As for $ETH, it's true: at the moment, it looks like one of the worst charts in the industry.
But I've said it many times before: the interesting part for ETH and altcoins is not now ….it will happen between the end of Q4 and, above all, Q1 2026.
The reason is simple.
The ETH/BTC pair is not collapsing randomly: it is consolidating on key support, but it still lacks that final downward push to take liquidity and completely clean up the area. It is the classic slow, boring phase, but one that often precedes stronger cycles.
Then there is the macro context.
QT ends in December, and if we see even a hint of QE in the following months, liquidity will inevitably return to reward riskier assets and therefore altcoins and ETH.
The fact that the RRP (Reverse Repo Facility is a 'parking lot' where monetary and institutional funds can leave liquidity overnight with the FED in exchange for a secure return) is practically empty opens up even more space for this scenario: less absorption, more chance of seeing outflows to the market. An empty RRP means that the FED is no longer absorbing liquidity.
All liquidity returns to the financial system and can flow more easily into the markets.
When this happens, risk assets tend to benefit much more.
In summary:
👉🏻ETH is currently underperforming,
but the structure is laying the groundwork
and the macro environment favours risk assets in the coming months
I will provide updates along the way, but the narrative remains unchanged: ETH's time is not now... it will come later.
But I've said it many times before: the interesting part for ETH and altcoins is not now ….it will happen between the end of Q4 and, above all, Q1 2026.
The reason is simple.
The ETH/BTC pair is not collapsing randomly: it is consolidating on key support, but it still lacks that final downward push to take liquidity and completely clean up the area. It is the classic slow, boring phase, but one that often precedes stronger cycles.
Then there is the macro context.
QT ends in December, and if we see even a hint of QE in the following months, liquidity will inevitably return to reward riskier assets and therefore altcoins and ETH.
The fact that the RRP (Reverse Repo Facility is a 'parking lot' where monetary and institutional funds can leave liquidity overnight with the FED in exchange for a secure return) is practically empty opens up even more space for this scenario: less absorption, more chance of seeing outflows to the market. An empty RRP means that the FED is no longer absorbing liquidity.
All liquidity returns to the financial system and can flow more easily into the markets.
When this happens, risk assets tend to benefit much more.
In summary:
👉🏻ETH is currently underperforming,
but the structure is laying the groundwork
and the macro environment favours risk assets in the coming months
I will provide updates along the way, but the narrative remains unchanged: ETH's time is not now... it will come later.
Ultimately, everything we are discussing ….scenarios, liquidity, possible cycles for ETH and altcoins – hinges on one thing: how the Fed decides to proceed and what message it sends to the market.
There is no such thing as 'safe' in trading.
I can tell you one thing with certainty, simply because I have been in this business for almost 25 years: every time you convince yourself that you are right 'no matter what', the market will put you in your place.
Over time, you realise that the real job is not to guess the future, but to know how to read what is changing: the tone of the FED, liquidity coming in or out, shifting sentiment, price behaviour at key levels.
Above all, you realise that:
you cannot become attached to a scenario
you cannot fall in love with a coin
you cannot remain stuck on an idea just because you tweeted it
You need to be disciplined enough to manage your emotions when the market goes against you, and humble enough to say:
"OK, something has changed, I'll adapt."
This is the point:
it is never the market that bends to your narrative.
If you want to stay in the game in the long run, you have to bend to the market, listen to it and update your plan based on what it does, not what you hope it will do.
There is no such thing as 'safe' in trading.
I can tell you one thing with certainty, simply because I have been in this business for almost 25 years: every time you convince yourself that you are right 'no matter what', the market will put you in your place.
Over time, you realise that the real job is not to guess the future, but to know how to read what is changing: the tone of the FED, liquidity coming in or out, shifting sentiment, price behaviour at key levels.
Above all, you realise that:
you cannot become attached to a scenario
you cannot fall in love with a coin
you cannot remain stuck on an idea just because you tweeted it
You need to be disciplined enough to manage your emotions when the market goes against you, and humble enough to say:
"OK, something has changed, I'll adapt."
This is the point:
it is never the market that bends to your narrative.
If you want to stay in the game in the long run, you have to bend to the market, listen to it and update your plan based on what it does, not what you hope it will do.
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