Thread by @JPLindsley

1/ "In Donbas, Ukrainians are killing waves of Russians on motorbikes—

—but when the Russians stall at the front, they bomb Ukrainian cities.”

A trusted frontline Ukrainian officer told me how Ukraine is holding the line—and the ONE plot-changing thing Trump can do 🧵⤵️

2/ The hinge is Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian town meaning "protection of the Virgin Mary."

For 13 months, self-serving, lazy Western media & think-tank “experts” predicted it would fall to Russia:

Sept ’24, Dec ’24, June ’25, July, last week…

It hasn’t. Ukraine keeps holding.⤵️

3/ Why it matters: If Pokrovsk falls, the “dam” protecting left-bank Ukraine cracks, potentially giving Russia a wide run over half of the vast country.

What the media won't tell you: “Our superpower is the motivation not to lose," the frontline officer tells me. ⤵️

4/ Yet Russia has thrown everything—elite naval infantry, waves of shitty motorbikes & light trucks, fiber-optic-guided drones, foreign idiots, electronic warfare.

When that fails, they try a psy-op: small teams slipping behind lines to spark “Pokrovsk is falling” headlines.⤵️

5/ But Ukrainian defenders dug in: tank ditches, wide trenches to obstruct mobility corridors, mines, artillery, and brilliantly innovative drones ...

Result: frontal assaults fail in the wide kill-zones. Russians cannot get through. ⤵️

6/ In the last four days alone—almost every vehicle Russia sent was destroyed.

400+ KIA
270+ wounded

Destroyed:
8 tanks
25 IFVs
80+ light vehicles ⤵️

7/ The pattern is clear:

“When Russia has momentum, they don’t hit cities. When they’re getting destroyed at the front, they slam civilians.”

So when you hear headlines of major attacks on Kyiv and Lviv, KNOW THAT THIS MEANS RUSSIA IS SLIPPING AT THE FRONT and buying time. ⤵️

8/ Trump’s recent line—“Ukraine can win”—was a HUGE psychological jolt here. Ukrainian defenders keep emphasizing this point.

Morale matters: Defenders around Pokrovsk have been removing 100+ Russian soldiers a day since then, my source says. The vector is improving.

But... ⤵️

9/ "Ukraine's western-made long-range, precision weapons are potent, but existing in homeopathic amounts—

—Only enough to hold back the Russians," the officer tells me.

The surprising thing: What's need is precision, more than long-range ⤵️

10/ Ukraine is well capable of hitting oil refineries in Russia with Ukrainian-produced drones.

But only proper American rockets with precise penetrating capabilities are the exact weapon to stop the “nerve centres” and well-protected launch spots of Russian war machine. ⤵️

11/ "If we could effectively remove command points of the Russian army—the brains that are planning and sending those waves, as well as the storage facilities of their weapons—we’d stop this," the well-experienced and well-respected frontline officer says.

Your thoughts? 🧵🎬