Thread by @laurimyllyvirta

NEW from us: current clean energy targets and trends enable China, India, and Indonesia to peak power sector emissions by 2030. This would be a global breakthrough given that these nations have been the largest growth markets for coal in the decade since the Paris Agreement.

China, India and Indonesia used 73% of the world's coal in 2024. Without their emissions growth, global energy sector CO2 would have peaked before 2020. Coal use grew 15% in China, 42% in India, and 150% in Indonesia 2015-2024, while consumption in the rest of the world fell 23%.

China’s power sector emissions have been falling since early 2024 and will continue to decline if the country continues its current clean energy growth.

India’s power sector emissions will peak if the country meets its 2030 non-fossil energy target and continues adding clean energy at similar rates thereafter.

In Indonesia, achieving President Prabowo's 100 GW solar goal, if realized, combined with the clean energy projects included in the state utility's business plan, will suffice peak emissions from power generation.

If successful, these countries would join several other BRICS nations (Brazil, South Africa, UAE, Ethiopia) in having peaked their power sector emissions, putting the bloc in a perhaps surprising position to claim climate leadership.

We look at the drivers of the clean energy expansion in the three countries, finding that it is driven by improved economics, opportunities to attract manufacturing and investment, as well as energy security and energy access goals.

Common challenges that have to be overcome to realise and sustain the clean energy booms in these three countries include major changes needed to power grid operation, opposition from fossil fuel interest, and continued buildout of coal and gas-fired power generation capacity.

While China and India already have rapid clean energy growth, Indonesia’s solar market is anaemic and the country has a history of missing clean energy targets.

Indonesia’s target of 100 GW solar capacity faces major obstacles such as opposition from the state power company PLN and corruption that has plagued rural development schemes similar to the distributed solar program. Tracking and accountability from the top will be needed.

A common key concern in these three countries is the lack of roadmaps for coal phase-down after peaking. So little clarity on what to expect after the peak.

In each country, there is a possibility of continued rapid clean energy buildout and phase-down of coal, or a drawn-out plateau. The difference between these possibilities would be equivalent to 500 large coal-fired power plants by 2035.

In short, the world’s three largest growth markets for coal power may be nearing a turning point. Policy decisions made in the next few years will determine whether each of the three countries seizes this opportunity to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.

Big thanks to our Indonesia, India and China analysts for working on this with me: Katherine Hasan, @manoj_kumar_nr, Nadine Zahiruddin and Qi Qin.

Read the full report:

https://x.com/CREACleanAir/status/1982871065668845885