After weeks of backroom negotiations, Congress is poised to pass a defense spending bill filled with some rather good provisions to assist Ukraine and put up obstacles to the Trump admin's attempts to divert Ukraine aid or cut off intel support.
Sec. 1241: The new National Security Strategy may not view Russia as a major threat to US interests, but Congress sure does. This requires the administration to submit a formal assessment of the threat Russia poses to the United States and its allies.
Sec. 1242: Regardless of any US peace proposals, Congress is extending its prohibition on the use of funds for the recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied Ukrainian territory, in keeping with decades of policy and helping to deter Russia from future aggression.
Sec. 1243: Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI)
Here's where we're going to get into the weeds on the only military assistance to Ukraine mentioned. As a reminder, the US has zeroed out almost all assistance to Ukraine under the Trump admin.
First, reminder on how the US (used to) militarily aid Ukraine:
Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA)=direct transfers of arms from US stocks.
Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI)=issuing contracts to build new arms for Ukraine.
The Trump administration likely has billions in remaining PDA and USAI authorities, but has not used them this year (this NDAA also mandates reporting on exactly how much remains).
This bill authorizes $400m to USAI for this year and next, and allows it to be used until 2029.
Remember in June when the Pentagon seized 20k anti-drone interceptors built for Ukraine?
Sec. 1243(7) creates new requirements to make that more difficult, and requires the Pentagon to ensure whatever is seized is ultimately replaced for Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/trump-redirect…
Here’s an important point to note: The Trump administration doesn’t want to provide arms to Ukraine without getting paid to do so. Congress is reasserting that it is indeed in the US interest to arm Ukraine. The American public also agrees, according to recent polls.
Repeatedly this year, the Trump admin has threatened to end intelligence support for Ukraine. Sec. 1244 creates new oversight mechanisms requiring Congress to be notified immediately if that happens, signaling there would be serious backlash to such a move.
Sec. 1245: Oversight of US arms sales for Ukraine.
Here's a lengthy but important section. The Trump admin replaced military assistance with arms sales to Europe, largely through the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL). But few have understood how it's working.
Congress is creating new reporting requirements to understand exactly how the admin is using PURL, what it's sending, and to ensure that it isn't double-dipping by getting reimbursed by Europe for arms already paid for by Congress under USAI.
A key goal here is to make sure congressionally appropriated funds to arm Ukraine are being used as intended—essentially, it doesn't want the Trump admin forcing Ukraine or allies to reimburse the US for weapons it already sent or pledged to send.
Sec. 8363: The Abducted Ukrainian Children Recovery and Accountability Act from @ChuckGrassley and @amyklobuchar.
Here's a big win: the Senate passed this legislation to support operations to return Ukrainian kids stolen by Russia, and it made it into the final NDAA.
So what to make of all this?
First, this is the first and likely only legislation passed by Congress to support Ukraine in 2025.
Second, it's hard to force the admin to arm Ukraine. That USAI money isn't mandatory spending. But the NDAA does minimize potential harm.
It's also remarkable to step back and realize just how much US support for Ukraine has ended. It's unlikely it will ever return to levels seen under the last administration as long as Trump is in office, and this legislation does not guarantee new arms to Ukraine.
This NDAA is also better than what either the Senate or House originally passed on their own, and hard work clearly went in to finding ways to continue supporting Ukraine despite an admin that isn't interested in doing so.
Votes to pass this NDAA are expected in the coming days.
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Scoop in @politico: @SenBlumenthal & @GrahamBlog told @ZelenskyyUa they'll push for another Ukraine supplemental this year, as well as to lift U.S. weapons restrictions on Ukrainian strikes into Russia.
Thoughts on why now is the right time and why a new supp is necessary🧵
First, the timing:
People forget what the purpose of the last supp was—the @WhiteHouse originally asked in August for an aid package that would last through 2023. After McCarthy's ouster, it then asked for a supp to last through 2024 to insulate Ukraine from the U.S. elections.
The military assistance in the April supplemental package is largely long-term contracts for production here in the U.S. It replenished the immediate military assistance pot (Presidential Drawdown Authority) by only $7.8 billion. This will last maybe to early 2025.
Head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine @AndriyYermak invokes America’s Founding Fathers, past presidents, and the dark parallels to the rise of Nazism in a direct appeal to Congress to pass aid to Ukraine. A few key quotes 🧵thehill.com/opinion/intern…
“Today, Ukraine hoists democracy’s torch and reflects on the words of John Adams: ‘Liberty must at all hazards be supported. We have a right to it, derived from our maker.’”
“On the cusp of war in 1938, Britain and France negotiated a deal with Nazi and fascist regimes to stop Hitler from waging war. Far from pacifying Hitler, they gave him room to plunge the world into the greatest war the world had ever seen.”
Sources confirm that Trump is directly trying to tank Ukraine/border negotiations to deny Biden a political win and keep immigration as a campaign issue this year.
There's a few ways this might go. Few are good for Ukraine, and above all, precious time has been wasted. 🧵
Despite McConnell's comments, not all Republicans are on board.
"Somebody who is trying to defeat legislation, all in the name of running for office? That is irresponsible," @BillCassidy told @USATODAY. usatoday.com/story/news/pol…
🚨The @guardian has learned a major anti-Ukraine conference will be held in Washington, DC tomorrow.
@Heritage Foundation will bring together Hungarian President Viktor Orbán’s team & Republican congressmen to strategize how to end US support for Ukraine. theguardian.com/us-news/2023/d…
A diplomatic source close to the Hungarian embassy told the @guardian: “Orbán is confident that the Ukraine aid will not pass in Congress. That is why he is trying to block assistance from the EU as well.”
@guardian Ukraine aid was blocked in the Senate last week. That sent a dangerous signal to Putin and other strongmen like Orbán and Xi that our divisions can be exploited to harm Ukraine and weaken America.
Orbán is trying exactly that, tomorrow in Washington and this week with the EU.
We're still getting more details about today's strike against a Russian military airfield at Novofedorivka in occupied Crimea, but a few big implications are already clear.
Chief among them: The West has spent months investing in Ukraine—now we're starting to see the payoff.🧵
A defining feature of this war is how quickly and smartly Ukraine's employed sophisticated weapons systems from a West that hasn't always been eager to provide them.
Each time UA got something, it used it effectively and showed that more and better weapons wouldn't go to waste.
The latest example of this is HIMARS. The West was supremely reluctant to provide multiple launch rocket systems, but after pressure, finally provided them.
By all accounts, the system has been a game-changer.