nic carter Profile picture
Dec 8, 2025 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
I think most Europeans are actually completely ignorant about their track record for arrests for social media posts, probably because their press is captive and the data is almost always heavily censored / not released. But here are the facts:

- UK: >10k arrests per year for "offensive communications", basically mean tweets. in 2022 alone, 77k "public order offences" investigated by police. by far the worst offender.
- Germany: hides and obscures the data. but 4,486 cases of Volksverhetzung (incitement to hatred) in 2018. most of these are online posts. this means we're talking a few thousand arrests for online speech per year
- France: hides the data. about 3000 cases a year for racist offenses that are purely speech-related and carry no actual physical harm (“injures, diffamations, provocation à la haine”)

In the US, posts for merely offensive speech are not criminal. Yes, you can still be arrested for making specific threats, stalking, etc. But you won't get arrested for calling a politician fat, as happens in Europe.

These are plain facts.Image
the EU is welcome to be fundamentally more restrictive about speech if they want to, but don't try to pretend otherwise with some fake metric by an astroturfed nonprofit funded by the EU.

Objectively, America has the freest speech and press on the planet, and it's not even close.
i know this is a successful form of euro ragebait and probably not a sincere post, but it's worth reminding people because the truth about europe today is just so absurd.

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More from @nic_carter

May 18
"AI is hiking your energy bill" is the most popular political talking point of 2026. The data doesn't support it. A thread: Image
I sorted 50 states into data center intensity quintiles. States with the highest datacenter energy share (Q5) VA, TX, NV, IA, OR, AZ... collectively have the lowest and slowest rising mean residential energy prices Image
"but I live in one of those states and my bill went up" – in nominal dollars. in real terms, bills are down in the most datacenter-intense states.

it's inflation, not AI, which is driving up energy prices. Image
Read 11 tweets
May 16
AI datacenters don't cause high electricity prices

Democrats cause high electricity prices. Image
the above chart is obviously too highly compressed to be useful but you can visually sanity-check the data here. data center load doesn't really correlate with residential rates. politics does. Image
sources, assumptions caveats for top chart:

Sources

- Residential electricity prices, 2015–2024: EIA State Energy Data System (SEDS) Table ET3, residential electricity column (ultimately Form EIA-861). Final values, last revised October 2025 release.
- Residential electricity prices, 2025: EIA Electric Power Monthly, monthly state retail prices (Form EIA-861M), compiled in NEADA's Nov 2025 Energy Price Update
- State grouping: 2024 presidential election statewide results

Assumptions

- Nominal (current-year) ¢/kWh – no CPI adjustment
- 2025 estimate = (Jan 2025 + Aug 2025) / 2, used as a midpoint proxy for the calendar-year average
- DC included in blue group; ME and NE grouped by statewide outcome (ME→Harris, NE→Trump), ignoring split electoral votes.
- Group line = median of member states (resistant to Hawaii ~40¢ and California ~30¢ outliers).

Caveats

- 2025 figures are not final EIA annual data; final releases October 2026. Could revise ±0.3¢/kWh per state.
- Residential price = total residential revenue ÷ total residential kWh sales. Mixes generation, delivery, taxes, riders, regulated and competitive supply.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 31
Many are wondering "what Google saw" that caused them to revise their post-quantum cryptography transition deadline to 2029 last week. It was this:

research.google/blog/safeguard…
Specifically, this paper. It's a brand new resource estimate that's wildly lower than prior estimates of what it would take to break ECC-256. Featuring the Google Quantum AI team + Justin Drake + Dan Boneh

quantumai.google/static/site-as…Image
forgot to mention Craig Gidney who is responsible for the main results in this field in recent years.

I suggest reading it, it's very sobering and scary and I expect a lot will change in reaction to it.

my analysis and reaction coming tomorrow.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 16, 2025
Situational Awareness LP 13F filing for Q3 dropped friday:

- Massive >$500m new CRWV position
- Big adds to CORZ and IREN
- Added new miners RIOT, HUT, BITF
- INTC calls unch
- trimmed AVGO & EQT, exited APLD / CEG / CIFR
- added new AI infra LITE, COHR, MOD, WDC, STX Image
Image
(all of these numbers as of 9/30, many of these names sold off since then)

portfolio value counting notional value of options doubled from $2.12b to $4.15b, mostly due to $1.5b of new cash injection, appreciation ~$700m
TDLR massive new CRWV position (plus added puts and calls, but overall very very long CRWV). big adds to CORZ, IREN, RIOT. added AI adjacent names LITE, COHR, MOD, and storage WDC and STX. added smaller BTC miner names.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 11, 2025
the most important thinker in AI, in my opinion, is this 23 year old. leo aschenbrenner.

he has been more right, both in a testable predictive sense and in a market sense than virtually anyone else.

and most importantly, he's not an AI doomer, he's not an e/acc, but rather a secret third thing.Image
leo was a reseacher on the openai superalignment team before he was fired in april 2024 (and before that, he worked at FTX of all places). in june 2024 he published an astonishing essay on AI called "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"

situational-awareness.ai
in the 165-page essay (really, more of a book) he predicts that we will obtain recursively self-improving AI by 2027, leading to an intelligence implosion & AGI. he thinks AI will become a matter of national security and that the US has no choice but to beat China. he thinks we will have full-fledged agents in 2026. he thinks AI efforts will and should be nationalized. he thinks we will build trillion-dollar datacenters before the decade is out. he thinks AI will use 20%+ of US electricity by 2030.

a lot of his analysis is based on simply extrapolating straight lines into the future (compute, FLOPs, model capabilities). the thing is, this has totally held up.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 30, 2025
agreed. it can be fixed sans soft fork for anyone that's live on the network, but old/abandoned coins in vulnerable addresses (p2pk, reused p2pkh) are at risk. no easy way to fix. some quantum timelines have a break by 2030.
and yes bitcoin is more vulnerable than other systems that rely on cryptography, because they can be upgraded to post quantum encryption whereas there's millions of coins in old addresses (assumed lost/inactive owners) which are fundamentally at risk.
basically you have to make your peace with the fact that there's a 2-6m BTC (aka $200b-600b) prize waiting to be claimed by the first entity to achieve quantum supremacy. the other alternative is getting everyone to agree to pre-emptively burn/steal the coins which is unpalatable
Read 4 tweets

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