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Daniel Dale Profile picture
@ddale8
Feb 3 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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Here's a quick thread on just one of many examples of how the White House is twisting statistics to make a rosy case for Trump’s tariffs.
President Trump, while touting his tariffs, claimed in his Davos speech last month, “Factory construction is up by 41%.” But The Wall Street Journal and others noted that spending on factory construction is actually *down* this year compared to last year, and has fallen steadily month after month: wsj.com/livecoverage/s…Image
Here’s the federal data. It shows spending on manufacturing construction rising in 2021 under Biden, spiking in 2022 and 2023 under Biden, leveling off under Biden in 2024, and then falling month after month under Trump in 2025. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCO…Image
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So...what’s the deal? Trump revealed the answer in the op-ed under his name last week in the Journal, writing: “Factory construction is up by 42% since 2022.” 2022!
By comparing 2025 numbers to *2022* numbers, Trump is effectively crediting his 2025 tariffs/2025 economic agenda for the spike in factory construction spending under Biden in 2023…even as that factory construction spending falls month after month in 2025.
“It’s interesting he would take credit for something that transpired during the Biden administration,” Anirban Basu, chief economist for construction industry group Associated Builders and Contractors, told me yesterday. Basu said that there was a boom in factory construction after Biden's Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act – but the data clearly shows “that boom ends in 2025.” He said the tariffs are a major reason why. /end

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More from @ddale8

Daniel Dale Profile picture
Oct 29, 2024
We ran an article Friday about how the Trump campaign has made a habit of deceptively using quotes in its TV ads, cutting out words and taking stuff way out of context.

Then the campaign released the most egregious example yet. Here's a thread on deceptive quotes in its new ad.
The ad purports to quote the New York Times as writing, “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes.”

Here’s what the Times actually wrote: “Harris is seeking to significantly raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans and large corporations.” nytimes.com/2024/08/22/us/…Image
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As a narrator talks about Biden’s “open-border policies,” the ad purports to quote CBS as writing, “Harris vows to keep Biden’s border.”

Here’s what CBS actually wrote: “Harris vows to keep Biden's border crackdown: ‘The United States is a sovereign nation.’” cbsnews.com/news/kamala-ha…Image
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Read 7 tweets
Daniel Dale Profile picture
Sep 20, 2024
Thread:

Sen. JD Vance claimed VP Kamala Harris and the immigrant influx have caused a big increase in murder in Springfield.

Except…Springfield had significantly more murders under President Donald Trump than it has had under Biden-Harris:

cnn.com/2024/09/20/pol…
Specifically, Vance claimed on TV that murder in Springfield has increased 81% “because of” Kamala Harris and her policies. Here are Springfield’s official annual murder numbers from 2013 through the first half of 2024. 2/ Image
So where did he get “murders are up by 81% because of what Kamala Harris has allowed to happen to this small community”?

His team says he was comparing…the 2023 # (9 murders) to the 2021 # (5).

That’s an 80% increase. But, uh, many issues here: cnn.com/2024/09/20/pol…
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Read 5 tweets
Daniel Dale Profile picture
Nov 2, 2022
That’s quite the spin. The size of Social Security checks is linked, by law, to inflation (ssa.gov/cola/#:~:text=…). This year’s increase is unusually big because the inflation rate is unusually big.
It’s true that this year’s increase is the biggest in years. Very much not sure “there was big inflation and therefore also, as required by decades-old law, a big cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security” is what people think of as an example of presidential leadership
Biden falsely said today, "On my watch, for the first time in 10 years, seniors are getting an increase in their Social Security checks." There was an increase (again, tied to inflation!) every year of Trump's term. Biden has previously done a correct version of this claim -
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Dale Profile picture
Oct 31, 2022
Thread: The FBI's newly released criminal complaint against the man charged with attacking Pelosi features a summary of a Mirandized interview in which, per the FBI summary, *the man himself* essentially debunks the conspiracy theories about the incident.
How did DePape get into the house? "DEPAPE stated that he broke into the house through a glass door, which was a difficult task that required the use of a hammer."
Motive: "DEPAPE stated that he was going to hold Nancy hostage...DEPAPE articulated he viewed Nancy as the 'leader of the pack' of lies told by the Democratic Party...DEPAPE also later explained that by breaking Nancy’s kneecaps, she would then have to be wheeled into Congress.."
Read 6 tweets
Daniel Dale Profile picture
Oct 17, 2022
When NBC’s Welker reminded Herschel Walker he’d earlier in the campaign opposed all exceptions on abortion, he said, “No no no. I said I’m for life. I never said I didn’t have any exception.”

Walker in May: “There’s no exception in my mind…No exceptions, I believe in life.” 1/
That’s not all. Walker filled out a questionnaire from an anti-abortion group. They specifically asked which exceptions he supports. He checked off none of them. 2/ irp.cdn-website.com/d51b2a5e/files…
This is at least the second time this campaign that Walker has falsely denied, on camera, having said something he previously said, on camera. He previously falsely denied ever once claiming he’d graduated from college. 3/ cnn.com/2022/05/25/pol…
Read 4 tweets
Daniel Dale Profile picture
Oct 10, 2022
This is a dishonest claim. The truth: *the National Archives* sorted Bush docs for his library in a heavily secured facility (patrols, cameras, sensors) that happened to be a former alley/restaurant. As with Obama docs the Archives took to Chicago, Bush didn’t take them himself.
Here’s a 1994 article about the Archives’ work with Bush documents in the secure facility that happened to be a former bowling alley/restaurant. Trump made it sound like Bush himself had carelessly taken docs to an alley/restaurant. latimes.com/archives/la-xp…
And here's a 1993 WaPo article about NARA using a former alley to temporarily house Bush documents. No equivalence between "NARA takes docs to NARA facility that used to be something else" and "Trump takes docs to his home and won't give them back to NARA" washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…
Read 5 tweets

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