Want early insight into bellwethers for #NJGovernor results tonight? Keep an eye on #PassaicCounty, which in 2021 closely matched then-incumbent Gov Murphy's margin (51.5% D to 47.7% R - Ciattarelli) before flipping to Trump in 2024 (49.7% R to 46.8% D - Harris).
Bergen County is a sleeper for a close race as well as it was a 5.6% margin for Murphy in 2021 but narrowed to a 3.4% win for Harris over Trump in 2024. If Ciattarelli wants to pull off the moderate underdog upset he'll need to be competitive in both counties early on.
Additionally, keep in mind that in NJ mail ballots are allowed to be processed (basically "organized") just 5 days before Election Day and cannot be counted until ED voting has begun.
This means 2 things: first, results will take longer to appear tonight than in states like Ohio that can process and count mail ballots earlier than Election Day and just "dump" those results first at the beginning of the night. If you have things to do tomorrow morning...
...don't stay up late if it's close. And don't be surprised if you still wake up to a headline like "Sherrill leads marginally, but many ballots left outstanding". The past few NJ general elections have typically taken until Wednesday evening at the earliest to confirm a winner.
Second, since the popularity of mail-in balloting (mostly among left leaning voters) has increased over the past few years, in many states we see a shift towards Republicans as the night goes on...
..due to blue/left/mail ballots typically being counted first and red/right/in person ballots counted second. The shift is nearly non-existent in NJ. Due to the aforementioned rules many counties release mail ballot and in person ballot results together with no clear distinction.
Thus the candidate leading after the first few hours and solid large city results is generally the candidate who wins. No come from behinds in the Garden State!
(Although personally we here at CU Polls are curious about the effects, if any, of the abolishment of the party line)
(Although personally we here at CU Polls are curious about the effects, if any, of the abolishment of the party line)
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