How to Profit on Correlated Markets in @Polymarket
I've analyzed the current odds across all major markets
And found three working cross-market strategies
Strategy 3 delivers up to 4900% ROI on select cross-markets
> Strategy #1: Calendar Spread (Venezuela)
Summary: One event, different deadlines - trade the time spread.
Markets:
US x Venezuela military engagement by Nov 30 → 35% ($0.35)
polymarket.com/event/us-x-ven…
US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 → 57% ($0.57)
polymarket.com/event/us-x-ven…
Package Logic:
If the event happens before Nov 30:
Nov 30 market = WIN ✓
Dec 31 market = AUTOMATIC WIN ✓ (since November is included in December)
If the event happens between Nov 30 and Dec 31:
Nov 30 market = LOSS ✗
Dec 31 market = WIN ✓
How to trade (step by step):
STEP 1: Enter the first market (Dec 31)
Go to the “US x Venezuela by Dec 31” market
Buy YES (example: $570 = 1000 contracts at $0.57 each)
If the event occurs before Dec 31, you get $1000 back; if not, you get $0.
STEP 2: Hedge through the second market (Nov 30)
Go to the “US x Venezuela by Nov 30” market
Buy NO (example: $175 = 500 contracts at $0.35 each)
You instantly receive this money - insurance if the event happens early.
STEP 3: Calculate your net outlay
Spent on Dec 31 YES: $570
Received from Nov 30 NO: $175
Actual outlay: $570 - $175 = $395
Your max risk is $395.
Scenarios:
If the event happens before Nov 30:
Dec 31 YES wins → $1000
Nov 30 NO loses (nothing more received)
Net: $1000 - $395 = +$605
If the event happens in December:
Dec 31 YES wins → $1000
Nov 30 NO wins → $175 (received up front)
Net: $1000 + $175 - $395 = +$780 ✓✓✓
If the event never happens before Dec 31:
Dec 31 YES loses → $0
Nov 30 NO wins → $175
Net: $175 - $395 = -$220
Why it works:
The market pays 57% for Dec 31, but with a lower true probability spread.
You buy YES below fair value and hedge with NO for November for added efficiency.
> Strategy #2: Contrarian Straddle (MicroStrategy)
Summary: The market doesn’t believe in either extreme scenario, but one must happen.
Markets:
MicroStrategy holds 680k+ BTC → 14% ($0.14)
polymarket.com/event/will-mic…
MicroStrategy margin call in 2025 → 4% ($0.04)
polymarket.com/event/will-mic…
Total probability: 18%
Logic:
Market assumes nothing extreme will happen (82% chance no big move).
BUT in reality: MicroStrategy regularly buys BTC, CEO says more is coming.
One extreme will hit: Either strong BTC growth to 680k+, or a margin call crash.
How to trade (step by step):
STEP 1: Buy YES on 680k+ BTC - $70 (500 shares at $0.14)
STEP 2: Buy YES on margin call - $20 (500 shares at $0.04)
STEP 3: Total spend: $90
Scenarios:
If MicroStrategy reaches 680k+, get $500, lose $20, net profit $410
If margin call happens, get $500, lose $70, net profit $410
If neither happens, lose $90 (your risk)
Why it works:
Pay $90 for a shot at $410+ profit.
Market underestimates the chance that at least one extreme occurs.
> Strategy #3: Logical Arbitrage (Google AI)
Summary: Correlated events are mispriced - exploit the gap.
Markets:
Google has best AI model by Dec 31 → 88% ($0.88)
polymarket.com/event/which-co…
Gemini scores 1600+ on LMArena by Dec 31 → 2% ($0.02)
polymarket.com/event/google-g…
Logic:
If Google is best (88%), their model should hit a high score (1600+).
But the market prices the second at just 2%!
Buy YES on the mispriced Gemini market.
How to trade (step by step):
STEP 1: Buy YES on “Gemini score 1600+” - $20 (1000 contracts at $0.02)
STEP 2 (optional hedge): Buy NO on “Google best AI”
STEP 3: Risk on Gemini is just $20.
Scenarios:
If both events happen: $1000 - $20 = $980 (4900% ROI)
If Gemini doesn’t score 1600+: lose $20
If you hedge ("buy NO" on Google), you get extra payout
Why it works:
Market ignores logical connections, creates major mispricing.
Golden rule (in the case of this strategy):
DON’T trade a single market - trade the CONNECTIONS between markets!
Profit comes NOT from guessing a single outcome,
but exploiting inefficiencies, flawed correlations, and time spreads.
NFA, DYOR, and good luck, Polyfrens!
I've analyzed the current odds across all major markets
And found three working cross-market strategies
Strategy 3 delivers up to 4900% ROI on select cross-markets
> Strategy #1: Calendar Spread (Venezuela)
Summary: One event, different deadlines - trade the time spread.
Markets:
US x Venezuela military engagement by Nov 30 → 35% ($0.35)
polymarket.com/event/us-x-ven…
US x Venezuela military engagement by Dec 31 → 57% ($0.57)
polymarket.com/event/us-x-ven…
Package Logic:
If the event happens before Nov 30:
Nov 30 market = WIN ✓
Dec 31 market = AUTOMATIC WIN ✓ (since November is included in December)
If the event happens between Nov 30 and Dec 31:
Nov 30 market = LOSS ✗
Dec 31 market = WIN ✓
How to trade (step by step):
STEP 1: Enter the first market (Dec 31)
Go to the “US x Venezuela by Dec 31” market
Buy YES (example: $570 = 1000 contracts at $0.57 each)
If the event occurs before Dec 31, you get $1000 back; if not, you get $0.
STEP 2: Hedge through the second market (Nov 30)
Go to the “US x Venezuela by Nov 30” market
Buy NO (example: $175 = 500 contracts at $0.35 each)
You instantly receive this money - insurance if the event happens early.
STEP 3: Calculate your net outlay
Spent on Dec 31 YES: $570
Received from Nov 30 NO: $175
Actual outlay: $570 - $175 = $395
Your max risk is $395.
Scenarios:
If the event happens before Nov 30:
Dec 31 YES wins → $1000
Nov 30 NO loses (nothing more received)
Net: $1000 - $395 = +$605
If the event happens in December:
Dec 31 YES wins → $1000
Nov 30 NO wins → $175 (received up front)
Net: $1000 + $175 - $395 = +$780 ✓✓✓
If the event never happens before Dec 31:
Dec 31 YES loses → $0
Nov 30 NO wins → $175
Net: $175 - $395 = -$220
Why it works:
The market pays 57% for Dec 31, but with a lower true probability spread.
You buy YES below fair value and hedge with NO for November for added efficiency.
> Strategy #2: Contrarian Straddle (MicroStrategy)
Summary: The market doesn’t believe in either extreme scenario, but one must happen.
Markets:
MicroStrategy holds 680k+ BTC → 14% ($0.14)
polymarket.com/event/will-mic…
MicroStrategy margin call in 2025 → 4% ($0.04)
polymarket.com/event/will-mic…
Total probability: 18%
Logic:
Market assumes nothing extreme will happen (82% chance no big move).
BUT in reality: MicroStrategy regularly buys BTC, CEO says more is coming.
One extreme will hit: Either strong BTC growth to 680k+, or a margin call crash.
How to trade (step by step):
STEP 1: Buy YES on 680k+ BTC - $70 (500 shares at $0.14)
STEP 2: Buy YES on margin call - $20 (500 shares at $0.04)
STEP 3: Total spend: $90
Scenarios:
If MicroStrategy reaches 680k+, get $500, lose $20, net profit $410
If margin call happens, get $500, lose $70, net profit $410
If neither happens, lose $90 (your risk)
Why it works:
Pay $90 for a shot at $410+ profit.
Market underestimates the chance that at least one extreme occurs.
> Strategy #3: Logical Arbitrage (Google AI)
Summary: Correlated events are mispriced - exploit the gap.
Markets:
Google has best AI model by Dec 31 → 88% ($0.88)
polymarket.com/event/which-co…
Gemini scores 1600+ on LMArena by Dec 31 → 2% ($0.02)
polymarket.com/event/google-g…
Logic:
If Google is best (88%), their model should hit a high score (1600+).
But the market prices the second at just 2%!
Buy YES on the mispriced Gemini market.
How to trade (step by step):
STEP 1: Buy YES on “Gemini score 1600+” - $20 (1000 contracts at $0.02)
STEP 2 (optional hedge): Buy NO on “Google best AI”
STEP 3: Risk on Gemini is just $20.
Scenarios:
If both events happen: $1000 - $20 = $980 (4900% ROI)
If Gemini doesn’t score 1600+: lose $20
If you hedge ("buy NO" on Google), you get extra payout
Why it works:
Market ignores logical connections, creates major mispricing.
Golden rule (in the case of this strategy):
DON’T trade a single market - trade the CONNECTIONS between markets!
Profit comes NOT from guessing a single outcome,
but exploiting inefficiencies, flawed correlations, and time spreads.
NFA, DYOR, and good luck, Polyfrens!
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