Thread by @epkaufm

1/ NEW: trans identification is in free fall among the young
 
(h/t @FIRE data in particular)

2/ Non-conforming sexual identity (queer, questioning, etc) is also in sharp decline.

Gay and lesbian are stable while heterosexuality has rebounded by around 10 points since 2023.

3/ Not only this, but freshmen in 2024-25 were less trans and queer than seniors whereas it was the reverse when BTQ+ identity was surging in 2022-23.

This suggests that gender/sexual non-conformity will continue to fall.

4/ What explains the sudden reversal of trans and queer? It’s not because the kids became less woke, more religious or more conservative.

Those beliefs remained stable throughout the 2020s.

5/ Is it improved mental health? Yes, in part. Less anxious and, especially, depressed, students is linked with a smaller share identifying as trans, queer or bisexual.

6/ But not entirely. Mental illness fell after the pandemic but the sexuality and gender shifts happened at least a year later.

All groups, including LGBT, got less mentally ill after the pandemic.

7/ The decline in anxiety and depression occurred within trans, bisexual and queer groups as much as among others. So it wasn’t the case that most of those who solved their emotional problems became heterosexual.

8/ The fall of trans and queer seems most similar to the fading of a fashion or trend. It happened largely independently of shifts in political beliefs and social media use, though improved mental health played a role.

9/ For more, see my latest @unherd

unherd.com/newsroom/why-a…

10/ Read more from my new @heterodoxcentre @UniofBuckingham report based on @FIRE and other data



/Endheterodoxcentre.com/research/chss-…