Robert Y. Chen Profile picture
Nov 13 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
🚨 FDA'S NEW PLAUSIBLE MECHANISM PATHWAY

@DrMakaryFDA @VPrasadMDMPH just published the @US_FDA most important position piece on biotech regulation in America.

It's short.

but it's 🔥

What you need to know about where the US rare/incurable-disease biotech is headed 🧵Image
"...a path to market entry for products where a randomized trial is not feasible."

While RCTs are the "gold-standard" for assessing efficacy, it's not always feasible to run or power.

FDA typically requires two "successful" RCTs for approval.

It's now going to be flexible.
"The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is committed to providing regulatory guidance and encouragement..."

It's easy to think of regulators as the enemy.

But they are your friend.

They have seen thousands of trials.

Listen to them. There is wisdom in resistance.
The FDA’s plausible mechanism pathway

What does this require?
» Specific biological/cellular/molecular cause is "known"
» Treatment targets most proximal mechanism
» Disease has predictable natural history
» Confirmation that mechanism was targeted
» Clinical course improves
"The FDA will consider previous clinical course and, in some cases, will view patients as their own control."

AND

"Clinical data must be strong enough to exclude regression to the mean."

Translation: no control arm required, but stats must hold.
IMPORTANTLY:

"Once a manufacturer has demonstrated success with several consecutive patients with different bespoke therapies, the FDA will move toward granting marketing authorization for the product."

You heard it.

SEVERAL PATIENTS → FDA APPROVAL
MOST IMPORTANTLY:

"Manufacturers will then be able to leverage platform data from such personalized products to gain marketing approval for similar products in additional conditions"

Translation: You can use data from previous trials to accelerate new trials.
"For instance, a single disease with 150 different genetic mutations with the same functional implication may require 150 different therapies, and the plausible mechanism pathway would be ideally suited to such therapies"

Translation: Severe Autism Spectrum Disorder

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More from @therealRYC

Nov 6
🚨 A WEEK OF LANDMARK PAPERS

Clozapine is the batman of psychiatric meds.

A villain in the public eye. A hero behind the scenes.

Study after study, clozapine has been shown to be the most effective antipsychotic for schizophrenia.

But what about for other disorders? 🧵Published in Lancet Psychiatry this week. Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(25)00297-4/fulltext
🗺️ Registry studies

Sweden and Finland have national registries for healthcare.

That means every patient's data is accessible to researchers.

An entire population.

The huge sample size allows us to answer questions in psychiatry that nobody would run a trial for.Image
🔎 How good (or bad) is clozapine?

For example, clozapine is sometimes, but less often used in disorders out side of schizophrenia.

In schizophrenia, it's the GOAT - so much so that it wasn't even included in a recent landmark head-to-head comparison of 7 antipsychotics.

For other disorders?

No one really knows.

Read 8 tweets
Nov 2
🚨 Are SSRIs actually effective in real-world settings?

I'm talking about:
» Outpatient
» Mild depression
» Prescribed by family medicine/GPs

There is one, 500+ patient study that actually looked at this question - the 2019 PANDA study.

The answer?

NO... and... sort of?🧵Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2215036619303669?via%3Dihub
📊 Why another SSRI trial?

Network meta-analysis of antidepressants show that they simply work.

But meta-analyses are only as good as the trials that go into them

And usually, those trials are:
» Industry-sponsored
» Sub-specialty settings
» Moderate-severe depressionSource: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)32802-7/fulltext
🗺️ The Evidence Gap

But in the real-world, antidepressants are:
» Prescribed by GPs
» Prescribed to patients with mild depression

Therein lies the gap in our knowledge.

How well do antidepressants work in the real world?Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 31
🚨 LANDMARK STUDY ALERT

The largest, multicenter, assessor-blinded, RCT of antipsychotic efficacy was just published this week.

7 arms.

7 antipsychotics.

3000 patients.

» All antipsychotics ↓ symptoms by 50% in 6 weeks
» Olanzapine, risperidone > the restPublished in the American Journal of Psychiatry two days ago. Source: https://psychiatryonline.org/doi/10.1176/appi.ajp.20250111
BUT

and it's a big BUT

The efficacy difference between the best (Olanzapine) and worst (Ziprasidone) was only an absolute percentage reduction of 8%.

Meanwhile, Olanzapine had an OUTSIZED impact on weight gain and metabolic syndrome.Image
For real world outcomes, like discontinuation:

» Olanzapine, Risperidone, and Haloperidol had the lowest discontinuation due to being ineffective.

» Aripiprazole had the highest rate of discontinuation due to ineffectiveness

This study will guide clinical practice.Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 23
🚨 Is ketamine effective for treating depression when tested in a trial that actually controls for confounders?

You be the judge:
» 3 point difference on MADRS vs control
» MADRS is a 60 point scale

How to reconcile this landmark study published yesterday in JAMA Psych 🧵Image
💉What to know about ketamine for depression

Ketamine has time and time again shown to be effective for treating depression:
✅ Treatment-resistance
✅ Bipolar depression
✅ Suicidality ↓Source: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/10398562251328805
🤔 Not the whole story

Because ketamine is so strong, you can't really blind patients to treatment.

And if they are getting ketamine and expect it to work, chances are it does.

Ketamine: Belief → effect
Placebo: Doubt → no effect

This is expectancy bias.Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 9
🚨 The older the sperm, the more likely it is to cause autism

Sequencing sperm using nearly error-free sequencing → measure % sperm carrying disease-causing mutations:

2% at age 30 → 4.5% at 70

Most were autism genes

New paper in @Nature today 🧵https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09448-3#Fig3
👴 Why does parental age matter?

• Spermatogonial stem cells produce millions of sperm daily, with a mutation rate 5–20x lower than other cells.
• Driver mutations in these cells can clonally expand, increasing their presence in sperm and potentially passing to offspring.
• Prior studies linked 13 genes to developmental disorders, but new tech (NanoSeq) now allows broader exploration.

x.com/KeithSakata/st…
📊 The Study

• Analyzed 81 semen and 119 blood samples (ages 24–75) from TwinsUK cohort using whole-genome, exome, and targeted NanoSeq.
• NanoSeq’s duplex sequencing detects mutations at single-molecule resolution (error rate <5 × 10⁻⁹).Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 2
🚨 The FIRST RCT of antipsychotic discontinuation was published YESTERDAY.

Do antipsychotics in patients with first-episode psychosis actually improve long-term outcomes?

In short:

NO

But it's nuanced.

Here's what you need to know about this landmark paper in JAMA Psych🧵https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2839607
🤔 To Continue or Taper?

Antipsychotics (APs) are a staple of preventing relapse in Schizophrenia, but long-term studies are mixed.

Wunderlink et al. (% with functional recovery):
» Continue: 17.6%
» Discontinue or dose reduce (DRD): 40.4%

Chen et al. (% patients with poor outcomes):
» Continue: 21%
» DRD: 39%

Neither study was a randomized controlled trialSource: Source: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/1707650?utm_campaign=articlePDF&utm_medium=articlePDFlink&utm_source=articlePDF&utm_content=jamapsychiatry.2025.2525
🏃🏻‍♂️ Function and symptoms are different

Patients can have high symptom burden, but improved function.

Patients often report that function is what matters to them:
» Grocery shopping
» Employment
» Showering by themselves
» Playing video games

etc.Image
Read 7 tweets

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