Thread by @UnclemanBoomer

@vtchakarova SCENARIO 1
No hot war between the USA, CHN, & RUS

Prediction:
No direct large-scale military war between the USA, CHN & RUS in the foreseeable future

Why:
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1/

@vtchakarova - No actor can win a great-power war quickly or at acceptable cost
- Economic, technological, and supply-chain interdependence makes escalation self-damaging
- A multi-theatre war would overstretch all sides simultaneously
-Nuclear escalation risks are uncontrollable
2/

@vtchakarova (& offer no strategic upside)
- All actors gain more leverage from rivalry, pressure, and signaling than from open war

Bottom line: High tension, sharp rhetoric & competition will continue. Direct great-power war remains irrational & avoidable.

SCENARIO 2
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2/

@vtchakarova SCENARIO 2
No CHN military attack on TWN

Prediction:
China will not launch a direct military attack on Taiwan in the short to mid-term

Why:
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3/

@vtchakarova - An attack against TWN would likely trigger coordinated sanctions from the USA & Europe
- Japan and Australia would almost certainly align, multiplying economic and technological costs
- Additional Indo-Pacific partners would raise trade, logistics & insurance risks
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4/

@vtchakarova - CHN economy depends on maritime trade, exports, energy & food imports
- Sanctions & disruption would create serious internal economic and social stability pressures
- Pressure, coercion & long-term positioning are far cheaper than invasion

Bottom line:
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5/

@vtchakarova - CHN prefers sustained pressure and deterrence signaling
- The costs of invasion far outweigh the benefits

SCENARIO 3
No direct military confrontation between RUS & Europe

Prediction:
No nuclear exchange & no direct conventional war between RUS and Europe

Why:
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6/

@vtchakarova - European military capabilities have strengthened significantly (Nordics, POL)
- GER & others are improving long-term military readiness
- Any direct attack would trigger rapid escalation with no clear gain
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7/

@vtchakarova - Economic, energy & infrastructure damage would be long-lasting for all sides
- Non-kinetic tools (information, political pressure, hybrid tactics) are more effective and safer

Bottom line:
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8/

@vtchakarova - Confrontation will continue below the kinetic threshold -> RUS applies different methods against different countries in Europe (kin/mech/ideol/moral)
- Deterrence is strong enough to prevent direct war
- High tension ≠ high probability of war

No full-scale wars (3 scen.)
9/9

@vtchakarova Because it's a long answer: unroll @threadreaderapp