Trump just screwed the ranchers & farmers who voted for him
He's the first POTUS to use a 1995 law to expand US beef imports above WTO quotas
He's trying to help a failing rightwing Argentine leader buddy.
This move is not about & won't result in lower US beef prices...🧵1/
The US has had record-level beef imports for the past 3 years, and that hasn't reduced consumer prices.
The US still is the world's largest beef producer. But 4 corps now control 85% of US beef processing. (Was 35% in 1980.) The monopolists have power to set high prices. 2/
Importing $1B/100K tons of Argentine beef won't change the meatpacking monopolists' power to rig high consumer prices. But it will hurt the ranchers who packers have been squeezing. (Dairy farmers too. The EO says hamburger meat only aka old milk cows) 3/
The EO claims the US cattle herd is at a 75-year low from recent draught/wildfires. But the increased consolidation of beef processing has simply wiped out so many cow/calf beef ranches forced to accept below-production-cost prices from whatever one packer remained nearby. 4/
Instead of using existing authority to break monopolies screwing both US farmers & consumers aka fixing the US market problems causing the problem or even a 1st step by stopping Tyson's closure of a big Nebraska packing plant, the POTUS who hates imports is increasing them? 5/
Beef trade rules are complex. When WTO started, the US set an amount of beef it would import duty-free. Above that quota, beef was tariffed 26.4%. Past POTUSs have reallocated dutyfree quota to dif nations. This latest move increases the total amount of duty-free beef imports. 6/
That is why Trump-supporting ranchers were so upset when the plan to increase duty-free beef imports that this proclamation just implemented was first annnounced in October 2025. 7/
Trump increasing the beef import quota is different from the 11/14 EO cutting beef (& coffee, banana) tariffs
The Nov. EO just removed NEW Trump reciprocol tariffs. It didn't add new pain for farmers -- even if also not helping lower consumer prices 8/8 whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/20…
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Good morning - join me in getting ready for the 10 AM landmark Supreme Court oral arguments on the cases that will decide if Pres. Trump has constitutionally valid authority to impose his broadest tariffs. You can listen in live to the Court here 1/ supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments…
ICYMI, here's the memo I wrote explaining the stakes. This is an very consequential cases deciding limits on presidential power w/ big implications for accountable governance. Tariff rates arent the core issue...there are other authorities for that. 2/ rethinktrade.org/wp-content/upl…
If you prefer to listen not read, this conversation yesterday on @OnPointRadio yesterday lays out the stakes well! wbur.org/onpoint/2025/1…
The Fed. Circ. Appeals court just ruled on Trump's tariff authority, affirming the Crt of Intl Trade that the Int'l Emergency Economic Power Act doesnt provide authority for the expansive "reciprocol" & "fentanyl" tariffs. But nuanced...6 key things: 1)The tariffs stay in place🧵
at least until mid-Oct. The ruling is stayed to allow the administration to decide whether to appeal to the Sup Court. AG Bondi said they are. When they file for certiori, the ruling will be stayed/tariffs stay until Sup Court decdes. Here's the ruling 2/ storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
2) Many people expected the Fed Circ would rule that Trump cannot use IEEPA to unilaterally impose/lift tariffs on all nations indefinately of varying/high rates… BUT the actual 127-page document from the court has some very surprising aspects: 3/
BREAKING: Trump admin just whacked tariff collection & import inspection w/ a waiver of Customs rules! This undercuts promised May 2 end of de minimis loophole tariff evasion for China’s goods & “Liberation Day” revenue. Why? DHL is bragging re “constructive dialogue” w/ admin.🧵
The change is stealthy. Per image above, on April 28, the admin quietly did a Fedl Register notice waiving longstanding Customs rules requiring “Formal Entry” for goods valued $250+ subject to ‘penalty’ tariffs, which post April 2 is almost everything 2/ federalregister.gov/documents/2025…
This is a big deal: HOW goods enter US is key. “Fornal Entry” requires full info, like tariff codes to ID goods, a USG-licensed Customs Broker (to hold accountable), etc. Formal Entry is required & “Informal Entry” barred for goods w/ penalty tariffs. 3/ ecfr.gov/current/title-…
Here’s my promised deep dive 🧵on Trump’s tariff plan. Every time I’ve been about to post, the policy changed… Yesterday Trump announced a 90-day implementation pause on certain tariffs and upped China rate - but the agenda is still based on the April 2 plan. Let’s dig in👇👇 1/
The market drops partly reflect powerful corporate/financial interests not wanting change. But it’s also from tariff MALPRACTICE. I unpack why April 2 moves have been all downside/no upside. But, now, most critical is maximum TRANSPARENCY in negotiations during pause. 2/
Absent transparency, we could end up with the worst of all outcomes: Trump makes a bunch of bad special interest deals and his tariffs’ high transitional pain never result in rebalancing, more US manufacturing capacity or goods jobs. 3/ rethinktrade.org/press-releases…
There are lots of hot takes on Trump’s April 2 tariffs, some wildly uninformed and/or silly. I will share my own concerns. But first, here’s what we actually know so far about tariff rates, covered countries, excluded goods, and the de minimis loophole: 🧵 1/
TARIFFS: 10% add'l on every nation but MX & Can where goods meeting USMCA rules are duty-free, non-conforming get a 25% duty, & Can oil is 10%
57 nations have higher rates listed in EO Annex I. There is no stacking on the 10%. So China=34% EU=20%,etc. 2/ whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
Commerce Dept’s blue charts w/ tariffs listed for rando isles–given to reporters, proudly displayed by Sec. Lutnick at the launch event & skewered online – seem to be sloppy art. Really. The EO rules: Penguins on uninhabited isles are spared. 3/
🧵about Trump’s 2/1/2025 tariff “plan”… Tariffs are a powerful, effective tool to deliver certain goals. But Trump’s Canada/China/Mexico tariffs make zero sense. And even undermine tariffs’ legit uses, as the UAW president rightly notes. 1/11
The official stated purpose of 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Candian goods and 10% on all Chinese goods (added to 20ish% existing tariffs on 2/3 of Chinese imports) is pressure re. fentanyl trafficking and unauthorized migration 2/11 whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
Using tariffs to try to achieve these goals is like trying surgery using a saxophone – wrong tool! So, maybe fentanyl/migration were named as “emergencies” to gain use of the Int'l Emergency Economic Powers Act, the speediest authority a president can access for tariffs? 3/11