🚨Make Europe Antifragile NOW !
➡️Antifragility of Europe supports Ukraine's quest to survive.
➡️Adapt to an age of unpeace and lost civilisation from the unstable neo-liberal experiments.
➡️And become a respected global actor again built on social innovation.
.ht @leopricon
➡️Antifragility of Europe supports Ukraine's quest to survive.
➡️Adapt to an age of unpeace and lost civilisation from the unstable neo-liberal experiments.
➡️And become a respected global actor again built on social innovation.
.ht @leopricon
https://twitter.com/leopricon/status/1998394498037031063
2\🧵
The alternative for MEAN, Make Europe Antifragile Again, is:
🔸️Unpeace and loss of civilisation
🔸️Declining trust
🔸️Tremendously rising failure costs.
The alternative for MEAN, Make Europe Antifragile Again, is:
🔸️Unpeace and loss of civilisation
🔸️Declining trust
🔸️Tremendously rising failure costs.
https://x.com/AlleBurgers/status/1996707920298307681?t=zKaxKwzdB5Pll4pQYoKgdg&s=19
3\🧵
Bear in Mind we are near the geopolitically likely "shocks-and-shifts" scenario with an armed "Europe's Financial Nuclear Bomb.”
So, next the "Ghost-Is-Out-Of-The-Bottle" scenario is not as unlikely anymore as the US is thinking.
⬇️
Bear in Mind we are near the geopolitically likely "shocks-and-shifts" scenario with an armed "Europe's Financial Nuclear Bomb.”
So, next the "Ghost-Is-Out-Of-The-Bottle" scenario is not as unlikely anymore as the US is thinking.
⬇️
https://x.com/World_At_War_6/status/1998343114977681472?t=4y-ZaoPeqA9CWDvZHWEatw&s=19
4\🧵
With e.g .ht @ProfSteveKeen we anticipate a cascade of US economic shocks, financial fragility and a recession from:
🔸️Income squeezed consumers turning to unsecured debt
🔸️Trump’s crazy economic interventions
🔸️Bursting of the AI bubble
With e.g .ht @ProfSteveKeen we anticipate a cascade of US economic shocks, financial fragility and a recession from:
🔸️Income squeezed consumers turning to unsecured debt
🔸️Trump’s crazy economic interventions
🔸️Bursting of the AI bubble
https://x.com/ProfSteveKeen/status/1998037825996910716?t=y6QNC2RZBSIIPFuNdKr7rg&s=19
5\🧵
While Europe's share of estimated Treasuries is at $2.34 trillion
Europe holds roughly 25-30% of total foreign-held U.S. debt, with Japan and China holding (very) large chunks too.
While Europe's share of estimated Treasuries is at $2.34 trillion
Europe holds roughly 25-30% of total foreign-held U.S. debt, with Japan and China holding (very) large chunks too.
6\🧵
So, a potential "Atomic Bomb", would flood the Treasury market with supply, driving down bond prices and forcing sellers (central banks, pension funds) to convert USD into e.g. EURO, spark a strong devaluation of the USD (10-20% or more), and triggering a US capital flight.
So, a potential "Atomic Bomb", would flood the Treasury market with supply, driving down bond prices and forcing sellers (central banks, pension funds) to convert USD into e.g. EURO, spark a strong devaluation of the USD (10-20% or more), and triggering a US capital flight.
7\🧵
This USD devaluation make US imports (electronics, consumer goods) far pricier overnight and fuel imported inflation.
This USD devaluation make US imports (electronics, consumer goods) far pricier overnight and fuel imported inflation.
8\🧵
US Treasuries' yields (interest rates) would surge as prices tank, potentially from current ~4-5% levels to 7-10% or higher on longer-dated bonds, based on stress tests.
US Treasuries' yields (interest rates) would surge as prices tank, potentially from current ~4-5% levels to 7-10% or higher on longer-dated bonds, based on stress tests.
9\🧵
With US national debt at $36 trillion, this would balloon annual interest payments from ~$1 trillion today to $2-3 trillion, crowding out govt spending.
Although US can always print dollars, it loses its safe-haven trust.
With US national debt at $36 trillion, this would balloon annual interest payments from ~$1 trillion today to $2-3 trillion, crowding out govt spending.
Although US can always print dollars, it loses its safe-haven trust.
10\🧵
Rating agencies might downgrade US credit, further hiking costs in a vicious cycle.
Rating agencies might downgrade US credit, further hiking costs in a vicious cycle.
11\🧵
Higher yields ripple through to everyday borrowing:
🔸️mortgage rates could jump to 8-10%, auto loans to 12%+, and credit card rates even steeper
🔸️Consumer spending crimps, which drives ~70% of US GDP.
Higher yields ripple through to everyday borrowing:
🔸️mortgage rates could jump to 8-10%, auto loans to 12%+, and credit card rates even steeper
🔸️Consumer spending crimps, which drives ~70% of US GDP.
12\🧵
Businesses face pricier corporate debt, and will cut expansion and hiring, amplifying slowdown.
Weaker USD inflates grocery, hit lower-income households hardest and, with a huge and fast increasing mass-disability due to Long COVID, potentially spark social unrest as well.
Businesses face pricier corporate debt, and will cut expansion and hiring, amplifying slowdown.
Weaker USD inflates grocery, hit lower-income households hardest and, with a huge and fast increasing mass-disability due to Long COVID, potentially spark social unrest as well.
13\🧵
The depth of the recession depends on the pace of Europe's dumping (potentially in tandem with China, Japan and others!) and could contract at 3-5% of GDP in the first year
An aggressive quantitative easing (buying bonds itself) of the Fed risks hyperinflation.
The depth of the recession depends on the pace of Europe's dumping (potentially in tandem with China, Japan and others!) and could contract at 3-5% of GDP in the first year
An aggressive quantitative easing (buying bonds itself) of the Fed risks hyperinflation.
14\🧵
Unemployment (currently at 4.4% and rising) could spike to 8-10%, stock markets crater 30-50% (?), and global trade seize up if the dollar's role as "economic lubricant" falters further.
Unemployment (currently at 4.4% and rising) could spike to 8-10%, stock markets crater 30-50% (?), and global trade seize up if the dollar's role as "economic lubricant" falters further.
15\🧵
Recovery might take years, though US energy independence and domestic manufacturing and tech could cushion it somewhat.
Recovery might take years, though US energy independence and domestic manufacturing and tech could cushion it somewhat.
16\🧵
European dumping of treasuries and securities at fire-sale prices would inflict huge losses on pension funds, banks, and governments, potentially bankrupting institutions and spark their own recessions.
European dumping of treasuries and securities at fire-sale prices would inflict huge losses on pension funds, banks, and governments, potentially bankrupting institutions and spark their own recessions.
17\🧵
In short, the chain of effects is clear: dollar crash → debt strain → spending drop → recession.
However, Europe's geopolitical will is the wildcard, although Europe can be pushed to the brink by the US/Russia conspiracy.
In short, the chain of effects is clear: dollar crash → debt strain → spending drop → recession.
However, Europe's geopolitical will is the wildcard, although Europe can be pushed to the brink by the US/Russia conspiracy.
18\🧵
Russia is the first to lose. The US is the most at risk. Europe has to overcome a severe recession/depression.
Russia is the first to lose. The US is the most at risk. Europe has to overcome a severe recession/depression.
19\🧵
What is clear; US appeasement is exit, and antfragility is the name of Europe's new game.
No more humiliating "Thank you Daddy." Never again!
What is clear; US appeasement is exit, and antfragility is the name of Europe's new game.
No more humiliating "Thank you Daddy." Never again!
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