When Alex Nowrasteh of the Cato Institute asserts that I'm "confused" about jargon in the trust literature, is he correct?
Of course not. Bayesians, update accordingly.
New post at Heterodox STEM, generously hosted by @DorianAbbot, Uslaner and Keefer cameos.
Short🧵:
In a new response to my Heterodox STEM post, Nowrasteh says "Garett cites older papers that used inconsistent terminology."
But Keefer, a founder of trust+growth regressions, uses interpersonal trust as a synonym for generalized trust in 2022 and 2025.
I like being ecumenical about definitions whenever possible. Academic jargon varies by field, even subfield.
Just look at how macroeconomists and finance experts use the same word: Investment.
But when someone claims I'm "confused," it's valuable to respond.
A quote from my piece:
--
First, let’s start with Eric Uslaner... 6600 [cites]... Uslaner writes:
The interpersonal trust question that has been so important in much research on social capital does reflect generalized trust.
I could just stop right there but let’s continue..
At the end of my latest essay at Heterodox STEM, hosted by @dorianabbot, I focus on works by economists, Knack, Keefer, & Zak.
These are classic papers in the macro+trust field; note that above, Keefer used interpersonal trust as a synonym for generalized trust in 2022 & 2025.
In TCT, I cover the trust literature in part because, as I wrote, "so many people have studied the topic of immigrant trust... the tires have been kicked for years... [B]ut trust isn't the only thing that matters for prosperity."
The paper does not show foreigners commit crimes at the same rate as Germans
Instead, it claims to explain why foreigners commit crimes at higher rates than Germans.
So the title is the opposite of the truth.
Academics, please point out this error candidly, openly.
I hope @tylercowen & @ATabarrok will note the misinterpretation of multivariate regression in this paper.
And @mattyglesias could help the cause of improved empirical debates by pointing the difference between claiming something is false versus explaining why it's true.
This Reuters post about the study gets at part of the issue, what economists call overcontrol bias, what I've called an Everest Regression:
"Controlling for barometric pressue, Everest is the same altitude as Death Valley."
In Ek's excellent new @JPolEcon piece on migrants to Sweden, he reports a "significant dispersion in human capital across countries [of origin] with a 90/10 percentile ratio of 3.2."
So, which are at the 90th percentile?
The ethics review board wouldn't let him tell us.
🧵:
The screenshot above is from his ReadMe file here, part of a ZIP that includes all of the replication data.
These words should be enough to find the files via a Google search:
"Replication Data for: Cultural Values and Productivity"
You can see the replication folder includes the cross-country data in an Excel file-- with countries listed by number, not name.
"FodelseLandnamn" translates to "Birth country name," so that might have been the one column Ek was required to change by the Lund ethics board.
"A great example of Jones’s descriptive abilities lies in a description of task diversity.. by Adam Smith.. The positive channels of diversity are limited to specific settings, while the negative channels of diversity are broader & more likely to be realized."
"Jones’s greatest strength is in his ability to distill novel research into easy-to-understand concepts... His examples are excellent and easy to follow, and he frames the problems in a way that promotes further curiosity and exploration."
"Cardinal Richelieu [favored] talent importation, encouraging... the establishment of small, industrious communities of Spanish conversos... and discreetly shielding these economically productive ‘peregrinos’, or wanderers, from persecution."
Saint-Simon on how banning Protestantism hurt French productivity:
"The revocation of the Edict of Nantes... depopulated a quarter of the realm, ruined its commerce, weakened it in every direction... banished our manufactures to foreign lands, made those lands flourish and… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…