Thread by @D_isherenow

🧵Let’s break this down strategically and mathematically to show how Curtis Sliwa could still win or force a runoff despite those surface numbers.

https://twitter.com/opensourcezone/status/1985047856185536721

🧩What the poll shows

This NYC mayor poll breaks voters into three segments — D, R, & I.
Each #️⃣ is within that party’s group, not citywide.
Mamdani dominates among D, but not all Dems are loyal.
Sliwa dominates R, his natural base.
Cuomo splits I, with Sliwa tied for second

🗽 What that means citywide

New York City’s rough voter composition (based on registration data):
•Democrats: ~65%
•Republicans: ~10%
•Independents/Other: ~25%

Now we need to figure out the estimated weighted support for each candidate next.

Mamdani
Dems: 0.59×65 = 38.35
GOP: 0.04×10 = 0.4
Ind: 0.29×25 = 7.25
Weighted total ≈ 46%

Cuomo
Dems: 0.33×65 = 21.45
GOP: 0.29×10 = 2.9
Ind: 0.40×25 = 10
Weighted total ≈ 34%

Sliwa
Dems: 0.06×65 = 3.9
GOP: 0.66×10 = 6.6
Ind: 0.29×25 = 7.25
Weighted total ≈ 18%

So, citywide Mamdani leads, but this is before turnout and cross-party behavior.

NYC’s voter registration skews Democrat, but turnout doesn’t:

Democratic turnout often hovers around 35–40% of registrants.

GOP turnout is 55–60%.

Independent turnout can swing elections.

🗳️It’s important to vote Nov 4

Dem enthusiasm is low (Mamdani’s socialist base isn’t citywide),

GOP turns out heavily for Sliwa,

Independents split roughly evenly,

👉 Sliwa’s smaller but higher-turnout coalition can overtake or force a runoff if the race is below 50%.

The true partisan anchor in NYC’s mayoral race? @CurtisSliwa — the Guardian Angel who’s not just talking tough on crime, but living it. He’s the real deal, fighting the left’s socialist machine with nothing but grit, & a promise: no surrender, no retreat. #NYCMayor #Sliwa2025

🧠 Bottom line

➡️ The path for Sliwa is very real if:
Mamdani & Cuomo split the left. GOP & Independents turn out hard, & the election goes to a runoff or three-way split.

This is the same math that let Eric Adams win the Democratic primary in 2021 with only 29%. 🤫🤐

🔥 NYC Mayor Poll Breakdown (weighted by party)

Mamdani: 46%
Cuomo: 34%
Sliwa: 18%

But here’s the twist — with Cuomo splitting Dems & Sliwa dominating GOP + Indies, this race could flip or force a runoff. 🗳️💥

#NYC #Election2025 #CurtisSliwa

🗽 New York City’s future is shaped by those who show up.
On November 4, make your voice count.
Vote with purpose. Vote for the city you believe in. Vote @CurtisSliwa #NYC #Election2025 #CurtisSliwa

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