1/ Nearly 40% of Russia’s oil refinery capacity is offline after a wave of Ukrainian drone strikes.
It’s the most severe fuel crisis Moscow has faced in decades.
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It’s the most severe fuel crisis Moscow has faced in decades.
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2/ Since early August, Ukrainian drones have struck 20+ major refineries across Russia.
By Sept 28, 338,000 tons/day of oil refining was idle—38% of national capacity.
By Sept 28, 338,000 tons/day of oil refining was idle—38% of national capacity.
3/ Output of gasoline & diesel fell 6% in August and another 18% in September.
This is historically unprecedented—exceeding records from May 2022 and May 2020.
This is historically unprecedented—exceeding records from May 2022 and May 2020.
4/ Drone strikes caused ~70% of the downtime, knocking out about 236,000 tons/day of refining.
Russia is losing nearly a quarter of its processing power directly due to Ukrainian drones.
Russia is losing nearly a quarter of its processing power directly due to Ukrainian drones.
5/ As a result, gasoline production fell 1M tons in September.
Domestic shortages reached 20% of consumption.
Regions hardest hit: Far East & occupied-Crimea, where sales were capped at 30 liters per person.
Domestic shortages reached 20% of consumption.
Regions hardest hit: Far East & occupied-Crimea, where sales were capped at 30 liters per person.
6/ More than 20 regions—from Sakhalin to Nizhny Novgorod—are reporting shortages.
Queues, rationing, and local bans are spreading across Russia.
Queues, rationing, and local bans are spreading across Russia.
7/ Repairs may take months.
Western sanctions block critical equipment, and Chinese replacements aren’t easily compatible.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev: “There’s little Russian firms can do to smooth the crisis.”
Western sanctions block critical equipment, and Chinese replacements aren’t easily compatible.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev: “There’s little Russian firms can do to smooth the crisis.”
8/ Moscow is trying to contain the crisis:
- Banned gasoline exports
- Scrapped import duties on fuel in the Eurasian Economic Union
- May lower environmental standards to squeeze out more production
- Banned gasoline exports
- Scrapped import duties on fuel in the Eurasian Economic Union
- May lower environmental standards to squeeze out more production
9/ The crisis is already pushing up inflation.
Wholesale fuel prices: +40% in 2025
Retail prices: +11–12% YoY, highest in 7 years
Wholesale fuel prices: +40% in 2025
Retail prices: +11–12% YoY, highest in 7 years
10/ Rising fuel costs ripple into: Agriculture, transport, logistics.
All feeding into higher food & essential goods prices.
All feeding into higher food & essential goods prices.
The fuel crisis will get worst for Russia.
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1973269889008943163
Russians: Do you pay for gas or for your mortgage?
https://twitter.com/evgen1232007/status/1973299188474802345
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