🚨 NEW RESEARCH — The ability of China’s militia forces to support the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) across all domains is likely improving. My latest explores war-oriented militia training reforms since 2018 1/x (link and key findings below)
Under the Central Military Commission’s (CMC) leadership, authorities have reoriented militia forces toward wartime needs over emergency response, and are working to improve militia training facilities, participation, realism, jointness, eval., etc. recordedfuture.com/research/china…
Authorities are using:
⦿ Technologies like VR for immersive drills
⦿ Methods like “no script” training to enhance decision-making
⦿ Rotational approaches to improve militia readiness
⦿ Flexible organization to develop niche skills in domains like cyberspace
Militia training with the People’s Liberation Army is likely becoming more regular, institutionalized through the joint operations training system and top-down reforms to strengthen coordination. Joint training with other military and non-military forces is also likely increasing
15 provinces have (particularly since Dec. 2023) implemented policies at the CMC's direction to increase public enthusiasm for militia construction and militia training, directly addressing concerns that have historically impaired the quality of China’s militia forces
The CMC is guiding these and other reforms (e.g., of training bases, instruction, financing, and militia equipment management) to drive forward militia construction in support of China’s integrated national strategic system and capability, demanding real effort and results
The CMC likely assesses progress in key areas. While progress remains slow and uneven, recent forms have likely placed militia development on a trajectory that could overturn conventional views of these forces. Pockets of excellence are likely emerging in cyberspace and at sea
The report argues militias should be studied more closely, as major changes in the attention, investment, and time devoted to militia work in areas near potential conflict zones (like Fujian) would likely serve as a warning indicator about China’s intentions (e.g., toward Taiwan)
In addition to those tagged above, possibly of interest to:
🚨 NEW REPORT: My latest with @zoehaver reveals how China will use, and is preparing to use, cyber coercion & warfare to achieve “reunification” with Taiwan from the perspective of authoritative Chinese sources and real-world behavior. bit.ly/3VjLQd1
A thread 👇
People’s Liberation Army (PLA) textbooks & other sources, gov/mil/intel/societal activities, and known cyber ops demonstrate the party-state has the strategic thought, force development pathways, and capability to execute peacetime and wartime cyber campaigns targeting Taiwan
Before war, China very likely sees cyber coercion (网络威慑) as an option for compelling Taiwan to cease “pro-independence” activities. Coercion is a political activity, and sources indicate political, diplomatic, & economic struggles should integrate a cyber component
A recently declassified National Intelligence Council assessment from April 2020 sheds some light on the Chinese Communist Party's approach to big data+AI-enabled targeted propaganda
a short 🧵 w/ excerpts & my own analysis of public data that show this dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
"Chinese intelligence officials analyzed multiple US state' [redacted] election voter registration data, ... [long redaction] to conduct public opinion analysis on the 2020 US general election"
"We assess that Beijing's commercial access to personal data of other countries, along with AI-driven analytics, will enable it to automate the identification of individuals and groups beyond China's borders to target with propaganda or censorship"
🚨 NEW REPORT: My latest exposes the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) evolving approach to targeted propaganda based on gender, values, hobbies, & other individual, community, and country-level factors 1/x
The formula of the new model: research + surveys + behavioral data + innovation = tailored products w/ maximum appeal, where innovation is reflected in diversifying propaganda tactics & audience understanding is aided by big data, intl corporations, and advertising tools
Called “precise communication,” this strategy is a driving factor in several trends observers have been tracking in recent years: greater media localization, growing use of online influencers and meme-style communication, and global data collection and social media monitoring
🚨 NEW REPORT: My latest reveals new details about China’s defense planning, incl. the full range of military and civilian resources enrolled in military-civil fusion (MCF) efforts as well as the development trajectory of new-type militia forces THREAD
Monitoring militia development and the 1000s of national defense mobilization (NDM) resources available to the party-state and military, both in China and around the world, is a prerequisite for adequate policy and defense planning in relation to China
According to a draft document from the Central Military Commission (CMC) –– a key source for this report –– NDM resources include those for weapons research, maritime transport, cyber capabilities, public opinion guidance, natural resources, space tech, and much, much more 👇
My new report for @RecordedFuture explores how the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) strives to preempt future opposition by increasing its appeal among young people globally. It illuminates core concepts and debates related to the CCP’s propaganda strategy 1/ recordedfuture.com/elephants-stre…
The title, Elephants Must Learn to Street Dance, is the catchphrase used by a current central propaganda official to describe how China’s media industry must evolve. The drawing I posted earlier is my interpretation of this phrase and the report's central theme:
This report draws on leadership speeches and the writings of communication theorists in China to argue that youth targeting is a newly resurgent area of focus and explore the wide range of media/approaches being used in this effort
Italian police arrested 6 this week over an allegedly surreptitious drone company acquisition by PRC state-owned enterprises (SOE) via a Hong Kong shell. They released a redacted ownership chart - I’ve filled it in using corporate records 👇
Let’s walk thru this case, but 1st...
CRRC may stand out to folks familiar with my past work. My Open Arms report w/ @C4ADS documented CRRC’s role in acquiring UK-based Dynex Semiconductor, moving production to China (*remember this part*), and likely aiding military technology breakthroughs tinyurl.com/43atvbr8
To begin, Italian police allege that PRC SOEs and gov entities conspired to buy Alpi Aviation, which agreed, in violation of export controls and investment review regs. Alpi makes the Strix-DF unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for military use and participates in Italy’s defense R&D