Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy Profile picture
Oct 11 10 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🧵(a thread) FRACTIONAL GOLD SYSTEM — IS YOUR ETF SAFE? (Part 1)
1️⃣/10
Most people think when they buy gold through an ETF or a bullion account, there’s a bar with their name on it.
But in reality, your gold likely exists only as an IOU — not a bar.
Let’s decode how this fractional gold system really works 👇
#gold #Silver #silversqueeze
2️⃣
Start with 1 real bar (400 oz) sitting in a bullion bank’s vault.
Now watch how this same bar is turned into many paper claims across multiple markets.
3️⃣ Step 1 – Unallocated Accounts
When you “buy gold” through a bank, you get an unallocated account — meaning you don’t own any specific bar.
➡️ The bank keeps the gold as its own asset,
➡️ and shows your gold balance as a liability — “gold owed to client.”

So the same bar stays on the bank’s books, even though you think it’s yours.
4️⃣ Step 2 – Reuse as Collateral
Since the bank still owns that gold on paper, it can now pledge the same metal as margin for futures trades on COMEX.
Each COMEX contract = 100 oz.
Your 400 oz bar can support 4 futures contracts.

➡️ One bar, multiple paper claims.
5️⃣ Step 3 – ETFs (like GLD)
Authorized Participants (APs) — often the same bullion banks — use these unallocated accounts as “backing” to create ETF shares.
The ETF reports “gold held,” but that gold is often unallocated — just another claim on the same underlying pool.
6️⃣
At this point, that single 400 oz bar has been:
1) booked as the bank’s asset,

2) owed to clients as a liability,

3) pledged as margin on futures,

4) and used to back ETF units.

All from the same metal.
7️⃣
The system works fine as long as no one asks for delivery.
Like banks lending deposits — it runs on confidence and low redemption.
But if too many investors demand real gold, the illusion breaks.
8️⃣
That’s when you see:
⚠️ Spiking lease rates
⚠️ Backwardation in futures
⚠️ ETF redemptions freezing
⚠️ Cash settlement instead of delivery
Because the “gold” was mostly paper leverage
9️⃣
So when your ETF says “backed by physical gold,”
what it really means is — backed by claims on bullion banks who still treat that gold as their asset.
Fractional, not full reserve
🔟
This is how the fractional gold system works —
a web of promises layered over a limited pile of bars.

• • •

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More from @SunilRe89392848

Oct 4
Thread 🧵: Under gold, money was hard and housing was affordable.
Under fiat, money is debt and housing became a lifetime trap.
Here’s how the mortgage system cheats the average person
1/10
Housing was supposed to be shelter.
But after gold was abandoned and money became paper backed by credit, homes turned into the world’s biggest debt machine
#HardMoney #MortgageSlavery #MiddleClassSqueezeImage
2/
When you take a mortgage, you think the bank is lending you savings.
They’re not.
They create new money with a keystroke — and you spend 20–30 years paying it back with your real labor
3/
For decades, the bank owns more of your home than you do.
Miss a few payments? They take it.
Keep paying? You’ll give them 2–3x the original price in interest
Read 11 tweets
Sep 22
🧵 Why the Rally in Gold Miners Is Not Over Yet

1/ Many are calling miners “overbought.”
But this rally is not just speculation — it’s rooted in macro fundamentals.
Let’s break it down 👇(a thread)
#Gold #Silver #GoldMiners #SPX #Macro
2/ Gold miners = leveraged gold, yes.
But their real drivers are two ratios:
1) Gold/Oil → margins.

2) Gold/SPX → capital flows.

When both rise, miners can run far longer than most expect. Image
3/ Gold vs Oil (G/O ratio):

1) Gold = revenue.

2) Oil = cost.
With oil capped on recession fears and gold rising as a safe haven, margins are expanding sharply.
This is not speculation — it’s profitability. Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 19
China is quietly building a digital gold system that could replace the dollar in trade. Here’s how…
1/
💡 Did you know China runs two gold systems?
1) SHFE → futures, speculation, collateral.

2) SGE → spot, physical settlement, international vaults.
Banks constantly shuffle gold between them.

But a new shift could make both redundant 👇
#Gold #DeDollarization #China #BRICS #DigitalAssets #SoundMoneyImage
2/
Today it’s clunky:
1) Want leverage? Park gold in SHFE warrants.

2) Want to settle trade? Convert into SGE warrants.
Slow. Costly. Limited.
3/
Now imagine: instead of shuffling bars & paper warrants, banks issue gold tokens backed 1:1 by vault reserves.
⚡ Move instantly.
⚡ 24/7.
⚡ Across borders.
⚡ Fractional (down to grams).
Read 10 tweets
Aug 25
1/16
The Chart of the Century: Gold vs Dow
For 100 years, the Gold/Dow ratio has traced an expanding triangle (ABCDE).
We are now in Wave E — the terminal phase.

➡️ Elliott Wave target:
• Gold $20,000–$25,000 base case
• Silver $300–$500 (potentially >$1000 in mania)
• Gold/Dow ratio aiming for 20x from here, possibly retesting Upper trendline or a bit throwover
It seems unbelievable today. Bookmark this , in 10 years you’ll see how obvious it was.

The reset decade has begun. #Gold #Dow #ElliottWave #Reset #Markets #Macro #ChartOfThecenturyImage
What is GOLD/DJI?
It measures gold’s purchasing power vs equities. When it rises, gold outperforms stocks; when it falls, equities dominate. It’s the cleanest lens on money vs risk.
3/16
The structure (Grand Supercycle):
A (~1930s)
B (~1968 low)
C (1980 blowoff)
D (~2000 low)
E (now)
Boundary lines diverge → it’s an expanding triangle (rare, powerful).
Read 17 tweets

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