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More from @JasonYanowitz

Yano 🟪

@JasonYanowitz

Dec 26

1/ 2026 predictions.

Full predictions written out below 🧵

2/ People start talking about onchain businesses as more efficient.

“Onchain businesses” become a mainstream efficiency framing.

You’ll see earnings calls or investor letters mention stablecoins/onchain rails as a cost or margin lever.

3/ Stablecoin-backed USD “bank accounts” become a mainstream product in emerging markets.

USD bank account in front, stables in back.

This has interesting geopolitical and FX impacts. Central Banks talk about the impact of these accounts, governments try to ban them.

Read 15 tweets

Yano 🟪

@JasonYanowitz

Mar 21

1/ Putting together a thread of DAS takeaways.

If you see anything else drop it below.

https://twitter.com/dgt10011/status/1902817769432715519

2/ From @dgt10011

https://twitter.com/dgt10011/status/1902817769432715519

https://twitter.com/cindyleowtt/status/1902819189888520334

@dgt10011 3/ from @cindyleowtt

https://twitter.com/cindyleowtt/status/1902819189888520334

Read 24 tweets

Yano 🟪

@JasonYanowitz

Feb 20

1/ Kaito opening at $1B+ is very interesting.

It's not about InfoFi or airdrops or yap farmers.

It's about centralized companies launching tokens 🧵

2/ Historically there were 2 types of companies.

Offchain entities: centralized exchanges, custodians, data providers, RPC providers, research platforms, SaaS companies, etc

And onchain entities: L1s, L2s, staking providers, DEXs, lend/borrow platforms, etc

3/ These entities raise money in two very different ways.

Offchain: set up in Delaware and then raise money via the traditional Seed, Series A, Series B, Series C, Series D, etc... until an IPO

Onchain set up as DAOs and then raise money via Seed, Series A... then token!

Read 12 tweets

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@JasonYanowitz

Nov 10, 2024

1/ There are 4 phases of a bull market.

Buckle up, we just entered the most fun phase.

Welcome to Stage 3 🧵

2/ As a reminder, Stage 1 was Rebirth

This occurred Jan 2023 – Jan 2024

In the Rebirth, bear market exhaustion is the prevailing feeling.

Apathy kills all narratives.

Your friends and the media still focus on the bear market blowups.

Layoffs keep happening.

3/ However, prices quietly recover.

BTC rallies 3x.

But you barely notice, you’re still underwater on everything.

Only the deepest crypto natives who have seen 2+ cycles realize that the bull market has begun.

Most people are still in disbelief that this is the bull market.

Read 18 tweets

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@JasonYanowitz

Oct 8, 2024

1/ Been thinking about prediction markets a lot.

There's a huge crossover between media and prediction markets, which make them very relevant to Blockworks.

If I were competing against Polymarket, here's what I'd do 🧵

2/ First there are some financial / structural things to put in place.

I have no idea how hard these are. Probably hard.

I'm sure Polymarket has thought of all these and there's a reason they aren't doing them.

3/ Financial things:

a) Fix the capped upside – figure out how to create non-binary outcomes

b) Give anyone (permissionless) or an approved list (semi-permissionless) the ability to create markets

c) Add leverage

d) Add more leverage

e) Add perps to help hedge

Read 9 tweets

Yano 🟪

@JasonYanowitz

Jun 29, 2024

1/ I finally read Leopold Aschenbrenner's essay series on AI: Situational Awareness

Everyone, regardless of your interest in AI, should read this.

I took notes, they're sloppy but figured I'd share.

Welcome to the future:

2/ from gpt4 to AGI: counting the OOMs

- ai progress is rapid. gpt-2 to gpt-4 went from preschooler to smart high schooler in 4 years
- we can expect another jump like that by 2027. this could take us to agi
- progress comes from 3 things: more compute, better algorithms, and "unhobbling" (making models less constrained)
- compute is growing ~0.5 orders of magnitude (OOMs) per year. that's about 3x faster than moore's law
- algorithmic efficiency is also growing ~0.5 OOMs/year. this is often overlooked but just as important as compute
- "unhobbling" gains are harder to quantify but also huge. things like RLHF and chain-of-thought reasoning
- we're looking at 5+ OOMs of effective compute gains in 4 years. that's another gpt-2 to gpt-4 sized jump
- by 2027, we might have models that can do the work of ai researchers and engineers. that's agi (!!)
- we're running out of training data though. this could slow things down unless we find new ways to be more sample efficient
- even if progress slows, it's likely we'll see agi this decade. the question is more "2027 or 2029?" not "2027 or 2050?"

3/ from AGI to superintelligence: the intelligence explosion

- once we have agi, progress won't stop there. we'll quickly get superintelligence
- we'll be able to run millions of copies of agi systems. they'll automate ai research
- instead of a few hundred researchers at a lab, we'll have 100 million+ working 24/7. this could compress a decade of progress into less than a year
- we might see 5+ OOMs of algorithmic gains in a year. that's another gpt-2 to gpt-4 jump on top of agi
- there are some potential bottlenecks, like limited compute for experiments. but none seem enough to definitively slow things
- superintelligent ai will be unimaginably powerful. it'll be qualitatively smarter than humans, not just faster
- it could solve long-standing scientific problems, invent new technologies, and provide massive economic and military advantages
- we could see economic growth rates of 30%+ per year. multiple economic doublings in a year is possible
- the intelligence explosion and immediate aftermath will likely be one of the most volatile periods in human history

Read 12 tweets

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