I thoroughly believe in celebrating the small victories, so here is a tiny one.
The percentage of humanity's energy system that is derived from fossil fuels, ticked down again in 2024 and is now technically at the lowest level since the 1960s, though fossil fuels still dominate.
This change is more noticeable if one focuses on just electricity (rather than all forms of energy), as the rise of solar and wind electricity have been grabbing market share at a rapid pace.
Unfortunately though, "percentage of energy" is fairly optimistic framing.
In absolute terms, natural gas and oil use have continued to grow.
Renewables are expanding faster, and thus grabbing a bigger share, but we are still very far from a clean energy transition.
If there is any reason for optimism, it is this.
Solar energy is growing at a faster pace than any energy technology in history, and wind is not far behind.
The explosive growth of solar, wind, & batteries creates the potential for a rapid transition, though as yet unrealized.
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The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records.
And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected.
A short thread 🧵
Nearly the entire Northern Pacific is experiencing a strong marine heat wave, with record warmth in Japan and abnormally warm waters stretching all the way to the North American coastline.
This much extra warmth in a large ocean basin is very rare.
In case anyone is wondering, about 1/2 of the 150 million tonnes of water vapor injected into the stratosphere by the extremely violent Hunga Tonga eruption (January 2022) is still there.
A fascinating natural experiment for upper atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.
🧵
After the initial plume settled at ~25 km altitude, the water vapor has mostly migrated to higher levels.
Ordinarily, the tropopause (~12-15 km high) greatly limits water vapor from reaching the stratosphere, so the stratosphere is very dry (only a few ppm of water).
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The water vapor plume began at the location of Hunga Tonga (~20° S latitude), but subsequent dynamics carried most of the water vapor higher and towards both poles.
Before I begin, I should note that I am one of the 11 coauthors on this new paper. My contributions are actually fairly modest, and Sebastian and others deserve the lion's share of the credit for developing this work over more than 2 years.
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This story of scientific discovery begins, as so many do, by noticing a small discrepancy in the data.
Through most of the last 170 years, the land measurements and ocean measurements show a similar pattern of global warming, but not in the early 20th century.
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So, what does the re-election of Donald Trump mean for climate change?
We can make some educated guesses based on his first term, his campaign, and the expressed wishes of his allies.
A few of my thoughts as a thread. 🧵
Firstly, a Trump administration obviously means abandoning any leadership role in the global fight against climate change.
He has promised to re-withdraw from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, and possibly the UNFCCC as well.
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Having the USA – world's second largest annual carbon dioxide emitter – withdraw from the international process is obviously not a good thing, and will greatly undermine calls for further ambition on countering climate change.
For a few, climate change will arrive with life-altering violence. But for many, the early consequences of climate change will be more subtle and pernicious.
In a word: Inflation.
Let me explain...
As weather patterns change, a few will suffer greatly, but many will share some of the financial costs incurred.
Lost crops -> Higher food costs
Damaged homes -> Higher home insurance costs
Damaged infrastructure -> Higher taxes
Etc.
Money spent defending against climate-fueled disasters, or recovering from their damages, is money that we won't have to spend on other things.
In its initial stages, climate change adds an extra burden chipping away at our prosperity.
It was the first year that any of the major temperature analysis groups exceeded 1.5 °C above their "preindustrial" 1850-1900 average, thus touching the Paris Agreement limit.
Under the Paris Agreement on Climate Change countries agreed to "pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels".
The exact definition of how that would be measured is intentionally vaguely, but most agree it refers to a multi-year average.
A single year above 1.5°C won't, by itself, be a breach of the limit, as the focus is on the long-term average.
However, reaching 1.5 °C for the first time shows how little time remains.