1/6 🧵
While the world’s attention remains fixed on Ukraine, Russia is quietly securing its next strategic victory in Georgia — and the West is watching it happen in silence.
My latest article explains how Georgia has quietly become a second flank for Russia and why Western hesitation is dangerous for Europe’s security.
Full article in the thread below…
While the world’s attention remains fixed on Ukraine, Russia is quietly securing its next strategic victory in Georgia — and the West is watching it happen in silence.
My latest article explains how Georgia has quietly become a second flank for Russia and why Western hesitation is dangerous for Europe’s security.
Full article in the thread below…
2/6🧵
Just days ago, the U.S.-sanctioned tanker Olga docked at Poti port. Its operator was sanctioned in 2022 for transporting Russian weapons — yet it sailed freely into Georgia.
Full article:
Or continue reading the thread…open.substack.com/pub/gochagogsa…
Just days ago, the U.S.-sanctioned tanker Olga docked at Poti port. Its operator was sanctioned in 2022 for transporting Russian weapons — yet it sailed freely into Georgia.
Full article:
Or continue reading the thread…open.substack.com/pub/gochagogsa…
3/6🧵
Under the Georgian Dream regime, the country that once symbolized democratic aspiration in the post-Soviet space has become a gateway for Russia’s sanctioned economy and military logistics. The Black Sea, vital to Europe’s energy and defense architecture, is being reshaped by Moscow’s proxies — and Tbilisi is playing its part.
Georgia’s de facto ruler, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, built his fortune in Russia and now acts as the Kremlin’s most valuable political asset in the Caucasus. He dismantled or captured every pro-Western institution, sabotaged the Anaklia deep-sea port — a project that could have anchored Georgia to NATO’s maritime infrastructure — and allowed Russia to develop a naval base in occupied Abkhazia’s Ochamchire, giving Moscow a new launchpad into the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
This is not the behavior of a government sitting on the fence. It is the behavior of a regime actively enabling Russia’s war machine.
Under the Georgian Dream regime, the country that once symbolized democratic aspiration in the post-Soviet space has become a gateway for Russia’s sanctioned economy and military logistics. The Black Sea, vital to Europe’s energy and defense architecture, is being reshaped by Moscow’s proxies — and Tbilisi is playing its part.
Georgia’s de facto ruler, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, built his fortune in Russia and now acts as the Kremlin’s most valuable political asset in the Caucasus. He dismantled or captured every pro-Western institution, sabotaged the Anaklia deep-sea port — a project that could have anchored Georgia to NATO’s maritime infrastructure — and allowed Russia to develop a naval base in occupied Abkhazia’s Ochamchire, giving Moscow a new launchpad into the Black Sea and Mediterranean.
This is not the behavior of a government sitting on the fence. It is the behavior of a regime actively enabling Russia’s war machine.
4/6🧵
This year, the United Kingdom sanctioned several Georgian Dream–linked individuals, companies, and ships for assisting Russia’s war effort. Yet Western engagement with Georgia remains timid and confused. Statements of concern replace strategy, and diplomatic caution replaces moral clarity, while the true pro-European opposition sits in prison — over 114 activists, journalists, and human rights defenders silenced by a Kremlin-style system of repression.
Let’s be clear: ignoring Georgia’s democratic forces is not neutrality — it is complicity. Every time the West turns away, it signals to Moscow that corruption and coercion can replace democracy along NATO’s frontier.
This year, the United Kingdom sanctioned several Georgian Dream–linked individuals, companies, and ships for assisting Russia’s war effort. Yet Western engagement with Georgia remains timid and confused. Statements of concern replace strategy, and diplomatic caution replaces moral clarity, while the true pro-European opposition sits in prison — over 114 activists, journalists, and human rights defenders silenced by a Kremlin-style system of repression.
Let’s be clear: ignoring Georgia’s democratic forces is not neutrality — it is complicity. Every time the West turns away, it signals to Moscow that corruption and coercion can replace democracy along NATO’s frontier.
5/6🧵
If Georgia falls fully into Russia’s sphere, the Black Sea becomes a Russian lake, Ukraine’s southern flank is further exposed, and NATO’s southeastern corridor — stretching from the Baltics to the Mediterranean — is compromised. Georgia’s geography is not a detail; it is a strategic hinge between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Whoever controls Georgia controls the energy and transport arteries that connect the continents.
Supporting Georgia’s civil society and real opposition is therefore not a gesture of solidarity — it is an act of self-defense. It costs little but prevents much: another Russian military foothold, another Belarus, another war.
If Georgia falls fully into Russia’s sphere, the Black Sea becomes a Russian lake, Ukraine’s southern flank is further exposed, and NATO’s southeastern corridor — stretching from the Baltics to the Mediterranean — is compromised. Georgia’s geography is not a detail; it is a strategic hinge between Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Whoever controls Georgia controls the energy and transport arteries that connect the continents.
Supporting Georgia’s civil society and real opposition is therefore not a gesture of solidarity — it is an act of self-defense. It costs little but prevents much: another Russian military foothold, another Belarus, another war.
6/6🧵
And yet, Georgia still resists.
Despite intimidation, imprisonment, and disinformation, the Georgian people continue to protest. Every week, thousands gather in Tbilisi and across the regions — waving European flags, demanding freedom, and refusing to surrender their future to a Russian oligarch’s shadow rule. Students, journalists, veterans, and clergy stand side by side, proving that the democratic spirit has not been extinguished.
The streets of Tbilisi remind us that the fight for Europe’s values is not taking place only in Tallinn or Warsaw — it is also taking place in Georgia, right now.
History rarely gives clear warnings. Georgia is one.
The question is whether the West listens before it’s too late.
And yet, Georgia still resists.
Despite intimidation, imprisonment, and disinformation, the Georgian people continue to protest. Every week, thousands gather in Tbilisi and across the regions — waving European flags, demanding freedom, and refusing to surrender their future to a Russian oligarch’s shadow rule. Students, journalists, veterans, and clergy stand side by side, proving that the democratic spirit has not been extinguished.
The streets of Tbilisi remind us that the fight for Europe’s values is not taking place only in Tallinn or Warsaw — it is also taking place in Georgia, right now.
History rarely gives clear warnings. Georgia is one.
The question is whether the West listens before it’s too late.
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