1/ 𧡠πππ§πππ: πΌπ π«π¨ ππ πΌππππ‘πππ©ππ¨ π½ππ©π©π‘π ππ€π§ π©ππ πππππ‘ & πππ π πΎπππ
Across the shrinking shores of Lake Chad and the wider Sahel, al-Qaeda and Islamic State factions are locked in a brutal fight. It's not about ideology, but power.
Across the shrinking shores of Lake Chad and the wider Sahel, al-Qaeda and Islamic State factions are locked in a brutal fight. It's not about ideology, but power.
2/ Between 5-8 November, Boko Haram launched a rare cross-lake offensive.
Commanders Hassan Buduma and Mohd Hassan led dozens of fighters in motorised boats, firing heavy weapons as they stormed ISWAP-held islands occupied since 2021.
Commanders Hassan Buduma and Mohd Hassan led dozens of fighters in motorised boats, firing heavy weapons as they stormed ISWAP-held islands occupied since 2021.
3/ The fighting was intense and largely onesided. Boko Haram reportedly overran multiple ISWAP bases, seizing seven boatloads of weapons. Only three ISWAP vessels escaped.
Survivors fled to mainland hideouts in Ali Jillimari, Metele, Kangarwa and Gudumbali in northern Borno π³π¬.
Survivors fled to mainland hideouts in Ali Jillimari, Metele, Kangarwa and Gudumbali in northern Borno π³π¬.
4/ Casualties were staggering. Local sources estimate 170β200 ISWAP fighters killed, while Boko Haram claims just four losses.
The islands β long a source of revenue from taxing fishers and herders β are now firmly back under Boko Haramβs control.
The islands β long a source of revenue from taxing fishers and herders β are now firmly back under Boko Haramβs control.
5/ This isnβt the first clash between the two groups.
It echoes the bloodiest precedent, when in May 2021, ISWAP overran Sambisa Forest π³π¬, cornering Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau and pushing him to take his own life. Four years later, JAS appears to have flipped the script.
It echoes the bloodiest precedent, when in May 2021, ISWAP overran Sambisa Forest π³π¬, cornering Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau and pushing him to take his own life. Four years later, JAS appears to have flipped the script.
6/ Lake Chad sits at a strategic crossroads where Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon meet β a hub for smuggling routes, fishing taxes and recruitment.
Boko Haram now signals it will push south toward ISWAPβs heartland in Marte and Ngala. A major retaliation is all but certain.
Boko Haram now signals it will push south toward ISWAPβs heartland in Marte and Ngala. A major retaliation is all but certain.
7/ Far to the west, the same war is unfolding in the Sahel.
In northeastern Burkina Faso π§π«, near the Niger border, JNIM β AQ's regional branch β is battling IS-Sahel. Fighting reignited in September 2025 and has intensified across Oudalan, Yagha and SΓ©no provinces.
In northeastern Burkina Faso π§π«, near the Niger border, JNIM β AQ's regional branch β is battling IS-Sahel. Fighting reignited in September 2025 and has intensified across Oudalan, Yagha and SΓ©no provinces.
8/ By early November, IS-Sahel had mounted a string of bold attacks.
Along the TiguβBurga axis, they pushed JNIM from key positions, killed a senior commander and sparked defections. On 8 Nov, IS-Sahel hit a JNIM camp in Tigou, claiming 36 killed and 34 rifles seized.
Along the TiguβBurga axis, they pushed JNIM from key positions, killed a senior commander and sparked defections. On 8 Nov, IS-Sahel hit a JNIM camp in Tigou, claiming 36 killed and 34 rifles seized.
9/ JNIM didnβt stay silent. On 12 Nov, Ousmane Dicko β the groupβs deputy leader in Burkina Faso β released a fiery audio message, accusing IS-Sahel of colluding with the Burkinabe army.
His warning was blunt: βππ§ ππ πΈπ’π―π΅π΄ πΈπ’π³, π΅π©π¦πΊ πΈπͺππ π©π’π·π¦ πͺπ΅.β
His warning was blunt: βππ§ ππ πΈπ’π―π΅π΄ πΈπ’π³, π΅π©π¦πΊ πΈπͺππ π©π’π·π¦ πͺπ΅.β
10/ These arenβt isolated incidents. From Menaka in eastern Mali π²π± to the Lake Chad Basin, AQ and IS affiliates have been clashing since 2019.
Both sides now divert fighters, weapons and attention from challenging State forces to fighting each other, leaving thousands dead.
Both sides now divert fighters, weapons and attention from challenging State forces to fighting each other, leaving thousands dead.
11/ For regional governments this infighting is a rare opening.
But to turn rivalry into real gains, States must move fast rebuilding force capacity, launching coordinated operations, expanding defector programs and restoring governance.
But to turn rivalry into real gains, States must move fast rebuilding force capacity, launching coordinated operations, expanding defector programs and restoring governance.
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