We are close to the end of a >4 year token bear market.
This is obvious if you understand why we have been in a token bear market to begin with — over the past few years, tokens have had low-to-no rights and traded at ridiculous valuations. Nobody has wanted to hold those assets in the aggregate (although there have been many good single name opportunities!).
Tokens have been getting more attractive every year since — tokens have been getting cheaper on a DCF-basis / bestowed more rights to tokenholders every year over the past four years.
The bear market has effectively been a painful and prolonged negotiation between tokenholders and token issuers. We want more rights and better valuations while token issuers want to provide fewer rights and to issue at higher valuations.
In 2021 there was a lot of liquid capital / permabulls dominated the market so token issuers had the upper hand and basically gave us a flaming pile of garbage in the aggregate (I repeat that there were many good single name opportunities if you knew where to look).
The market has matured one funeral at a time and going into 2026 there is less liquid capital and those who have survived are disciplined. Meanwhile the adoption / revenue opportunity has never been better.
I don't know when the prolonged token bear market of 2022-2025(6?) will end but conditions are better today than they have been at any point in the past few years. It's a good setup.
This is obvious if you understand why we have been in a token bear market to begin with — over the past few years, tokens have had low-to-no rights and traded at ridiculous valuations. Nobody has wanted to hold those assets in the aggregate (although there have been many good single name opportunities!).
Tokens have been getting more attractive every year since — tokens have been getting cheaper on a DCF-basis / bestowed more rights to tokenholders every year over the past four years.
The bear market has effectively been a painful and prolonged negotiation between tokenholders and token issuers. We want more rights and better valuations while token issuers want to provide fewer rights and to issue at higher valuations.
In 2021 there was a lot of liquid capital / permabulls dominated the market so token issuers had the upper hand and basically gave us a flaming pile of garbage in the aggregate (I repeat that there were many good single name opportunities if you knew where to look).
The market has matured one funeral at a time and going into 2026 there is less liquid capital and those who have survived are disciplined. Meanwhile the adoption / revenue opportunity has never been better.
I don't know when the prolonged token bear market of 2022-2025(6?) will end but conditions are better today than they have been at any point in the past few years. It's a good setup.
https://x.com/TheiaResearch/status/1988241585834734001
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