Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
@Redistrict
Nov 4 • 7 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Pro tip: almost all the attention tonight will be on #NJGov, #VAgov and NYC mayor, but for '26 clues I'll be watching what happens in VA's House of Delegates. Here's why...
Nationally, the median House district voted for Trump by 3.1 pts in 2024. Depending on the final outcome of redistricting, Dems will need to hold/flip seats that voted for Trump by 3-5 pts to win control.
Today, the VA House of Delegates is effectively 51D-49R. But there are eight GOP delegates in districts that voted for Harris in '24, another six in districts that voted for Trump by 0-5 pts, and another seven in districts Trump won by 5-10 pts.
If Dems win something like 55-59 HoD seats tonight, it would be a sizable gain but would indicate Dems are pretty much only flipping Harris districts. Nationally, there are only three GOP members in Harris districts - not enough to win Dems the House.
However, if Dems win 60+ House of Delegates seats, it would indicate a Dem enthusiasm/turnout edge consistent w/ Dems having a good chance to flip the U.S. House, despite a possible 4-8 seat GOP net gain from newly gerrymandered maps.
If Dems win 63+ HoD seats, it would be consistent w/ a lot of strong overperformances we've seen for Dems in downballot races so far in '25 and indicate that Dems should be considered favorites for House control in '26.
Big difference between the VA HoD & U.S. House: today, there are 13 House Dems in Trump seats but zero VA HoD Dems in Trump districts. That gives Dems a head start towards the House majority.

Still, I'll be watching the extent to which VA Dems break into Trump turf tonight.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Jul 30
NEW: as expected, TX Republicans unveil a 30R-8D gerrymander (up from 25R-13D today) that puts Reps. Henry Cuellar (D) and Vicente Gonzalez (D) in double-digit Trump districts and axes one Dem seat each in DFW, Houston & Austin/San Antonio. Image
Interestingly, however, the map doesn't *totally* doom Cuellar & Gonzalez. Cuellar's #TX28 would move from Trump +7 to +10, Gonzalez's #TX34 would move from Trump +5 to +10. Both are potentially survivable given ancestral Dem ties & a midterm without Trump on the ballot.
In Houston, the GOP map merges Rep. Al Green's (D) #TX09 with the vacant safe Dem #TX18, and creates a new #TX09 in eastern Harris County that's 61% Hispanic but also Trump +15. That would be a pretty safe GOP pickup.
Read 6 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Jul 3, 2024
Thread: the key difference between when Biden was “counted out” last time vs. now is that in Feb. 2020, there was a plausible path to a comeback: Black voters & other Dems of color in SC, etc. hadn’t weighed in yet.
In fact, I made the argument after IA/NH in 2020 that there was still a lot of upside for Biden, though that view wasn’t widely shared at the time, and that he was among the most electable Dems in the race vs. Trump. nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1…
Today, a vast majority of voters believe Biden is incapable of finishing a second term, and there’s no legitimate reason to believe that defect will go away or become less of a dealbreaker for voters in the next four months.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Oct 14, 2023
How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.

Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
A big reason Dems beat pundit/historical expectations in the midterms? Only 112M people voted, including a disproportionate turnout among voters angry at Dobbs/abortion bans (many of them young/female).

But there will be ~160M voters in 2024. So who are those extra 48M voters?
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.

On this question - and on immigration/age concerns - Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
Read 5 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
May 11, 2022
On the other hand, Trump-endorsed Charles Herbster (R) is on track to lose the #NEGOV GOP primary badly.
Herbster doing a little better with more Trump-aligned EDay votes reporting, but still not on track to win. #NEGOV
Never underestimate the Trumpiness of the EDay vote. Still a long way to go in #NEGOV.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Feb 7, 2022
Fact: of the 301 new House districts that have now been adopted, just 17 (5.6%) went for Biden or Trump by five points or less, down from 39 of 301 (13.0%) districts in the same states currently.
Back in 2012, after the last redistricting round, 66/435 districts went for Obama or McCain by five points or less. By 2020, only 51/435 districts went for Biden or Trump by five points or less - in other words, voter self-sorting explains a lot of the competitive decline.
But the 2022 redistricting cycle is rapidly compounding the decline. There may only be 30-35 seats in that range by the time all is said and done.

So the House's pro-GOP bias may be reduced or eliminated, but the House is also on pace to be more anti-competitive than ever.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Wasserman Profile picture
Feb 3, 2022
NEW: for the first time, Dems have taken the lead on @CookPolitical's 2022 redistricting scorecard. After favorable developments in NY, AL, PA et. al., they're on track to net 2-3 seats from new maps vs. old ones.*
*There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in:

- FL, where Rs are debating how aggressive to be
- NC/OH, where courts may order big changes to GOP maps
- PA, where the state Sup Ct will select a map
- AL/LA/SC, where SCOTUS could decide on additional Black opportunity seats
*Evergreen disclaimer: this doesn't mean Dems are on track to gain House seats *overall* in 2022. A 2-3 seat redistricting gain is significant, but a 42% Biden approval rating could be worth several dozen seats to the GOP in November.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(