fuel supply chain to Europe (control over routes like Nord Stream).
🔸Maximum Goal: Drag Europe into a full economic standoff with China.
Russia is a target, but also an inescapable part of the puzzle.
🔸Decades-old infrastructure doesn’t vanish overnight.
🔸US LNG can't eliminate geography, seasonality, or the "last-mile" problem.
🔸This reality fuels secret negotiations, moving from ideology to potential deals.
🔸Decades-old infrastructure doesn’t vanish overnight.
🔸US LNG can't eliminate geography, seasonality, or the "last-mile" problem.
🔸This reality fuels secret negotiations, moving from ideology to potential deals.
Even US energy giants are playing a double game.
🔸Publicly: ExxonMobil says it has no plans to return to Russia.
🔸Privately: Reports of secret contacts with Rosneft signal that bridges are not burned, but "dismantled section by section" for potential reassembly.
🔸Publicly: ExxonMobil says it has no plans to return to Russia.
🔸Privately: Reports of secret contacts with Rosneft signal that bridges are not burned, but "dismantled section by section" for potential reassembly.
China and India are facing the challenges:
🔸They are vying for new discounts on Russian energy.
🔸They benefit from price arbitrage, turning Western pressure on Russia into their own economic advantage.
🔸They are vying for new discounts on Russian energy.
🔸They benefit from price arbitrage, turning Western pressure on Russia into their own economic advantage.
Japan's Strategic Maneuvering Efforts:
🔸It rejected raising duties on Russian molecules, hiding behind WTO rules.
🔸The real goal: protecting its strategic position in LNG, specifically the critical Sakhalin-2 project.
🔸It rejected raising duties on Russian molecules, hiding behind WTO rules.
🔸The real goal: protecting its strategic position in LNG, specifically the critical Sakhalin-2 project.
EU Fractures: Centers vs. Peripheries
🔸Core (von der Leyen): Announces accelerated phaseouts and new sanctions.
🔸Periphery (Hungary, Slovakia): Seek exceptions, fearing industrial collapse without Russian crude. They hope Trump's threats are just a negotiating tactic.
🔸Core (von der Leyen): Announces accelerated phaseouts and new sanctions.
🔸Periphery (Hungary, Slovakia): Seek exceptions, fearing industrial collapse without Russian crude. They hope Trump's threats are just a negotiating tactic.
The Battle of Schedules: Regulation vs. Reality
🔸Regulators write 200 pages of complex "exceptions."
🔸The Market adapts overnight, finding new routes and payment methods. Industry clings to "today's gas" over "tomorrow's promises."
🔸Regulators write 200 pages of complex "exceptions."
🔸The Market adapts overnight, finding new routes and payment methods. Industry clings to "today's gas" over "tomorrow's promises."
Europe faces a choice with no good outcome:
🔸Rapid Rupture: A blow to industry from high energy costs and a tariff war with Asia.
🔸Slow Rupture: Living in a world of "exceptions," losing agency to Washington, and enduring constant uncertainty.
🔸Rapid Rupture: A blow to industry from high energy costs and a tariff war with Asia.
🔸Slow Rupture: Living in a world of "exceptions," losing agency to Washington, and enduring constant uncertainty.
Conclusion: Energy is the Foundation, Not a Tool
Oil and gas are again the primary factor in strategic choice. The reshuffling of routes is a direct reflection of a new world order where energy is the foundation of geopolitics.
This realignment is not a temporary shift—it will define the landscape for a long time.
Oil and gas are again the primary factor in strategic choice. The reshuffling of routes is a direct reflection of a new world order where energy is the foundation of geopolitics.
This realignment is not a temporary shift—it will define the landscape for a long time.
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