Alden Whitfeld Profile picture
Nov 6, 2025 2 tweets 2 min read Read on X
No. The Pew method employs DW-NOMINATE, which is a joke for cross-time comparisons. Since the issues Congress votes on changes over time, the method assumes that legislators don’t change their voting tendencies much. To compare different Congresses, DW-NOMINATE assumes some legislators’ ideology is stable over time and uses them as benchmarks. But this assumptions is just blatantly untenable and almost certainly false (see Joe Biden et al.). Worse yet, all votes are treated as equivalent even if the stakes are wildly different. According to this method, voting to abolish the income tax versus reducing the income tax by 1% is equally radical if the partisan split is the same. If we take its results at face value, Congress was more liberal in 1970 than now. Does anyone seriously believe this?

See: thebulwark.com/p/the-mismeasu…
Also, WRT to the party as a whole, FT picks two issues where Republican ideology has been remarkably stable, but zoom out a bit and you’ll see that they’ve moved leftward as well. In fact, most of the “political polarization” in the country is just due to Democrats liberalizing much faster than Republicans:

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More from @AldenWhitfeld

Jun 17
So anyways, here’s a study showing how most of the “political polarization” in the U.S. is due to Democrats liberalizing much faster than Republicans over time, including decades before Trump was ever in office. Image
Here are the results for each individual issue over time: Image
Here are the same issues by race over time: Image
Image
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Read 5 tweets
May 10, 2025
Interesting study from 2015 investigating 158 countries from 1960 to 2007 and comparing human development across electoral authoritarian regimes (these regimes have a legislature in which elections are held, but the executive branch is functionally completely independent and runs the show) and democracies using instrumental variables. Electoral authoritarian and democracies perform comparably in reducing infant mortality.Image
We see that they also perform similarly across other indicators of development: Image
The one area in which electoral authoritarian regimes performed worse than democracies on was when it came to political liberties, perhaps unsurprisingly (Table 3). Since they provide both the coefficient and the t-statistic in their tables, it's possible to manually compute the CIs of the effect sizes.

Civil Liberties
EA History: Coefficient = 0.15, t = 2.33, SE = 0.15/2.33 ≈ 0.064495%, CI: 0.15 ± 1.96 × 0.0644 ≈ [0.0237, 0.2763]

Democracy History: Coefficient = 0.39, t = 8.19, SE = 0.39/8.19 ≈ 0.047695%, CI: 0.39 ± 1.96 × 0.0476 ≈ [0.2967, 0.4833]

No overlap, probably a real difference.

Free Speech
EA History: Coefficient = 0.11, t = 1.32, SE = 0.11/1.32 ≈ 0.083395%, CI: 0.11 ± 1.96 × 0.0833 ≈ [-0.0533, 0.2733]

Democracy History: Coefficient = 0.35, t = 5.31, SE = 0.35/5.31 ≈ 0.065995%, CI: 0.35 ± 1.96 × 0.0659 ≈ [0.2208, 0.4792]

Hard to interpret because even though the CIs did overlap, the effect size for EA History was not significant at the start.

Women's Rights
EA History: Coefficient = 0.14, t = 2.13, SE = 0.14/2.13 ≈ 0.065795%, CI: 0.14 ± 1.96 × 0.0657 ≈ [0.0112, 0.2688]

Democracy History: Coefficient = 0.18, t = 3.55, SE = 0.18/3.55 ≈ 0.050795%, CI: 0.18 ± 1.96 × 0.0507 ≈ [0.0806, 0.2794]

Significant overlap, likely no difference.

Physical Integrity
EA History: Coefficient = 0.03, t = 0.45, SE = 0.03/0.45 ≈ 0.066795%, CI: 0.03 ± 1.96 × 0.0667 ≈ [-0.1007, 0.1607]

Democracy History: Coefficient = 0.14, t = 3.15, SE = 0.14/3.15 ≈ 0.044495%, CI: 0.14 ± 1.96 × 0.0444 ≈ [0.0529, 0.2271]

Same case as free speech, hard to interpret because EA History was not significant from the start despite the overlapping CIs.

So all we know for certain is that when it comes to political liberties, electoral authoritarian regimes like women's rights as much as democracies do, cringe!Image
Read 4 tweets

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