Giulio Caravaggio Profile picture
Nov 6 β€’ 11 tweets β€’ 2 min read β€’ Read on X
1/ 🚨 Breaking down the UAE's controversial ransom payment to JNIM in Mali πŸ‡²πŸ‡± for the release of two Emirati hostages.

Based on recent reports, this deal involved massive cash and arms, boosting the jihadist group amid escalating tensions.
2/ The two Emiratis πŸ‡¦πŸ‡ͺ, part of an official military cooperation mission, were abducted on Sept 23, 2025, near Bamako alongside an Iranian national.

They were supervising delivery of drones and comm systems from a UAE firm to Mali's army.
3/ JNIM demanded $100M and release of prisoners. Negotiations, mediated by Ahmada Ag Bibi (who handled past releases like Sophie PΓ©tronin for France πŸ‡«πŸ‡·), hit snags when many demanded detainees were found dead from torture in Malian custody.
4/ The final deal includes: UAE paid ~$50M in cash (some reports say up to $70M, with $20M substituting for munitions). Plus, 20 tons of weapons delivered via Chad πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡©, and Mali released ~25-30 JNIM members.
5/ The hostages were freed and arrived in Bamako from Gao. They allegedly flew out on Oct 31 via a SkyMark Executive Gulfstream to Dubai πŸ‡¦πŸ‡ͺ (reg. T7-LJA), as suggested by @fabsenbln .
6/ This payout gives JNIM a huge cash and arms infusion, fueling their operations.

It strengthens the group imposing a fuel blockade on Bamako πŸ‡²πŸ‡±, forcing business closures and long petrol lines β€” just 30km from the capital.
7/ Critics blast UAE for arming terrorists, but Mali's govt fully agreed β€” possibly gaining extras like military gear from Abu Dhabi.
8/ Meanwhile, other foreign hostages (Chinese, Indian, Iranian) remain captive, lacking similar resources or political will for deals.

This highlights how kidnappings are still among the most effective ways of funding for extremists in the Sahel.
9/ The episode draws parallels to past ransoms, like France's $17M payment in 2013 (via Mali) for four hostages from the 2010 Arlit uranium mine abduction by Islamists.
10/ Meanwhile, governments worldwide advise against travel to Mali and urge citizens to leave ❌️, fearing for their nationals amid the imminent security collapse.
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More from @_ilcaravaggio

Jul 26
πŸ‡³πŸ‡ͺ π‘―π’π’˜ π’Šπ’” π‘΅π’Šπ’ˆπ’†π’“ π’•π’˜π’ π’šπ’†π’‚π’“π’” 𝒂𝒇𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒑?

Exactly two years ago, a coup d'Γ©tat changed Niger's recent trajectory. It was led by the head of the presidential guard and carried out by elements of the armed forces. What has changed since then? Image
Niger is a strategically important country for controlling energy and migration routes in the Sahel. It connects the Sahara Desert and the Gulf of Guinea, which is why it was chosen by France πŸ‡«πŸ‡· and the US πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ as a bastion of their influence in the region.
The turmoil generated by the coup particularly affected relations with the West, with many countries gradually excluded from civil, economic and military cooperation. With the Americans and French ousted, new partners, such as Russia πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί and Turkey πŸ‡ΉπŸ‡·, have stepped in. Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 8
1/ Lo "Scramble for the Horn of Africa" rischia di far saltare una nuova polveriera

Negli ultimi mesi il Corno d'Africa ha osservato un preoccupante aumento dell'instabilitΓ . La fragile tenuta interna degli Stati e i dissapori tra i vari attori della regione favoriscono infatti
2/ un clima di tensione pronto ad esplodere da un momento all'altro. Di cosa parliamo? Il Corno d'Africa comprende gli Stati sovrani di Eritrea, Etiopia, Gibuti e Somalia, nonchΓ© lo Stato non riconosciuto del Somaliland.
3/ Il c.d. Corno allargato comprende anche altri Stati integrati nelle dinamiche regionali, in particolare Kenya, Sudan, Sudan del Sud e Uganda. L'instabilitΓ  regionale riflette grandi mutamenti sociali, climatici e demografici nell'area e ha giΓ  portato a cruenti conflitti
Read 16 tweets
Mar 27
1/ (non) Breve riassunto della situazione in Sudan del Sud, Paese sempre piΓΉ vicino ad una nuova guerra civile. Image
2/ Il Sud Sudan Γ¨ il piΓΉ giovane Stato al mondo, indipendente dal 2011. La sua storia Γ¨ stata segnata da un cruento conflitto civile tra il 2013 e il 2018 (380mila morti e 3,5 milioni di sfollati).
3/ La guerra nacque da una faida per il potere tra I due maggiori gruppi etnici del Paese, i Dinka e i Nuer, rappresentati rispettivamente dal presidente Kiir e dal vicepresidente Machar. Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 1
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ 1/ L'incontro tra Trump e Zelensky Γ¨ stato un disastro. Tuttavia, ci offre un'occasione unica per analizzare il modo di fare politica estera di Trump. πŸ‘‡
2/ Il presidente πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ (e il vp Vance) agiscono secondo un copione ad uso e consumo interno. Discutono con Zelensky secondo i termini della propria campagna elettorale.
3/ Con la storia delle terre rare ucraine (che di certo non valgono $350 mld) e gli attacchi personali al presidente πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦, Trump parla al suo popolo.
Read 13 tweets

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