The buildup was needed to showcase the argument that Mali is only one country of the complex and convoluted picture. Without understanding what happened elsewhere, we can't understand what happened here. With @julesdhl map.
Second part of 🧵- the motives and lost dreams.
Second part of 🧵- the motives and lost dreams.
https://twitter.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1991929958726549915
When the last democratic government in this region, under Nigerien President Bazoum, fell in July 2023, many cheered—for true change was on the horizon. The shadow of the French, with their awful reputation, was finally gone, after the back to back military coups in former colonies. Niamey was the final nail in the coffin to that. We are now SOVEREIGN, a word often used ever since to mark the true start of liberty, no longer under Paris's watchful eye.
That eye like Sauron's or Saruman's - if the French wanted us the Malians, Burkinabe, or Nigeriens to turn left, we couldn't possibly turn right. It controlled prices, the gold market, uranium supplies, environment laws and funded terrorists to threaten us, working us to the bone, a work like Sizyphus perhaps.
Ammo? Only if the French allow, so we might aswell shoot with bows and chop trees for arrows, because the French imperialist fears what we would do with that ammo. Even onions weren't spared. The language itself reminds us of the humiliation we suffer in silence, for Paris's Iron Hammer can withdraw support anytime.
Worst of all, the devils of the Seine forced us to negotiate with the Tuaregs or Fulani/Fulbe—old thieves and troublemakers claiming old rights to emirates, sultanates, empires, kingdoms or caliphates on land now rightfully ours (very strong history narrative in the minds of the two jihadi groups, especially regarding Sokoto, Macina and Timbuktu). The land with blood gold, siphoned out all the way to Stambul and Dubai.
Something has to change if we were to make things right. And that change will be us finally wiping out the Arab, Tuareg and Fulani vermins threatening our glorious true African states. And straighting things up with the foreign companies, parasiting our resources for barely any benefit to us here locally. Especially now, when the French overlord is visibly unable to confront jihadists properly and convincingly. And is distracted by the crisis in Europe. We know the craft, we know the people, we know the markets - that's for us to seize. LIBERATION DAY.
And while I am somewhat (somewhat?) overdramatising the whole thought process, I may not be that far from how these people thought to themselves at the time.
Some of the allegations (lack of ammo, interfering in decision making) are true (@MichaelShurkin). That's why there is quite a lot of legitimacy to the grievances that manifested themselves throughout the last few years. It wasn't really that black and white. Especially for us, the Europeans, we have to keep in mind that this story is complicated. The French were arrogant. And the French paid for that.
If only the price wasn't for the Sahel to pay aswell.
The militaries of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger gambled hard, convinced that the time is right - they are strong enough to conjure wind and make rain fall if given the chance to truly confront the jihadists or other rebels(especially Tuaregs). On paper, they had strong arguments. If I were to make a comparison, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 came to mind. Putin had also had a very strong strategy on paper, everything seemed fine and dandy. Russia stronk, three days is all we need to destroy the Kyivian nazis.
The devil hid in the details they have however conveniently forgotten. In Russian case logistics and inability to comprehend the Ukrainian will to survive. Agency of lower nations? Who cares. They had expected flowers and the fake nation kneeling to acknowledge the return of the true sovereign. We know how it ended.
Here, we had a multitude of factors shaped locally. Agency of local foreign elements like Arabs and Tuaregs can go to hell.
The answer and solution to the problems? Besides the mentioned above, like reclaiming control over resources like gold, two main ones come to mind:
-Russian mercenary support
-Turkish drones, Bayraktar and later Akinci, who had started proliferating all over Africa and beyond, given their much cheaper cost than the alternative airforce that needs long and costly training for pilots, maintenance of aircrafts noone can afford.
The gamble begins a few months after the second military coup in Mali with the invitation of Russian mercenaries under the command of infamous Prigozhin, but coordinated by the Russian MOD.
Quickly however, the French discovered that aside from anti-insurgency support the Russians had another mission - to humiliate and kick Paris out of Mali. Genocide has begun as soon as the troops from Russia arrived. In one of the worst attrocities at the beginning of 2022, hundreds of people in Central Mali were slain. Then, the Russians staged a provocation, trying to shift the blame from their actions towards the French military - only to get discovered by a French drone arriving to monitor a suspicious burial ground "Caucasian" looking soldiers were busy digging in and throwing dozens of bodies inside. Later confirmed by indepent investigations from major human rights organizations.
bbc.com/news/61257796
It was only a start of massacres, for in the next three years the Russian presence in Central and Northern Mali has signified only one thing - terror. Enough said, that if you look at the reports of the UN, affiliates and independent orgs, acute hunger risk, famine and genocide were silently being conducted on the territory swept by the Russian military. Most of it unknown to the world. I myself have seen most of what could be documented by the Russians themselves.
After a decade of seeing all kinds of death, rarely can I be surprised or moved by anything anymore. And yet, when I saw a year ago videos of the Malian and Burkinabe armies' cabals eating hearts and livers of the enemies, burning dozens of civilian corpses and calling them spoiled meat, alongside with Fulani mothers hanged on a tree with their children bound together for a theatrical effect, shared and gleefuly laughed at by the Russians, I knew that maybe we are still in for a ride - the devil inside humanity is yet to say the last word.
And so begin the coups in Burkina Faso and one final coup in Niger.
That eye like Sauron's or Saruman's - if the French wanted us the Malians, Burkinabe, or Nigeriens to turn left, we couldn't possibly turn right. It controlled prices, the gold market, uranium supplies, environment laws and funded terrorists to threaten us, working us to the bone, a work like Sizyphus perhaps.
Ammo? Only if the French allow, so we might aswell shoot with bows and chop trees for arrows, because the French imperialist fears what we would do with that ammo. Even onions weren't spared. The language itself reminds us of the humiliation we suffer in silence, for Paris's Iron Hammer can withdraw support anytime.
Worst of all, the devils of the Seine forced us to negotiate with the Tuaregs or Fulani/Fulbe—old thieves and troublemakers claiming old rights to emirates, sultanates, empires, kingdoms or caliphates on land now rightfully ours (very strong history narrative in the minds of the two jihadi groups, especially regarding Sokoto, Macina and Timbuktu). The land with blood gold, siphoned out all the way to Stambul and Dubai.
Something has to change if we were to make things right. And that change will be us finally wiping out the Arab, Tuareg and Fulani vermins threatening our glorious true African states. And straighting things up with the foreign companies, parasiting our resources for barely any benefit to us here locally. Especially now, when the French overlord is visibly unable to confront jihadists properly and convincingly. And is distracted by the crisis in Europe. We know the craft, we know the people, we know the markets - that's for us to seize. LIBERATION DAY.
And while I am somewhat (somewhat?) overdramatising the whole thought process, I may not be that far from how these people thought to themselves at the time.
Some of the allegations (lack of ammo, interfering in decision making) are true (@MichaelShurkin). That's why there is quite a lot of legitimacy to the grievances that manifested themselves throughout the last few years. It wasn't really that black and white. Especially for us, the Europeans, we have to keep in mind that this story is complicated. The French were arrogant. And the French paid for that.
If only the price wasn't for the Sahel to pay aswell.
The militaries of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger gambled hard, convinced that the time is right - they are strong enough to conjure wind and make rain fall if given the chance to truly confront the jihadists or other rebels(especially Tuaregs). On paper, they had strong arguments. If I were to make a comparison, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 came to mind. Putin had also had a very strong strategy on paper, everything seemed fine and dandy. Russia stronk, three days is all we need to destroy the Kyivian nazis.
The devil hid in the details they have however conveniently forgotten. In Russian case logistics and inability to comprehend the Ukrainian will to survive. Agency of lower nations? Who cares. They had expected flowers and the fake nation kneeling to acknowledge the return of the true sovereign. We know how it ended.
Here, we had a multitude of factors shaped locally. Agency of local foreign elements like Arabs and Tuaregs can go to hell.
The answer and solution to the problems? Besides the mentioned above, like reclaiming control over resources like gold, two main ones come to mind:
-Russian mercenary support
-Turkish drones, Bayraktar and later Akinci, who had started proliferating all over Africa and beyond, given their much cheaper cost than the alternative airforce that needs long and costly training for pilots, maintenance of aircrafts noone can afford.
The gamble begins a few months after the second military coup in Mali with the invitation of Russian mercenaries under the command of infamous Prigozhin, but coordinated by the Russian MOD.
Quickly however, the French discovered that aside from anti-insurgency support the Russians had another mission - to humiliate and kick Paris out of Mali. Genocide has begun as soon as the troops from Russia arrived. In one of the worst attrocities at the beginning of 2022, hundreds of people in Central Mali were slain. Then, the Russians staged a provocation, trying to shift the blame from their actions towards the French military - only to get discovered by a French drone arriving to monitor a suspicious burial ground "Caucasian" looking soldiers were busy digging in and throwing dozens of bodies inside. Later confirmed by indepent investigations from major human rights organizations.
bbc.com/news/61257796
It was only a start of massacres, for in the next three years the Russian presence in Central and Northern Mali has signified only one thing - terror. Enough said, that if you look at the reports of the UN, affiliates and independent orgs, acute hunger risk, famine and genocide were silently being conducted on the territory swept by the Russian military. Most of it unknown to the world. I myself have seen most of what could be documented by the Russians themselves.
After a decade of seeing all kinds of death, rarely can I be surprised or moved by anything anymore. And yet, when I saw a year ago videos of the Malian and Burkinabe armies' cabals eating hearts and livers of the enemies, burning dozens of civilian corpses and calling them spoiled meat, alongside with Fulani mothers hanged on a tree with their children bound together for a theatrical effect, shared and gleefuly laughed at by the Russians, I knew that maybe we are still in for a ride - the devil inside humanity is yet to say the last word.
And so begin the coups in Burkina Faso and one final coup in Niger.
In order to, what would become the gamble of all gambles - push Tuaregs out, Mali needed to dismantle the whole security infrastructure that was holding it back. It saved the country a majority of trouble, by shifting various responsibilities and agency to international forces like:
-MINUSMA, the UN-led peacekeeping mission
-French operation Barkhane
-Membership in various institutions or alliances.
Those, while serving peace, at the same time defended the status quo Bamako was enraged to put up with - leaving Tuaregs in charge of the North and de facto enabling al-Qaeda save havens.
They put massive contraints on what Bamako could and couldn't do - especially ECOWAS, the main institutional player of West Africa.
Enough said, that ECOWAS was like a sword hanged above the putchists heads all the way to late 2023, when the organization's mission ended in humiliation - Nigeria was unable to stage the rescue of Nigerien president Bazoum, overthrown under filmsy justifications, just like it couldn't enforce restoration of civilian rule in Burkina Faso after two coups in 2022. Since then, Abuja's prestige significantly declined - it has multiple ramifications, more on it in the 3rd part tommorow.
The coups in Burkina Faso and Niger were met with happiness in Bamako- finally all pieces come together. The juntas quickly banded together to create an alliance - AES, Alliance of Sahel States, that would later become a common operation room and a confederation.
And so, the dismantling of every single stumbling block ensues - UN's MINUSMA kicked out on short notice, with foreign forces unable to properly finish withdrawal. The French, kicked out. The Americans? Also kicked out, from incredibly vital bases in Niamey and above all, from the drone base in Agadez, key for monitoring Islamic State all around Niger, with three affiliates present and multiple other networks. BUT. BUT. Not completely.
One of the main issues I've been having with potrayal of this military coup rage by the media is labeling it "anti-Western". It's been mainly black and white - the West has lost, Russia comes in and takes over.
No, it's not so simple.
If you have followed me for some time, you may have noticed regular updates by me regarding AES behavior towards Western institutions that for a long time has been the symbol of Western supremacy in the minds of conspiracy theorists. And it's drawing a very interesting and certainly different picture - all juntas are in fact, especially the one in Burkina Faso (!), poster boys of almost all of them!
International Monetary Fund, long blamed for all devilry in existence, even issued statements praising Ibrahim Traore, today's God Emperor of pro-Russian propaganda in African internet. Preparing to this writing, I checked how it was going with another controversial matter - USAID, that the more times passes, the consequences of its scrapping by the idiot in charge of DOGE become more dire - thousands of people have already died by simply being refused the access to open already filled with meds magazins, in order to make the meds expire.
I mention this, because it's clear, that USAID's importance to Mali and other countries led by militaries was also crucial in vital industries those states are unable to cope - while it's obvious, that no state should be relying on this level on outside help, reality is what it is.
Now, funding is withdrawn in health, security, teaching departments, maternal safety, agriculture, with numbers visible below - From almost a billion of $ received by Mali since 2022 to 2024, almost nothing is left in 2025. Add to it, the withdrawal of European funding, French funding, the withdrawal of major international humanitarian agencies - and we got a full scale disaster. The disaster now being exploited by JNIM - the representative of al-Qaeda for West Africa.
However, while under law, the Americans were obligated to withdraw from putchists countries and refuse support until the civilian rule restoration, Biden's administration tried to remain cordial with all of them.
That impass got exploited by Trump, who just recently sent US representatives to Bamako, with the junta announcing new cooperation with Washington regarding gold extraction. The Italians are also a very strong presence, especially in Niger - as the only EU force remaining. To call those juntas then as captured by Russia or China is simply untrue. Turkey and UAE are also an important factor (you can check our's with @AleksanderOlech work abw.gov.pl/ftp/foto/Wydaw…)
-MINUSMA, the UN-led peacekeeping mission
-French operation Barkhane
-Membership in various institutions or alliances.
Those, while serving peace, at the same time defended the status quo Bamako was enraged to put up with - leaving Tuaregs in charge of the North and de facto enabling al-Qaeda save havens.
They put massive contraints on what Bamako could and couldn't do - especially ECOWAS, the main institutional player of West Africa.
Enough said, that ECOWAS was like a sword hanged above the putchists heads all the way to late 2023, when the organization's mission ended in humiliation - Nigeria was unable to stage the rescue of Nigerien president Bazoum, overthrown under filmsy justifications, just like it couldn't enforce restoration of civilian rule in Burkina Faso after two coups in 2022. Since then, Abuja's prestige significantly declined - it has multiple ramifications, more on it in the 3rd part tommorow.
The coups in Burkina Faso and Niger were met with happiness in Bamako- finally all pieces come together. The juntas quickly banded together to create an alliance - AES, Alliance of Sahel States, that would later become a common operation room and a confederation.
And so, the dismantling of every single stumbling block ensues - UN's MINUSMA kicked out on short notice, with foreign forces unable to properly finish withdrawal. The French, kicked out. The Americans? Also kicked out, from incredibly vital bases in Niamey and above all, from the drone base in Agadez, key for monitoring Islamic State all around Niger, with three affiliates present and multiple other networks. BUT. BUT. Not completely.
One of the main issues I've been having with potrayal of this military coup rage by the media is labeling it "anti-Western". It's been mainly black and white - the West has lost, Russia comes in and takes over.
No, it's not so simple.
If you have followed me for some time, you may have noticed regular updates by me regarding AES behavior towards Western institutions that for a long time has been the symbol of Western supremacy in the minds of conspiracy theorists. And it's drawing a very interesting and certainly different picture - all juntas are in fact, especially the one in Burkina Faso (!), poster boys of almost all of them!
International Monetary Fund, long blamed for all devilry in existence, even issued statements praising Ibrahim Traore, today's God Emperor of pro-Russian propaganda in African internet. Preparing to this writing, I checked how it was going with another controversial matter - USAID, that the more times passes, the consequences of its scrapping by the idiot in charge of DOGE become more dire - thousands of people have already died by simply being refused the access to open already filled with meds magazins, in order to make the meds expire.
I mention this, because it's clear, that USAID's importance to Mali and other countries led by militaries was also crucial in vital industries those states are unable to cope - while it's obvious, that no state should be relying on this level on outside help, reality is what it is.
Now, funding is withdrawn in health, security, teaching departments, maternal safety, agriculture, with numbers visible below - From almost a billion of $ received by Mali since 2022 to 2024, almost nothing is left in 2025. Add to it, the withdrawal of European funding, French funding, the withdrawal of major international humanitarian agencies - and we got a full scale disaster. The disaster now being exploited by JNIM - the representative of al-Qaeda for West Africa.
However, while under law, the Americans were obligated to withdraw from putchists countries and refuse support until the civilian rule restoration, Biden's administration tried to remain cordial with all of them.
That impass got exploited by Trump, who just recently sent US representatives to Bamako, with the junta announcing new cooperation with Washington regarding gold extraction. The Italians are also a very strong presence, especially in Niger - as the only EU force remaining. To call those juntas then as captured by Russia or China is simply untrue. Turkey and UAE are also an important factor (you can check our's with @AleksanderOlech work abw.gov.pl/ftp/foto/Wydaw…)
But in order to get past 2023, we need to take a look at maps (africacenter.org). They will be an important indicator of events following next.
The first one below is from the time period before the first coup in Burkina Faso ensued - so before January 2022. We can already spot things, I had mentioned in the 1st part - especially regarding National Parks - they are visible on the border with Benin and Togo. Why did the coups in Burkina Faso happen, at least on the surface?
Because the military, first under Damiba, then Traore, accused the government, and the French by association, of failing to stop the spread of jihadists - and in some cases, aiding it by enabling local negotiations.
The first one below is from the time period before the first coup in Burkina Faso ensued - so before January 2022. We can already spot things, I had mentioned in the 1st part - especially regarding National Parks - they are visible on the border with Benin and Togo. Why did the coups in Burkina Faso happen, at least on the surface?
Because the military, first under Damiba, then Traore, accused the government, and the French by association, of failing to stop the spread of jihadists - and in some cases, aiding it by enabling local negotiations.
Traore himself jumped into the seat of power, legitimizing his rule by promising mass reforms and military success - how did it end?
As visible below - apart from his online, turning in complete circus image for the gullible, in total disaster.
According to @p_vanostaeyen who counts the official claims of jihadi groups, in December 2022 there were only 13 JNIM claims related to Burkina Faso. It quickly skyrocketed to have more than 40-50 a month in 2023 and 60-70 in 2024 counterextremism.com/blog/cep-kas-s…
And it has only been getting worse with each year until this late November 2025, with JNIM especially consolidating its rule, though Islamic State is still an important player, recently exploiting JNIM's attention in Western Mali, to gain ground in Burkina Faso at rival jihadists' expense.
This is also the moment, the true battle for access to the Gulf of Guinea markets began - with JNIM starting officially claiming attacks in the vicinity, while covertly establishing massive supply chains in every single country - just having an opportunity to cover up orders in Benin and Nigeria for motorcycles and their spare parts, the important tool for quick expansion, was pure gold as the result. These two countries are the main source of them - with Chinese-owned assembly plants getting an important shadow costumer.
As visible below - apart from his online, turning in complete circus image for the gullible, in total disaster.
According to @p_vanostaeyen who counts the official claims of jihadi groups, in December 2022 there were only 13 JNIM claims related to Burkina Faso. It quickly skyrocketed to have more than 40-50 a month in 2023 and 60-70 in 2024 counterextremism.com/blog/cep-kas-s…
And it has only been getting worse with each year until this late November 2025, with JNIM especially consolidating its rule, though Islamic State is still an important player, recently exploiting JNIM's attention in Western Mali, to gain ground in Burkina Faso at rival jihadists' expense.
This is also the moment, the true battle for access to the Gulf of Guinea markets began - with JNIM starting officially claiming attacks in the vicinity, while covertly establishing massive supply chains in every single country - just having an opportunity to cover up orders in Benin and Nigeria for motorcycles and their spare parts, the important tool for quick expansion, was pure gold as the result. These two countries are the main source of them - with Chinese-owned assembly plants getting an important shadow costumer.
With the situation in Burkina Faso then worsening, in Niger, we had a completely different story - president Bazoum's reforms and outreach to jihadi combatans, calling on them to lay their weapons and promising amesty and support to reintegrate them into society. That resulted in something much different than countries nearby - violence started decreasing.
Here, the main problem was the Islamic State - to the west Islamic State Greater Sahara (Sahel), to the north, Islamic State Libya and to the south-east, Islamic State West Africa. And it's IS, that was the main justification for the coup of general Tchiani - under the accusation that Bazoum negiotiates with terrorists.
Which is hilarious, since everyone there negotaties with each other - in fact, this conflict became this complicated, because Al-Qaeda and Islamic State can actually get persuaded to ceasefire, by offering them weapons, money and exchange of prisoners. This is how the junta in Mali tried to conduct offensives in the North in 2023-2025, by regularly trying to bribe one group to temporarily stop attacking the Malian and Russian forces. Though just recently, the Islamic State conducted a massive operation, consolidating its territorial holding around the town of Menaka, besieging it, just as JNIM holds other cities hostage. The rise of Islamic State in this part of the region, with jihadists clearly operating administration akin to what we know Islamic State in Syria and Iraq for (take a look at my brother Aaron's works), certainly struck fear in the minds of local militaries. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
So starts the coup in Niger - and the final nail in the coffin, with French and American armies asked to withdraw, though it was done way more cordial with Americans.
Here, the main problem was the Islamic State - to the west Islamic State Greater Sahara (Sahel), to the north, Islamic State Libya and to the south-east, Islamic State West Africa. And it's IS, that was the main justification for the coup of general Tchiani - under the accusation that Bazoum negiotiates with terrorists.
Which is hilarious, since everyone there negotaties with each other - in fact, this conflict became this complicated, because Al-Qaeda and Islamic State can actually get persuaded to ceasefire, by offering them weapons, money and exchange of prisoners. This is how the junta in Mali tried to conduct offensives in the North in 2023-2025, by regularly trying to bribe one group to temporarily stop attacking the Malian and Russian forces. Though just recently, the Islamic State conducted a massive operation, consolidating its territorial holding around the town of Menaka, besieging it, just as JNIM holds other cities hostage. The rise of Islamic State in this part of the region, with jihadists clearly operating administration akin to what we know Islamic State in Syria and Iraq for (take a look at my brother Aaron's works), certainly struck fear in the minds of local militaries. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
So starts the coup in Niger - and the final nail in the coffin, with French and American armies asked to withdraw, though it was done way more cordial with Americans.
Mali soon begins the first major operation aimed at the Tuaregs - to take over the rebel capital, Kidal. While the city was taken quite easily (November 2023), it wasn't really a walk in the park. Al-Qaeda was besieging Timbuktu, harassing Gao, Islamic State consolidating territorial hold around Menaka. And here is the moment the junta decided that the final solution to the Tuareg problem is right here, right now, with the aid of Turkish drones and Russian push towards the North, to Algeria. The catastrophe begins.
The junta and Wagner, soon turned Africa Corps, after the death of Prigozhin and subsequent forced take over of the group's assets by the Russian Ministry of Defense, drunk on early success against the Tuaregs, decided to strike iron while it's hot - to reach the border with Algeria, at Tinzawaten. With the reclamation of some of important gold sites, now was the time to cut JNIM and CMA (Tuaregs) from their complex supply lines in Maghreb.
How it ended you can read for example here in my friend's @trbrtc work. With the Tuaregs and JNIM annihilating the Russian expedition completely. nytimes.com/2024/11/01/wor…
The battle of Tinzawaten had a much greater repercussions that it was initially tought. Algeria, an old Russian ally refused to allow Russian and Malian forces to have a great armed presence at its border and started shooting down Turkish drones coming close to Algerian airspace, sparking diplomatic crises between AES, Russia and Algeria.
JNIM, already exploiting extensive Russian and Malian supply lines' overstretch towards the North, had started a significant encroachment in the Center and further West of Mali, reaching unprecedented for the jihadists territory. Just have it in mind, that the French intervened in Mali a decade ago, with al-Qaeda at the time having not even 30% of today's potential and presence on the map.
The junta and Wagner, soon turned Africa Corps, after the death of Prigozhin and subsequent forced take over of the group's assets by the Russian Ministry of Defense, drunk on early success against the Tuaregs, decided to strike iron while it's hot - to reach the border with Algeria, at Tinzawaten. With the reclamation of some of important gold sites, now was the time to cut JNIM and CMA (Tuaregs) from their complex supply lines in Maghreb.
How it ended you can read for example here in my friend's @trbrtc work. With the Tuaregs and JNIM annihilating the Russian expedition completely. nytimes.com/2024/11/01/wor…
The battle of Tinzawaten had a much greater repercussions that it was initially tought. Algeria, an old Russian ally refused to allow Russian and Malian forces to have a great armed presence at its border and started shooting down Turkish drones coming close to Algerian airspace, sparking diplomatic crises between AES, Russia and Algeria.
JNIM, already exploiting extensive Russian and Malian supply lines' overstretch towards the North, had started a significant encroachment in the Center and further West of Mali, reaching unprecedented for the jihadists territory. Just have it in mind, that the French intervened in Mali a decade ago, with al-Qaeda at the time having not even 30% of today's potential and presence on the map.
The whole 2024 was in fact one big show time for al-Qaeda forces, publicly advertised, with many signs visible and not really hidden. Rich photosets boasted of large jihadists' da'wa campaigns across basically all borders of Mali, Burkina Faso. Of special concern were the ones in Western Mali - and in perspective damning. For example, my compilation of one of the photosets shot in late 2024 shows a da'wa (preaching) tour in Kayes province, where the borders with Senegal, Guinea and Mauritania are - and today are the subject of heavy JNIM's presence, with jihadists imposing a large-scale economic blockade, sparking severe crisis in late 2025.
Perhaps, the most single event crashing expectations was the most deadly terrorist attack by JNIM in years , conducted in September 2024 at a Sahelian capital, with them storming Bamako military airport and military academy - with hundreds cadets and soldiers killed, presidential plane put on fire. The sheer logistical effort they had to invest into it had massive ramifications - already exposing the fact that estimations of jihadists' power were wrong, and if anything, were underestimated by a lot.
You have to keep it in mind, that while it was all going on, there were and still are, multiple ongoing sieges of small towns to large cities, JNIM has been able to conduct simultaneously in both Mali and Burkina Faso. For example, the city of Djibo in northern Burkina, with population between 150 000-200 000, has been besieged for almost 4 years - with no end in sight.
There are dozens more and this is still a tip of the iceberg, since JNIM's main goal in both Mali and Burkina Faso have been the old colonial road system, the French built during the peak of Paris's power. To maintain such an extensive network of presence JNIM has needs an extremely well-embededeed manpower, technicians, traders, frequent patrols, and local understanding to foster relations between population and group of jihadists - and JNIM has been methodically working on them, among now all ethnic groups, to portay itself as a universal force, without racism and the defenders of the people, especially with the juntas conducting extermination on their own population.
Traore himself, while being the subject of massive Russian-led propaganda in social media is responsible for giving a green light to cleanse population suspected of collaboration with JNIM, with casualties going in thousands under the fire of Burkinabe army and now infamous VDP militias, volunteers turned into para-miltary gangs, frequently doing cross-border raids and kidnapping people in Ghana, Togo and Benin for ransom.
There are dozens more and this is still a tip of the iceberg, since JNIM's main goal in both Mali and Burkina Faso have been the old colonial road system, the French built during the peak of Paris's power. To maintain such an extensive network of presence JNIM has needs an extremely well-embededeed manpower, technicians, traders, frequent patrols, and local understanding to foster relations between population and group of jihadists - and JNIM has been methodically working on them, among now all ethnic groups, to portay itself as a universal force, without racism and the defenders of the people, especially with the juntas conducting extermination on their own population.
Traore himself, while being the subject of massive Russian-led propaganda in social media is responsible for giving a green light to cleanse population suspected of collaboration with JNIM, with casualties going in thousands under the fire of Burkinabe army and now infamous VDP militias, volunteers turned into para-miltary gangs, frequently doing cross-border raids and kidnapping people in Ghana, Togo and Benin for ransom.
2024 is also the first year with clear signs of both JNIM and Islamic State expansion into Nigeria - with both groups arriving in north-west of the country. JNIM from Benin arabnews.com/node/2533696/a…
and Islamic State under the guise of Lakurawa, or at least a part of that outfit, that is now the subject of heated debates, with the UN speculating Islamic State Sahel was the true actor under the guise of pious anti-bandit protectors and traders with distinct Arab features. And for the first time publishing evidence of group's presence on the Nigerien-Nigerian border near the famous city of the Sahelian Caliphs - Sokoto. To see the extent of that expansion, take a look at @julesdhl map regarding Niger's crisis (julesduhamel.com/niger-map-of-i…).
and Islamic State under the guise of Lakurawa, or at least a part of that outfit, that is now the subject of heated debates, with the UN speculating Islamic State Sahel was the true actor under the guise of pious anti-bandit protectors and traders with distinct Arab features. And for the first time publishing evidence of group's presence on the Nigerien-Nigerian border near the famous city of the Sahelian Caliphs - Sokoto. To see the extent of that expansion, take a look at @julesdhl map regarding Niger's crisis (julesduhamel.com/niger-map-of-i…).
And with this jumping back and forth between multiple areas, we are back to Mali - and the trigger for this write up - the grand economical blockade.
The buildup to what has become the biggest crisis of the colonel Ghoita's administration was preceeded by a show of force in July 2025 - with JNIM force for the first time striking simultaneously all over West and Central Mali. Targets? Economical powerhouses of Mali near Senegal, with all vital industries and supply lines being present here. And while the attack had a debatable result (certainly burnt down some factories), it opened everyone's eyes to the new possibility - Can al-Qaeda-run outfit actually have the strenght to annihilate a Sahelian country's military and establish its own administraion?
This question comes back like a boomerang now almost in the third month of the blockade JNIM started in early September, mainly targeting oil targets heading to the capital of the country.
The buildup to what has become the biggest crisis of the colonel Ghoita's administration was preceeded by a show of force in July 2025 - with JNIM force for the first time striking simultaneously all over West and Central Mali. Targets? Economical powerhouses of Mali near Senegal, with all vital industries and supply lines being present here. And while the attack had a debatable result (certainly burnt down some factories), it opened everyone's eyes to the new possibility - Can al-Qaeda-run outfit actually have the strenght to annihilate a Sahelian country's military and establish its own administraion?
This question comes back like a boomerang now almost in the third month of the blockade JNIM started in early September, mainly targeting oil targets heading to the capital of the country.
The answer is not so easy to determine. While some argue, that JNIM has no proper administrative structure to impose themselves as the governing entity, the sheer power of the organization should make people hold their horses. As previously stated in this analysis, JNIM has established a powerful force across multiple countries, that demands a separate logistical and in fact, administrative network to make sense of all the web across thousands of kilometers.
Can the jihadists then run Mali? I personally think they can - as in they have the ability. They already de facto rule parts of it and recently entered some urban centers in the centre and south-west of the country, also near Bamako.
However, there are a few giant issues JNIM is held back by and in the end may cause the group to continue the slow and methodical encroachment upon all levels of the Malian society - for example by imposing now famous ban on the biggest transport company in Mali, ruling that buses must have separate wings for males and females - with the company officialy apologising to jihadists and conforming to the demand.
One of the issues is the permanent threat of foreign intervention - don't underestimate this direction, especially by the West. There is a possibility of Western-aided invasion by ECOWAS forces, that today with Nigeria under fire from the Americans remains a very understated prospect. Nigeria may conclude, that to make the country safe, the source of major problems, the Sahel, must be contained. JNIM has had an intervention possibility in the back of their minds at all times - hence the group's reluctance to kidnapp Westerners, as opposed to Turks, Emiratis, Russians or Indians recently swept by the jihadists from all over Mali to demand ransom.
In one esppecially brazen kidnapping, an Emirati prince trading with gold was taken hostage and the United Arab Emirates agreed to pay a hefty sum - as much as 70 mln$, of which 20mln$ is suspected to be delivered in ammo. An enormous amount of money for JNIM looking forward to the next steps of the Sahelian crisis. (@SimNasr ) france24.com/en/video/20251…
Another is a matter of inter-jihadi rivalry, with the fight against the Islamic State expanding. In fact, some signs appeared, that Islamic State Sahel, exploiting the shift of JNIM's attention decided to seize parts of Burkina Faso their enemy has had a long hold over. Fear of the Islamic State's backstabbing is big to the extent that some manpower must permanently be stationed behind - using it to empower Malian forces may result in fellow jihadists annihilating JNIM's gains.
Islamic State, also with a new kidnapping campaign aimed at the Western citizens in Niger is now also a threat manifesting itself outwards, including the European Union through plotting confirmed ops in Spain and Moroccan diaspora in Western Europe.
julesduhamel.com/central-sahel-…
Can the jihadists then run Mali? I personally think they can - as in they have the ability. They already de facto rule parts of it and recently entered some urban centers in the centre and south-west of the country, also near Bamako.
However, there are a few giant issues JNIM is held back by and in the end may cause the group to continue the slow and methodical encroachment upon all levels of the Malian society - for example by imposing now famous ban on the biggest transport company in Mali, ruling that buses must have separate wings for males and females - with the company officialy apologising to jihadists and conforming to the demand.
One of the issues is the permanent threat of foreign intervention - don't underestimate this direction, especially by the West. There is a possibility of Western-aided invasion by ECOWAS forces, that today with Nigeria under fire from the Americans remains a very understated prospect. Nigeria may conclude, that to make the country safe, the source of major problems, the Sahel, must be contained. JNIM has had an intervention possibility in the back of their minds at all times - hence the group's reluctance to kidnapp Westerners, as opposed to Turks, Emiratis, Russians or Indians recently swept by the jihadists from all over Mali to demand ransom.
In one esppecially brazen kidnapping, an Emirati prince trading with gold was taken hostage and the United Arab Emirates agreed to pay a hefty sum - as much as 70 mln$, of which 20mln$ is suspected to be delivered in ammo. An enormous amount of money for JNIM looking forward to the next steps of the Sahelian crisis. (@SimNasr ) france24.com/en/video/20251…
Another is a matter of inter-jihadi rivalry, with the fight against the Islamic State expanding. In fact, some signs appeared, that Islamic State Sahel, exploiting the shift of JNIM's attention decided to seize parts of Burkina Faso their enemy has had a long hold over. Fear of the Islamic State's backstabbing is big to the extent that some manpower must permanently be stationed behind - using it to empower Malian forces may result in fellow jihadists annihilating JNIM's gains.
Islamic State, also with a new kidnapping campaign aimed at the Western citizens in Niger is now also a threat manifesting itself outwards, including the European Union through plotting confirmed ops in Spain and Moroccan diaspora in Western Europe.
julesduhamel.com/central-sahel-…
With this, we have reached the end - almost. Tommorow, a much shorter part 3, Nigeria.
Thanks for reaching it all the way here, I admire your dedication if you did! Hoping, the read was interesting to you.
Thanks for reaching it all the way here, I admire your dedication if you did! Hoping, the read was interesting to you.
This thread took a lot of time and effort to put together. It's a foreshadowing of what I would like to do when I come back in March. Humbly asking for any support I can get in my struggle. You can do that through patreon, kofi or paypal.
https://x.com/SaladinAlDronni/status/1931471124950364443
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
