🚨 Powell Confirms QE Starts December 12th. Here’s What It Means for #Bitcoin & Altcoins 🚨
The Fed just quietly restarted QE but they’re calling it something else.
Here’s the full breakdown and how I’m positioning into April 2026 🧵👇
The Fed just quietly restarted QE but they’re calling it something else.
Here’s the full breakdown and how I’m positioning into April 2026 🧵👇
1/x Yesterday's FOMC meeting confirmed two things:
✅The economy is weakening.
✅ QE officially begins on December 12th.
Powell avoided the word 'QE', but the Fed’s statement makes it clear: the balance sheet starts expanding again next week.
✅The economy is weakening.
✅ QE officially begins on December 12th.
Powell avoided the word 'QE', but the Fed’s statement makes it clear: the balance sheet starts expanding again next week.
2/x Unemployment ticked up from 4.2% → 4.4%.
That small change forced today’s 25 bps cut and signals the Fed is shifting toward a full easing cycle.
But the cut itself was already priced in at ~89% probability.
The real story today wasn’t rates, it was liquidity.
That small change forced today’s 25 bps cut and signals the Fed is shifting toward a full easing cycle.
But the cut itself was already priced in at ~89% probability.
The real story today wasn’t rates, it was liquidity.
3/x Rate cuts matter far less than QE.
Crypto moves with liquidity, not the cost of borrowing.
🔸QT drains liquidity → crypto bleeds.
🔸QE adds liquidity → crypto recovers.
Yesterday was the first confirmed liquidity expansion since 2021.
Crypto moves with liquidity, not the cost of borrowing.
🔸QT drains liquidity → crypto bleeds.
🔸QE adds liquidity → crypto recovers.
Yesterday was the first confirmed liquidity expansion since 2021.
4/x The key reveal was the new paragraph in the FOMC statement.
The Fed will begin buying short-term Treasuries 'as needed to maintain ample reserves.'
This is QE.
They’re just calling it Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs).
The Fed will begin buying short-term Treasuries 'as needed to maintain ample reserves.'
This is QE.
They’re just calling it Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs).
5/x The Fed followed up with the real number:
🔸$40B/month of Treasury bill purchases.
🔸 Starting December 12.
🔸 Running at this pace until April.
After April, purchases slow but QE does NOT reverse.
QT is over.
🔸$40B/month of Treasury bill purchases.
🔸 Starting December 12.
🔸 Running at this pace until April.
After April, purchases slow but QE does NOT reverse.
QT is over.
6/x Why now? Liquidity hit a breaking point.
🔸Reverse Repo Facility drained from $2T → near $0.
🔸Banks began tapping the Standing Repo Facility.
🔸Fed funds rate drifted to the top of the target range.
This is exactly what happened before the 2019 repo crisis.
The Fed had to act.
🔸Reverse Repo Facility drained from $2T → near $0.
🔸Banks began tapping the Standing Repo Facility.
🔸Fed funds rate drifted to the top of the target range.
This is exactly what happened before the 2019 repo crisis.
The Fed had to act.
7/x What does this mean for #Bitcoin?
From Dec to Apr, U.S. liquidity will rise by ~$160B.
That’s enough for:
🔸A $BTC rebound.
🔸A retest of the 50W SMA.
🔸A relief rally in altcoins.
But it is not enough to create new ATHs on its own.
From Dec to Apr, U.S. liquidity will rise by ~$160B.
That’s enough for:
🔸A $BTC rebound.
🔸A retest of the 50W SMA.
🔸A relief rally in altcoins.
But it is not enough to create new ATHs on its own.
8/x The big wildcard is the Treasury General Account (TGA).
The TGA currently holds $937B, this is negative liquidity.
🔸If the Treasury unwinds even $90B, total liquidity rises toward $5.85T.
🔸If the proposed Tariff Dividend passes in 2026, that’s another $215B-$450B injection.
That’s when things get explosive.
The TGA currently holds $937B, this is negative liquidity.
🔸If the Treasury unwinds even $90B, total liquidity rises toward $5.85T.
🔸If the proposed Tariff Dividend passes in 2026, that’s another $215B-$450B injection.
That’s when things get explosive.
9/x Liquidity required for $BTC to reclaim highs:
🔸 $BTC only makes new highs when U.S. and global liquidity trend upward together.
🔸Base QE gets us a rebound.
🔸TGA + tariff stimulus is what gets us an uptrend.
Without those, BTC likely stalls at major resistance.
🔸 $BTC only makes new highs when U.S. and global liquidity trend upward together.
🔸Base QE gets us a rebound.
🔸TGA + tariff stimulus is what gets us an uptrend.
Without those, BTC likely stalls at major resistance.
10/x My base case into April:
🔸QE drives a BTC bounce.
🔸 $BTC retests the 50W SMA.
🔸Alts recover slowly.
🔸No new ATH unless liquidity expands further.
I remain 80% $BTC / 20% alts but I am trading alts, not holding them long-term yet.
🔸QE drives a BTC bounce.
🔸 $BTC retests the 50W SMA.
🔸Alts recover slowly.
🔸No new ATH unless liquidity expands further.
I remain 80% $BTC / 20% alts but I am trading alts, not holding them long-term yet.
11/x How I'm trading it:
🔸Short-term alt rotations.
🔸2-3 week holds.
🔸Grid bots for volatility
🔸Profits rotated back into $BTC
The real trend decision comes in April when QE slows and TGA decisions become clearer.
🔸Short-term alt rotations.
🔸2-3 week holds.
🔸Grid bots for volatility
🔸Profits rotated back into $BTC
The real trend decision comes in April when QE slows and TGA decisions become clearer.
12/x Final thoughts before I wrap up:
QE is confirmed. The liquidity trend has turned. $BTC and alts finally have a real tailwind.
But this is a bounce setup, not a confirmed bull market.
Stay flexible. Follow liquidity. Adjust in April.
QE is confirmed. The liquidity trend has turned. $BTC and alts finally have a real tailwind.
But this is a bounce setup, not a confirmed bull market.
Stay flexible. Follow liquidity. Adjust in April.
13/x If you want to see the bots I'm running for this QE window:👉 bacon.link/all-bots
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