Sentiment is understandably skeptical on every move, but cleaning house of legacy scouting and recruitment personnel is a good sign on a relative basis, IMO.
Even with the DD-as-de-facto-DoF the quality of talent ID and profiling has been erratic and poor.
It is possible that DD has finally woken up a bit on a relative basis?
In a column from July where I reviewed his September 2020 interview published in The Athletic, he referenced his view on collective responsibility and reticence to fire people.
Is he going to fire himself?
With many in the support talking about the club "modernizing," what would that look like?
Directionally, it would be hiring someone like Wilfried Nancy, who currently works in one of the more progressive and emerging analytics-focused clubs in MLS, Columbus.
Their head of analytics has a masters degree in bioinformatics- as I have said and written repeatedly, the modern sporting "arms race" is about empowering smart/intelligent people to unleash smarter decision making across operations.
I smart move would be to lift out him along
with Nancy.
THAT would be a move towards modernizing and likely far more portable/replicable than what Knutsen has been central to building at Bodo/Glimt.
Ironically, see a lot of online chatter arguing for modernization while at the same time advocating for another version
of the legacy model - i.e. a "manager as god" appointment.
Obviously, need to see who actually gets hired, and I'll remain skeptical about DD realizing the errors in his stewardship until there are tangible signs of progress, but it would be churlish and counterproductive to
be automatically negative regardless of what changes are made.
So far, two big problems in talent ID and utilization have departed, which is good news, IMO.
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Our @huddlebreakdown audience can attest to the fact that I began commenting that Hearts could have a legit opportunity to win the 2025-2026 season back in February.
I even bet some money on them when they were at 25-1 odds...obviously not because I am "rooting" for them
but because I thought it was badly mispriced...well McKinlay's interview with @mcgowan_stephen makes me feel better about recent decision to have already banked that mispricing.
He speaks with a forked toungue, as has McInnes at times in public. They seem to be engaged in some
combination of preference falsification and/or self-delusion amidst an appeal to the Bloom "authority".
@Alan_Morrison67 and I laid out two anecdotal sign posts on how progressive the adoption and integration of the Bloom revolution would be within the culture at Hearts.
First of all modern western governments pretty much all lie about inflation as a way to cheat on long term entitlement costs. That is a different and hugely important topic, but probably good for 2-4% above what they report.
The Cantillion effect is a concept which states that
during a period of money supply growth, the effects of the monetary inflation are not evenly distributed. Those closest to the expansion (speculators, asset owners, banks, etc) benefit 1st and disproportionately then effects, both good and bad matriculate across society unevenly.
I have been thinking about how to go about doing this review and have settled on doing it in segments. My goal is to lay out an analytical framework for measuring historical performance for Celtic in order to offer context for making performance assessments. This first segment
will lay out the framework and why I am doing this. I decided to look into this as an extension of the analysis I started doing on the recent Celtic seasons about 18 months ago. Like when I began 18 months ago, I didn't have a good sense of what an analysis would yield.
Let me also state that I do not presume to "know" anything. I am putting forth my analysis using the tools I have found available. I've tried my best to source accurate data but there will be some estimations.
I am sharing this because I was going to do it for my own curiousity
Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic at St Johnstone game. Had a long morning of driving today so a bit late posting. Non-penalty xG was 1.94 vs 0.34 on 10 vs 5 shots. That differential of 1.60 was very close to the avg I shared ahead of the game- 1.51
So I would characterize the overall output as fine. Similar to the St Mirren game, the dispersion of performance levels in the game was skewed late, as had 0.94 xG before Edouard's 1st goal, with 0.40 of that coming on the Duffy chance off the Turnbull free kick delivery.
Celtic also won just 42.32% of duels overall- poorly placed/sloppy passing was widespread. Christie offered 2 moments of excellence which enabled the same from Edouard- other than Edouard's 1st half cross, that was pretty much the entirety of Celtic's attack.
Performance benchmarking for today's Celtic at St Johnstone game. Non-penalty xG had avg 2.23 vs 0.72 on 17.70 shots in Perth. Celticnhave outperformed that avg xG by averaging 3 goals over the 9 league games since the start of the 2015-2016 season.
St. Johnstone are probably
the oddest statistically team in the league this season, as they are currently 3rd in xG differential overall after Rangers and Celtic, and have conceded about the same amountof non-penalty xG per 90 minutes as Celtic.
However, their finishing & keeper play have been very poor.
They've scored just 24 non-penalty goals vs over 34 in npxG and conceded 34 non-penalty goals vs just 24 in npxG. That is a massive 20 goal swing overall and explains why they are 8th in the real table instead of 3rd.
Clark has been particularly poor this season overall, avg
Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic vs Rangers game. Non-penalty xG was 0.14 vs 1.26. To address one of the hot topics coming out of the game, next tweet shows other games with low number of shots on target since Deila's last season-only gladbach @ home
A reminder that event-based xG models are just one of many analytical tools. For example, Wyscout's assigned very low probability to Moi's chance. As has been the case this season generally, we lacked attacking output from midfield and the two "strikers."
Understanding why xG was low on Moi's shot is important- he struck the ball with his right foot- from that position and relative to McGregor and the last defender is probably not a shot that goes in...almost ever. Had he used his left foot the xG would likely have been higher.