This was shortly after an article doing a deep dive on Rangers' analytics setup at the time was published in The Athletic and I had stopped doing Good Bad & Ugly game threads.
Coming up on 4 years later and Thelwell's just-released interview makes it likely they are still
As referenced, the hiring of Jaymes Monte an indication they are looking to progress, and I guess it is plausible the "manager has final say on recruitment" framing could be a PR strategy.
Stopped GBU once I was convinced Ange had the team
set to perform at a high level and "Bad & Ugly" parts of threads would have to recycle long-term structural issues that persist to today.
Being optimistic on a potential Nancy hire does not mean de facto expectation that structural issues are being addressed.
However, skepticism can turn into becoming obstinate in the face of emerging evidence.
I am not suggesting that evidence of structural change is occurring, but this would be a window of time when it could- like in summer 2021.
Then there were mixed signs until Desmond slammed
the door, with how that transfer window was managed and a new progressive CEO emptied rapidly.
History suggests, including his recent public statement on the club's operating model, that structural issues are not likely to change materially.
But the operating model has been
fully dysfunctional since Ange left, even within the context of the long-term structure. Recruitment has been horrible with a manager who was/is not good at profiling players.
Those factors were masked by Rangers being a total mess and two successive easy Champions League draws.
All the while squad depth and quality was already poorly aligned with the manager's style of play and then gutted with the recruitment train wrecks.
That leaves a large gap to fill with improved operations even if structural issues persist.
It is plausible we could get a
pseudo-mix of Nick Hammond+Ange where recruitment is not ideal but functional and with a quality head coach, even if things are not totally overhauled. Nancy would offer upside of having worked with strong analytics operation and seen the value of using/trusting those tools.
So not what many of us hope for in totality but the possibility of dramatic relative improvement even if a major overhaul is not coming.
I am not suggesting something similar is likely or imminent, but it is a heuristic for what I keep chronicling relative to McInnes and Hearts.
Huge difference is Hearts' executive team are new to the operating model and probably
complicit in deviating from it, as was evidenced at the commencement with how they went about replacing Critchley.
Clubs like Midtjylland trust the operating model, with good reason, with supremacy. The components, whether DoF or head coach, have to be aligned or else.
Sentiment is understandably skeptical on every move, but cleaning house of legacy scouting and recruitment personnel is a good sign on a relative basis, IMO.
Even with the DD-as-de-facto-DoF the quality of talent ID and profiling has been erratic and poor.
It is possible that DD has finally woken up a bit on a relative basis?
In a column from July where I reviewed his September 2020 interview published in The Athletic, he referenced his view on collective responsibility and reticence to fire people.
Is he going to fire himself?
With many in the support talking about the club "modernizing," what would that look like?
Directionally, it would be hiring someone like Wilfried Nancy, who currently works in one of the more progressive and emerging analytics-focused clubs in MLS, Columbus.
Our @huddlebreakdown audience can attest to the fact that I began commenting that Hearts could have a legit opportunity to win the 2025-2026 season back in February.
I even bet some money on them when they were at 25-1 odds...obviously not because I am "rooting" for them
but because I thought it was badly mispriced...well McKinlay's interview with @mcgowan_stephen makes me feel better about recent decision to have already banked that mispricing.
He speaks with a forked toungue, as has McInnes at times in public. They seem to be engaged in some
combination of preference falsification and/or self-delusion amidst an appeal to the Bloom "authority".
@Alan_Morrison67 and I laid out two anecdotal sign posts on how progressive the adoption and integration of the Bloom revolution would be within the culture at Hearts.
First of all modern western governments pretty much all lie about inflation as a way to cheat on long term entitlement costs. That is a different and hugely important topic, but probably good for 2-4% above what they report.
The Cantillion effect is a concept which states that
during a period of money supply growth, the effects of the monetary inflation are not evenly distributed. Those closest to the expansion (speculators, asset owners, banks, etc) benefit 1st and disproportionately then effects, both good and bad matriculate across society unevenly.
I have been thinking about how to go about doing this review and have settled on doing it in segments. My goal is to lay out an analytical framework for measuring historical performance for Celtic in order to offer context for making performance assessments. This first segment
will lay out the framework and why I am doing this. I decided to look into this as an extension of the analysis I started doing on the recent Celtic seasons about 18 months ago. Like when I began 18 months ago, I didn't have a good sense of what an analysis would yield.
Let me also state that I do not presume to "know" anything. I am putting forth my analysis using the tools I have found available. I've tried my best to source accurate data but there will be some estimations.
I am sharing this because I was going to do it for my own curiousity
Time for the good, the bad, & the ugly from yesterday's Celtic at St Johnstone game. Had a long morning of driving today so a bit late posting. Non-penalty xG was 1.94 vs 0.34 on 10 vs 5 shots. That differential of 1.60 was very close to the avg I shared ahead of the game- 1.51
So I would characterize the overall output as fine. Similar to the St Mirren game, the dispersion of performance levels in the game was skewed late, as had 0.94 xG before Edouard's 1st goal, with 0.40 of that coming on the Duffy chance off the Turnbull free kick delivery.
Celtic also won just 42.32% of duels overall- poorly placed/sloppy passing was widespread. Christie offered 2 moments of excellence which enabled the same from Edouard- other than Edouard's 1st half cross, that was pretty much the entirety of Celtic's attack.