How I see the market right now:
1) 75% probability: we’re about to finish crossing the chasm and enter the early-majority phase next year.
If that happens, the classic 4-year cycles are dead. The market will have matured and will increasingly correlate with macro cycles and industry fundamentals rather than self-fulfilling narratives.
2) 20% probability: we’re still in the early-adopter phase and only now beginning to cross the chasm. Meaning we would likely enter a 1-3 year bear market while the industry finds itself and pushes toward early-majority adoption. In this case, the 4-year cycles could still be intact.
3) 5% probability: we get stuck in the chasm and never find true mainstream pmf, crypto is turning into a zero sum game and we will just PvP trade money from one to the other.
Regulatory tailwinds, institutional adoption, and the accelerating fundamentals of our industry scream, in my opinion, that we’re in scenario 1), standing right in front of the biggest adoption wave crypto has ever seen, and likely ever will see.
The 4 year cycles and simple narrative chasing are dead. And while the onchain online casino will always be part of our identity, it will shrink into a niche. It’s time for the industry to mature and start playing the serious game.
An incredible decade lies ahead for those willing to evolve, and I’m betting basically all my money on the idea that this is only just getting started.
1) 75% probability: we’re about to finish crossing the chasm and enter the early-majority phase next year.
If that happens, the classic 4-year cycles are dead. The market will have matured and will increasingly correlate with macro cycles and industry fundamentals rather than self-fulfilling narratives.
2) 20% probability: we’re still in the early-adopter phase and only now beginning to cross the chasm. Meaning we would likely enter a 1-3 year bear market while the industry finds itself and pushes toward early-majority adoption. In this case, the 4-year cycles could still be intact.
3) 5% probability: we get stuck in the chasm and never find true mainstream pmf, crypto is turning into a zero sum game and we will just PvP trade money from one to the other.
Regulatory tailwinds, institutional adoption, and the accelerating fundamentals of our industry scream, in my opinion, that we’re in scenario 1), standing right in front of the biggest adoption wave crypto has ever seen, and likely ever will see.
The 4 year cycles and simple narrative chasing are dead. And while the onchain online casino will always be part of our identity, it will shrink into a niche. It’s time for the industry to mature and start playing the serious game.
An incredible decade lies ahead for those willing to evolve, and I’m betting basically all my money on the idea that this is only just getting started.
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