Thread by @financefelix

$4.7 trillion will flood the US economy in just 9 months—creating the largest wealth transfer in American history.

This is Trump's tax plan to inflate their debt away.

Institutions are already positioned for this.

Here's what's happening and how to position too: 🧵

This 4.7 trillion doesn't hit all at once. It flows in five distinct waves.

Wave 1 (Apr-Jun): Tax refunds starting late Feb.
Wave 2 (Jul-Sep): Corporate repatriation
Wave 3 (Q4): Bonus depreciation
Wave 4 (Q4): Capital expenditure boom
Wave 5 (late 2026): Inflation response

Let me break down the $4.7T so you can understand it:

• $1.2T in tax refunds ($8,500/household)
• $2.1T corporate cash from overseas
• $1.4T accelerated depreciation

That's 3x bigger than the 2008 bailout and 20% of the entire US economy hitting in just 9 months.

History shows what happens with tax cuts: 2017 cuts ($1.5T) = S&P up 28%.

• Bush cuts = small caps up 47%.
• Reagan cuts = Dow up 135% over 5 years.

This is 3x larger with record low unemployment, Fed rate cuts, and pent-up demand.

Wave 1 (NOW-Feb): Smart money positions BEFORE refunds hit.

Small caps outperform, consumer discretionary rallies, homebuilders surge.

In late 2016 before tax cuts, small caps beat S&P by 9 percentage points in 3 months.

The front-running phase is happening right now.

Wave 2 (Late Feb-Jun): $1.2T hits consumer accounts.

• 35% goes to debt repayment
• 25% discretionary spending (travel, home upgrades)
• 20% savings
• 20% essentials

Winners: Amazon, Walmart, airlines, hotels, brokerages like Robinhood, credit card companies.

Wave 3 (Jul-Sep): $2.1T Corporate Repatriation.

Apple, Microsoft, Google bring overseas cash home at reduced rates.

40% goes to stock buybacks, 30% dividends, 20% M&A, 10% investment.

Tech giants and dividend aristocrats rally hard.

Wave 4 (Q3-Q4): $1.4T business capital expenditure via bonus depreciation.

Companies write off investments immediately.

Industrials (Caterpillar, Deere), construction, infrastructure, AI/automation benefit.

In 2017, industrial stocks surged 34% from this exact catalyst.

Wave 5 (Late 2026): The inflation buck. $4.7T flooding in causes real inflation.

Trump's lowering oil, capping credit cards, but if stocks rise 25% while salaries don't, your cash lost 25% value.

Shift to inflation hedges aka assets: energy stocks, gold, silver, commodities.

Top sectors and stocks I'm looking at (not advice):

• Consumer: Amazon, Home Depot, Walmart.
• Tech: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet.
• Financials: JPMorgan, Visa, Robinhood.
• Energy: Exxon, Chevron

Each wave favors different sectors—timing matters enormously.

Positioning by quarter:

• Q1-Q2: Small caps, consumer discretionary, retail.
• Q2-Q3: Tech (QQQ), dividend stocks, financials (JPMorgan, Goldman).
• Q3-Q4: Industrials, commodities, gold/silver.
• Late 2026: Energy stocks

Bottom line: We're witnessing the largest planned wealth transfer in US history.

This $4.7T flood creates millionaires AND destroys unprepared portfolios.

The window closes fast—institutions are positioning NOW, not later.

Want the complete breakdown with exact tickers, timeline, and risk management for each wave?

Just comment "TAX" below and I'll send the full positioning guide covering all 5 waves, sector rotation tactics, and inflation hedges.

Completely free—understand what institutions see

If this helped you understand what's coming before it's on news headlines, follow for more.

I break down market news and cycles so retail investors can position ahead of the crowd—and capitalize on major wealth transfers the way institutions do.