At this point, taking the actual operation, Trump’s press conference, and Delcy Rodriguez’s press conference into consideration, it seems fairly certain (though of course, unconfirmed) that Maduro was given up by the remaining government apparatus in a back channel deal. 1/x
They likely used the only card they had to play: only we can ensure stability; the alternative - a full regime change with oppo installed in power - would result in chaos and bloodshed that the US would then have to manage with troops on the ground. 2/x
In exchange, they gave Trump two things: oil (for cash) and Maduro (for show). Plus ancillary players get some of what they wanted: Hegseth gets his macho moment and Rubio gets to strangle Cuba. 3/x
But, chest beating aside, the remaining Ven gov’t now has to do Trump’s bidding with a massive Damocles sword over its head. Not that they mind: ideology has long been dead for them. Of course, in geopolitics everything can change on a dime. 4/x
But that’s what it looks like to me as this long day turns to night, with MCM as the biggest loser among the notable players. And as always, those who will bear the biggest brunt are Venezuelans, in Ven and out. For them, the tragedy continues. FIN
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
