🧵 1/
#Syria 🇸🇾 today is a chessboard where every actor claims survival, security, or ideology — but the actual game is pure Machiavellian statecraft.
Nobody embodies that better than Netanyahu, who just openly laid out Israel’s Syria strategy in a way few leaders dare. ↓
#Syria 🇸🇾 today is a chessboard where every actor claims survival, security, or ideology — but the actual game is pure Machiavellian statecraft.
Nobody embodies that better than Netanyahu, who just openly laid out Israel’s Syria strategy in a way few leaders dare. ↓
2/
After touring the occupied Golan and Quneitra front, Netanyahu declared:
“Southern Syria is now our buffer zone… under our control. Neither the Syrian army nor Turkey will be allowed in.”
Spelling out the new doctrine of permanent Israeli protectorate carved out of Syria.
After touring the occupied Golan and Quneitra front, Netanyahu declared:
“Southern Syria is now our buffer zone… under our control. Neither the Syrian army nor Turkey will be allowed in.”
Spelling out the new doctrine of permanent Israeli protectorate carved out of Syria.
3/
This statement didn’t happen in a vacuum.
Turkey (the single most disruptive foreign actor inside Syria) has spent a decade weaponizing proxy factions, running intelligence networks, engineering demographic change, and blocking every attempt at Syrian reunification.
This statement didn’t happen in a vacuum.
Turkey (the single most disruptive foreign actor inside Syria) has spent a decade weaponizing proxy factions, running intelligence networks, engineering demographic change, and blocking every attempt at Syrian reunification.
4/
From MIT’s arms shipments to ISIS, to the ethnic cleansings in the North Syria, to the ongoing Sabotage of SDF–STG negotiations — the The AKP–MHP alliance has shaped the war more than anyone.
In The Prince by Machiavelli, there's a quote that perfectly encapsulate them.
From MIT’s arms shipments to ISIS, to the ethnic cleansings in the North Syria, to the ongoing Sabotage of SDF–STG negotiations — the The AKP–MHP alliance has shaped the war more than anyone.
In The Prince by Machiavelli, there's a quote that perfectly encapsulate them.
5/
Then came Netanyahu’s interview with t. me/AliExpress
“We want a modus vivendi with Ankara… but they are stubborn and talk too much. We respond. In practice, we blocked them in southern Syria.”
In Machiavellian terms: We dictate the rules, you adapt.
Then came Netanyahu’s interview with t. me/AliExpress
“We want a modus vivendi with Ankara… but they are stubborn and talk too much. We respond. In practice, we blocked them in southern Syria.”
In Machiavellian terms: We dictate the rules, you adapt.
6/
He also claimed Israel bombed T4 Airbase to stop Turkey. A critical Iran–Syria logistics artery and potential air-defense hub.
Thus preserving Israeli air dominance over Syria — and forcing Turkish troops to turn on their heels.
He also claimed Israel bombed T4 Airbase to stop Turkey. A critical Iran–Syria logistics artery and potential air-defense hub.
Thus preserving Israeli air dominance over Syria — and forcing Turkish troops to turn on their heels.
https://x.com/karimfranceschi/status/1904463403390845004?s=20
7/
Israel has repeatedly targeted Syria's T4 base (6 strikes since '18). The core aims:
->Never allow Syria to rebuild a functional air-defense system.
->Never let Iran establish a protected corridor.
->Never allow a sovereign Syrian state to emerge with military autonomy.
Israel has repeatedly targeted Syria's T4 base (6 strikes since '18). The core aims:
->Never allow Syria to rebuild a functional air-defense system.
->Never let Iran establish a protected corridor.
->Never allow a sovereign Syrian state to emerge with military autonomy.
8/
In citing the “Nagal Committee” report which says Israel should prepare for a possible direct conflict with Turkey.
The Syrian Turkish proxies are seen as a new, powerful threat to Israel.
→ In some scenarios even more dangerous than Iran.
In citing the “Nagal Committee” report which says Israel should prepare for a possible direct conflict with Turkey.
The Syrian Turkish proxies are seen as a new, powerful threat to Israel.
→ In some scenarios even more dangerous than Iran.
9/
Syria will be a permanent buffer zone no matter what: Through force or through deals.
Netanyahu says Syria too has an interest in a security agreement, implying:
The Jolani side wants an arrangement but has conditions: Israel withdraws from areas it has occupied since December 8, 2024
Golan occupied in 1967 isn’t even on the table in those conditions.
Syria will be a permanent buffer zone no matter what: Through force or through deals.
Netanyahu says Syria too has an interest in a security agreement, implying:
The Jolani side wants an arrangement but has conditions: Israel withdraws from areas it has occupied since December 8, 2024
Golan occupied in 1967 isn’t even on the table in those conditions.
10/
Israeli official talk about Jolani going to Washington, returning “overconfident,” wanting to bring Russian troops to the border, etc. → The message:
“Know your limits; don’t overplay your hand.”
At the same time, another Israeli minister mocks Jolani as having nothing but the smell of Trump’s cologne on him – i.e., dismissing his real power.
Israeli official talk about Jolani going to Washington, returning “overconfident,” wanting to bring Russian troops to the border, etc. → The message:
“Know your limits; don’t overplay your hand.”
At the same time, another Israeli minister mocks Jolani as having nothing but the smell of Trump’s cologne on him – i.e., dismissing his real power.
END/
So Jolani is simultaneously:
Useful in Israel’s new regional design (as a counterweight to Hezbollah / Iran),
But kept in his place; if he pushes too far, Israel threatens to crush him.
So Jolani is simultaneously:
Useful in Israel’s new regional design (as a counterweight to Hezbollah / Iran),
But kept in his place; if he pushes too far, Israel threatens to crush him.
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