Thread by @jessezwick

Bc Measure ULA reform will get a vote on Tuesday it’s time I share a personal story.

I was approached in 2021 by advocates working on a permanent source of funding for affordable housing in LA.

As a big proponent of affordable housing, I was all in. What could go wrong? (1/11)

At the time, advocates weren't set on where the revenues should come from, but soon the idea of a real estate transfer tax came into focus.

Having read @ShaneDPhillips 2020 paper on this subject, I was intrigued... but also wary. (2/11)

lewis.ucla.edu/research/trans…

@ShaneDPhillips As Shane laid out, transfer taxes had the potential to claw back a lot of undertaxed land value appreciation that had been sheltered by CA’s Prop 13.

But they also risked discouraging productive investment.

The good news was there was an easy fix. (3/11)

@ShaneDPhillips Exempt new construction from the tax!

That way, if you sit on land for 30 years and your value skyrockets through no work of your own, you pitch in at time of sale.

But if you invest 100 million dollars in building homes people desperately need, you don't get penalized. (4/11)

@ShaneDPhillips Needless to say, I was confused when advocates unveiled a proposal to tax *all properties* valued north of $5 mil.

I said, what about multifamily, where this will function as a tax on new apartments?

I said, what about 2 and 3 and 4 million dollar single-family homes? (5/11)

@ShaneDPhillips They said, this isn't about taxing single-family homeowners.

They said, this is about taxing bad people like Geoffrey Palmer.

They said, that's the only way you make this work politically in LA. (6/11)

@ShaneDPhillips Now, I don't like Mr Palmer. But I'm pretty sure you shouldn't make public policy to punish people you don't like.

And on the politics, Culver City had passed a transfer tax that included single-family homes and exempted the first sale of new projects *the year before* (7/11)

@ShaneDPhillips Needless to say, they did their thing...

But I tell this story now bc I'm frustrated by claims I keep hearing that there is *nothing wrong* with the way this tax was designed.

Not only do we see it clearly in the data today, but it was known back then at the time. (8/11)

@ShaneDPhillips I support reforming Measure ULA bc, like @nithyavraman, I want to protect its goal of funding affordable housing.

Conversely, if we just go on vibes, instead of actual outcomes, we end up with something that is simply not defensible. (9/11)

@ShaneDPhillips @nithyavraman At @HACdotorg, we aspire to a conversation around housing in LA that is values-based but also data-informed.

If our goal is a Los Angeles everyone can afford, we need that conversation to be a smart and honest one. (10/11)

@ShaneDPhillips @nithyavraman @HACdotorg Tomorrow's vote is an important step in the right direction and I encourage folks who agree to support it (11/11)

actionnetwork.org/letters/suppor…