THREAD: The Venezuela Trap. Washington's Costliest Regime Change Fantasy Yet?
The buildup of U.S. forces in the Southern Caribbean suggests a military intervention in Venezuela is imminent.
For the neocons in Washington, regime change wars are more exciting than for kids on Christmas Eve awaiting gifts from Santa.
The buildup of U.S. forces in the Southern Caribbean suggests a military intervention in Venezuela is imminent.
For the neocons in Washington, regime change wars are more exciting than for kids on Christmas Eve awaiting gifts from Santa.
President Trump’s rejection, reported in ZeroHedge, [] of Venezuela’s offer of a dominant stake in its oil, gas, and mineral wealth probably made this outcome inevitable, despite the fact that adversarial powers like Russia, China, and Iran have long maintained a strategic presence there.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/m…
Venezuela is an enormous and geographically complex prize (roughly the size of Germany and France combined, 2 times the size of Iraq), with over 1,700 miles of coastline and nearly 30 million people. Its defense apparatus is modest but hardened, resting on a core military buttressed by over 400,000 highly motivated Bolivarian Militia members whose sole mission is internal national defense.
The central question is not whether U.S. forces can defeat Venezuelan defenses and invade the country; they can. The question, echoing the fatal miscalculations of the past, is what will U.S. forces encounter once they are inside?
R-C-I Hardens Caracas
The battlefield has been pre-staged by the Russia-China-Iran (R-C-I) axis. This is not a weak state intervention. It is an operation designed to guarantee strategic failure.
• Asymmetrical Ground Defense The Militia is currently undergoing intensive training in urban centers like Petare and Coche, specializing in small-unit close combat and irregular warfare. Their explicit doctrine is attrition, using historical models from Vietnam and Afghanistan as a template to ensure an unacceptable U.S. casualty rate.
• In addition to Chinese Strategic Access Beyond the $60+ billion in loans tied to vital heavy crude oil, China also maintains access to the dual-use El Sombrero and Luepa space tracking stations. These assets offer capability for Space Situational Awareness (SSA), granting Beijing an eye on U.S. satellite constellations and communications in the hemisphere, a silent but serious strategic threat.
• Russian Kinetic Shield strategic agreements grant Venezuela access to the Glonass navigation system and advanced counter-espionage support. The active deployment of Sukhoi Su-30 MK2 fighter jets, confirmed to be armed with anti-ship missiles, provides a potential high-end, rapid response to U.S. naval operations in the Caribbean.
The battlefield has been pre-staged by the Russia-China-Iran (R-C-I) axis. This is not a weak state intervention. It is an operation designed to guarantee strategic failure.
• Asymmetrical Ground Defense The Militia is currently undergoing intensive training in urban centers like Petare and Coche, specializing in small-unit close combat and irregular warfare. Their explicit doctrine is attrition, using historical models from Vietnam and Afghanistan as a template to ensure an unacceptable U.S. casualty rate.
• In addition to Chinese Strategic Access Beyond the $60+ billion in loans tied to vital heavy crude oil, China also maintains access to the dual-use El Sombrero and Luepa space tracking stations. These assets offer capability for Space Situational Awareness (SSA), granting Beijing an eye on U.S. satellite constellations and communications in the hemisphere, a silent but serious strategic threat.
• Russian Kinetic Shield strategic agreements grant Venezuela access to the Glonass navigation system and advanced counter-espionage support. The active deployment of Sukhoi Su-30 MK2 fighter jets, confirmed to be armed with anti-ship missiles, provides a potential high-end, rapid response to U.S. naval operations in the Caribbean.
The Insurgency Calculus
Washington’s ruling class may view Venezuela as its best shot at recovering the trillions in American wealth squandered on strategic failures in the Middle East and Ukraine. Its vast resources (oil, gas. gold, and bauxite) are the prize. Yet, the American track record in Latin America is profoundly troubling. In the first half of the 20th Century, U.S. forces invaded Cuba three times, only to supervise elections and draft a constitution that ultimately guaranteed decades of anti-American resentment.
Will the Venezuelan militia members and surviving armed forces elements cooperate with Washington’s plans to loot and exploit resources, or will they coalesce into a persistent insurgency? Worse, will tens of thousands of paramilitary forces from neighboring Latin American countries (Colombia and Brazil - 2 countries with which it shares a 1370+ mile border) migrate across porous borders to support a popular insurgency against the U.S. military presence? We must also consider how millions of Latinos living inside America’s borders will react to the images of U.S. military intervention.
From the world's point of view, Venezuela looks like another disastrous regime change fantasy cooked up by the same people in Washington who brought us bankruptcy in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. General Paul Harkins, the American Commander of Military Assistance Command Vietnam and Patton’s former Operations Officer, confidently predicted victory by Christmas 1963. He was obviously wrong, but like so many others today, he understood the value of providing optimistic reports to Washington.
It will be interesting to see which retired four-stars are picked by the White House and the mainstream media to calm fears of failure in Venezuela.
At this critical juncture, Washington should pause to reflect on Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara’s question of how long it would take to get the 101st Airmobile Division into Vietnam. General Lyman Lemnitzer, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, answered with "Not long. The real question is how long it will take to get out."
Washington’s ruling class may view Venezuela as its best shot at recovering the trillions in American wealth squandered on strategic failures in the Middle East and Ukraine. Its vast resources (oil, gas. gold, and bauxite) are the prize. Yet, the American track record in Latin America is profoundly troubling. In the first half of the 20th Century, U.S. forces invaded Cuba three times, only to supervise elections and draft a constitution that ultimately guaranteed decades of anti-American resentment.
Will the Venezuelan militia members and surviving armed forces elements cooperate with Washington’s plans to loot and exploit resources, or will they coalesce into a persistent insurgency? Worse, will tens of thousands of paramilitary forces from neighboring Latin American countries (Colombia and Brazil - 2 countries with which it shares a 1370+ mile border) migrate across porous borders to support a popular insurgency against the U.S. military presence? We must also consider how millions of Latinos living inside America’s borders will react to the images of U.S. military intervention.
From the world's point of view, Venezuela looks like another disastrous regime change fantasy cooked up by the same people in Washington who brought us bankruptcy in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. General Paul Harkins, the American Commander of Military Assistance Command Vietnam and Patton’s former Operations Officer, confidently predicted victory by Christmas 1963. He was obviously wrong, but like so many others today, he understood the value of providing optimistic reports to Washington.
It will be interesting to see which retired four-stars are picked by the White House and the mainstream media to calm fears of failure in Venezuela.
At this critical juncture, Washington should pause to reflect on Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara’s question of how long it would take to get the 101st Airmobile Division into Vietnam. General Lyman Lemnitzer, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, answered with "Not long. The real question is how long it will take to get out."
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