If you’re a student of US FP via-a-vis Israel you know that there was always a debate between those that argued that if the US wants to make Israel do something it needs to show it has its back, and those that said that the U.S. needs to threaten with cutting military aid (1)
In this time around Trump showed that the former probably works much better than the latter.
It’s true we still don’t know all the details, but it’s very clear that Trump didn’t threaten Bibi even once with cutting military aid. In fact, he only strengthen U.S. military aid (2)
It’s true that Biden also chose the former at first, and I would argue that through that he was able to convince Bibi not to do certain things (not opening a second front, giving more aid etc.), but when he threatened to cut some military aid he didn’t achieve much (3)
At the same time Bibi did many things that made Biden and his advisers think that he is not being cooperative (he wasn’t completely), so I can’t fault them of thinking they should use other tools.
In any case, the decision to cut some military aid was a mistake (4)
This is what I wrote back then when the Biden administration threatened to cut military aid
There is a sense in Israel that a hostage deal may be very close. That will make me and many Israelis very happy as we want our hostages home.
Besides the hostages it will also be the right strategic move by the Israeli government in such a crucial timing
Let me explain 🧵
Yes, Israel needs to eliminate Hamas, and some will argue that we’re still not there. However, even if Hamas is not eliminated, Israel now has bigger fish to fry - Iran, namely making sure that we don’t miss this historical opportunity re its nuclear program
Israel needs to focus and maintain its resources (military and others) to make sure we’re ready to take on Iran’s nuclear program. Yes ,an agreement between the US and Iran is still the more probable scenario (and Israel needs to focus on how to shape it as well), BUT…
Every time after a significant Israeli strike in Syria I can't help but think how a decade ago, when many of us were calling for the international community, specifically the US and Europe, to do more about Assad's crimes against the Syrian people, many said it's impossible (1)
Specifically I remember that many were calling for the US and Europe to take out Assad's air force, or at least his helicopters that were used to barrel bomb thousands of Syrians.
The pushback was that it was too risky, and that it was impossible to execute successfully (2)
We all knew that they were poor excuses for not wanting to act. This was all before Russia became heavily involved in Syria and the risk of escalation was more significant.
Still, time and time again, people argued Assad's air defense systems were too advanced (3)
A shocking interview on Channel 12 with Doron Katz Asher, who was kidnapped to Gaza with two of her young daughters by #Hamas and was released.
A few important points from her interview that will give you a real glimpse of what happened in Gaza (1)
1. They were held for the first 16 days at a family in Gaza. The father of the family spoke Hebrew as he used to work in Israel. The mom of the family and her daughters were in charge of guarding them. 2. After the 16 days they were dressed as Muslim women and were moved (2)
They were moved to a hospital (!!!). They met there other Israeli hostages. There were 10 Israelis in a small hospital room with no bathroom and no mattresses/beds.
One of Doron’s daughters had a fever for three days and she couldn’t do anything to help her (3)
Many people urge #Israel to think about the “day after”, and I couldn’t agree more. Israel should think about the day after it defeats #Hamas in #Gaza. But let me flip this for a second. Assume Israel answers the call for a ceasefire - what’s your plan for the “day after”? (1)
How does #Israel make sure #Hamas doesn’t attack again? How Israelis are supposed to feel safe in their own home if Hamas still rules Gaza and keep arming itself and plan terrorists attacks? Please, give Israel a solution, but let me review what we tried already (2)
Israel left #Gaza in 2005 thinking that the PA will be able to fight their own terrorists - didn’t work.
Israel stopped attacking Gaza and maintained a ceasefire that lasted for some periods - didn’t work (see the recent attack).
Israel moved money to Hamas - didn’t work(3)
What is currently happening in the region is a clear example of the mistake many countries made in putting the threat of #Iran's regional network on the back burner.
We are close to a regional conflict, in big part, because Iran's proxies & Iran itself feel embolden to act(1)
For years #Iran has build up terrorist organization and militias across the region with funds & advanced weapons. They started in #Lebanon with #Hezbollah and copied that successful project to other countries, specifically #Syria, #Yemen, #Iraq and the Palestinian territories (2)
They exploited regional dynamics to build support & cultivated ideology that will be in line with Iranian objectives.Take #Yemen for example - the Houthis were never a regional threat and they never threatened #Israel or the US in any way, and now they are a significant threat(3)