Thread by @OjeagaOseromore

Here's an amateur's analysis of the coup rumours.
If we're to use IBBs playbook on coups, using the Shagari coup as a case study, and also consider the Jan 1966 coup, then it might be too late.

The fact that there's a serious public discourse among citizens considering if a coup

would be welcomed as an answer to the politicians, due to what looks like a phantom coup plot, simply points to what IBB described as "coup baiting."

It means there's a real group of officers and political backers who want to guage the reactions of the public to a real coup.

If there's a coup coming, then the trigger men are in plain sight, they've had a meeting long ago and gotten the blessings of a few clandestine senior officers who are also clearly within top sensitive military positions like IBB, Buhari, Yaradua and Co were during Shagari's time

The attempt by the govt to smoke them out and put new defence chiefs who are loyal, especially the new chief of intelligence, only serves to make the trigger men more cautious and change plans, this is similar to Nzeogwu and Co.

Everyone actually knew there might be a coup

The govt had loyal defence chiefs who felt they were in strategic positions to neutralise it, which is why I believe Nzeogwu was taken away from the NA intelligence, but they played into his hands with his posting to Kaduna, and even in KD he was asked if he was planning a coup,

but he obviously denied it. Anyway, my analysis is that someone is being fooled right now.

Coups most times fail when put down on the day of execution because different forces may switch loyalty at critical points, or someone messes up their mission.

So, I believe this is most

likely the first move in the chess game if the govt of Tinubu is wary of a coup d'etat.

The trigger men, mostly Lt.Cols, Majors and Captains, will stop any chatter, and their godfathers who are in plain sight will right now be reassuring the govt of its safety.

Tick tock tick..