🧵 My take on the #Aras2025 Presidential race after week one:
1/ There is an anger out there. But it’s not the anger of the extremes. It’s a centrist anger. The frustration of voters who’d usually back FF, FG, Lab… but now see these parties as rudderless and shallow.
1/ There is an anger out there. But it’s not the anger of the extremes. It’s a centrist anger. The frustration of voters who’d usually back FF, FG, Lab… but now see these parties as rudderless and shallow.
2/ That anger could fuel Connolly’s election. It didn’t erupt in #GE2024, where voters judged the alternative Govt to be worse. But this time the presidency offers a way to kick over the table, without the govt falling.
3/ Centrist voters see the limits of the office of @PresidentIRL. They believe institutions will constrain Connolly, making her more of an irritant to Taoiseach & Tánaiste than a threat to stability.
4/ Electing Connolly, for them, is a way to send a hard message to the complacent centre, esp govts parties… but not only them, without damaging their own long-term interests.
5/ Meanwhile, @fiannafailparty & @FineGael are offering voters decent and honourable people as presidential candidates: but they are largely unknown, unconvincing, and uncharismatic on the campaign trail.
6/ The field feels uninspiring all round. In that context, Connolly appears the least inarticulate, the most authentic, and the most comfortable in her own skin… this is based on the recent debate chaired by @kierancuddihy
7/ I am struck by how many people I know (political and non political) who are voting @catherinegalway #1. These are not radicals. They know her flaws. They think:
(a) The system will limit her power
(b) Their ballot tells party leaders “Enough is enough.”
(a) The system will limit her power
(b) Their ballot tells party leaders “Enough is enough.”
8/ Here’s the dilemma: a Connolly presidency will probably be disastrous. But a Humphreys win, and the FG / @SimonHarrisTD victory lap to follow, may only deepen this centrist anger.
9/ Which is worse? Connolly winning outright, or her coming 2nd and invigorating the opposition and emboldening FG?
Neither option looks good.
I won’t spoil my ballot.
I will vote FOR someone… but is this the best we can do after 7 years knowing there would be an election?
Neither option looks good.
I won’t spoil my ballot.
I will vote FOR someone… but is this the best we can do after 7 years knowing there would be an election?
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